The Big Vikings Draft Question: Will They Trade a Massive Haul for Drake Maye?

How much might the Vikings be willing to give up to go get Maye?

Nov 25, 2023; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) / Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

The Vikings are going to select a quarterback in the first round of the draft tonight. The burning questions are which one — and with what pick?

There are a lot of signs that point to the Vikings being big fans of Drake Maye, who is projected as the No. 3 overall pick. Maye, who was coached in high school by Vikings QB coach Josh McCown, has arm talent and physical tools that can't be matched by anyone in this class outside of top pick Caleb Williams. His footwork and other mechanics need development, but the Vikings have the coaching staff in place to do that.

Assuming the top two picks are Williams and Jayden Daniels, the intrigue of the draft will begin when the Patriots are on the clock with the third pick. Every indication has been that they're going to stay put and take Maye unless they get blown away by an offer. The two teams rumored to have interest in moving up to 3 are the Giants (who pick 6th) and the Vikings (who have picks 11 and 23). Will one of those teams make New England a historically huge offer to get a deal done?

Expect the Patriots to take Drake Maye at number three tonight unless someone - Vikings or Giants - makes them an offer they just can’t refuse.

— Tom E. Curran (@tomecurran) April 25, 2024

It's a fascinating decision from the Vikings' perspective. If they've identified Maye as the guy they want, believing he's going to become a star in the NFL, one can make the argument that they should give up whatever it takes to go get him. After all, there's nothing more important and valuable in the sport than a star quarterback, especially one that's on a rookie contract for a while.

But if the price is really as high as it seems, the Vikings would be taking a huge risk. Let's say the price is picks 11 and 23 this year, next year's first-round pick, and a second-rounder in 2026. That would leave them without a first-rounder until 2026 and without a second-rounder until 2027. Outside of Maye, they wouldn't have a single top-90 pick in this year's draft or next year's draft. That would seemingly go against what GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah believes in.

"I know we talk about quarterback a lot and it is the most important position in our sport, but it's the most important position in a team sport," Adofo-Mensah said earlier this month. "It’s not just getting the quarterback right; it's getting the quarterback right and the team around it. If you look at our offseason, in a sense, it's kind of the go between, between quarterback assets and everything else. I think our draft will follow the same suit. I don't think you want to necessarily go take these huge swings and not be able to build a team around them."

"It's always about walkaway prices," he said later in the presser. "Your only leverage in the negotiation is your willingness to do something else."

Then again, if Maye were to become a star, it wouldn't really matter what the Vikings gave up, considering everything that they already have in place on the offensive side of the ball. Maybe the team's ownership wants Adofo-Mensah to do whatever it takes to get O'Connell's preferred quarterback. Because that possibility exists in theory, it wouldn't be all that shocking to see the Vikings trade a massive haul to go get Maye at 3.

The other course of action, which basically all of the prominent draft analysts are predicting, is that the Vikings take J.J. McCarthy somewhere in the 5-11 range. That way, they could hold onto at least some of their current and future draft capital, while still getting a quarterback who seems like a great fit for O'Connell's offense. That feels like the approach that's more in line with Adofo-Mensah's philosophy. And with history indicating that teams have a hard time identifying which quarterbacks are going to succeed, it might be the smarter approach.

The longer the Vikings wait on McCarthy, though, the greater the odds that someone else snipes him from their grasps and they end up settling for Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix. That's what makes tonight so fascinating.

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