Could the Vikings Have a Top 10 Offense and a Top 10 Defense in 2021?
Since it's May and that means it's time for optimism, allow me to drive the Vikings hype train a little bit by saying this: there's a realistic chance Minnesota could have both a top-ten offense and a top-ten defense in 2021.
That would presumably result in being a legitimate contender in the NFC.
The offense doesn't require much explanation given that the Vikings were just a top-ten unit on that side of the ball last season (fourth in yards per game, 11th in EPA per play, eighth in DVOA).
The four key skill position weapons are still around in Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen. Irv Smith Jr. will be just 23 years old this season and is a breakout candidate in year three. And most importantly, the Vikings might actually have a league-average offensive line this year with rookie starters Christian Darrisaw and Wyatt Davis. Garrett Bradbury is another year three breakout candidate with the best guard situation (Davis and Ezra Cleveland) that he's had next to him during his NFL career.
Regression and injuries are obviously possible, and losing either Cousins or Jefferson for a long time would be borderline impossible to overcome. The O-line being fixed is also no sure thing. But on paper, this absolutely looks like it could be a top-ten unit once again with Klint Kubiak leading the way.
Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com recently ranked her top ten offenses for 2021, with the Vikings coming in at No. 8.
Don't sleep on the Vikings this season. The addition of Christian Darrisaw with the No. 23 pick last month addressed a real problem that matters for this style of offense and how Kirk Cousins executes it. Minnesota ranked 23rd last season when it came to its rate of sacks per pass attempt (7.6%). Basically, when defenses had a good sense the Vikings were passing, pressure increased and Minnesota's efficiency went down. One way to see this is that the Vikings ranked 16th on third down (40.9 percent conversation rate) despite having the third-most earned first downs per game (23.9). With a rushing average of 4.9 yards per attempt (fourth in the NFL) and a passing figure of 8.3 yards per attempt (second), the Vikes were creating the right opportunities and making the most of them, just not keeping the sequencing efficient enough.
Then there's the defensive side of the ball, where the Vikings were awful last season. Mike Zimmer called it the worst defense he's ever had, and he was right. Minnesota finished towards the bottom of the league in virtually every category.
But as Vikings fans know, there's a lot of context needed. Just take a look at this graphic showing the team's starting defense last December and its projected starters this fall.
Danielle Hunter and Michael Pierce didn't play at all last year, and Anthony Barr was done after one game. Eric Kendricks missed the last month-plus. Then the Vikings went out and added Dalvin Tomlinson, Patrick Peterson, and Mackensie Alexander in free agency, while only slightly downgrading from Anthony Harris to Xavier Woods at the safety spot opposite Harrison Smith. Jeff Gladney's legal situation is unfortunate, but Cameron Dantzler showed signs of being a legit No. 1 corner last year and has added some weight this offseason.
Third-round draft picks Chazz Surratt and Patrick Jones II might even be able to help out a little as rookies.
There are still valid reasons to be concerned about the pass rush (Hunter is coming off injury and there's a lack of proven options behind him) and the cornerback situation (Peterson bouncing back isn't a lock), but it's also not too difficult to imagine Mike Zimmer turning this into a standout defense once again. 2020 was a major aberration for Zimmer.
And hey, don't just take it from me. Bleacher Report's recent power rankings of every NFL defense put the Vikings at No. 10.
These are both optimistic outlooks, there's no doubt about that. But it's not unrealistic to think that if a few things break right, the Vikings could have a top-ten unit on both sides of the ball.
As for the special teams...
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