Dalvin Cook Staking Claim as NFL's Top RB, Emerging as Dark Horse MVP Candidate

Cook has been unstoppable over the past two weeks, putting up historic numbers for the Vikings.

Dalvin Cook's last two games are the stuff of legend. 

When the Vikings needed it most, their best player put the team on his back and led the way to a pair of victories that have restored life to what seemed like a lost season. In wins over the Packers and Lions, Cook did something that running backs simply don't do in this era of the NFL: dominate as the focal point of the offense. In doing so, he has not only staked a nearly unassailable claim as the league's top back, but has also crept his way into the MVP conversation at the midway point.

Prior to suffering a minor groin injury halfway through a heartbreaking loss to the Seahawks in Week 5, Cook was playing at an extremely high level. He exploded for 199 yards from scrimmage against the Titans, although that was somewhat overshadowed by Justin Jefferson's breakout game. He followed that up with 146 yards against the Texans in the Vikings' first win of the season, and had over 90 yards in the first half in Seattle. Cook had scored at least one touchdown in every game – a league-leading seven in total – through five weeks.

But what he's done over the past two Sundays has been on another level – a historic, virtually unprecedented level. After the groin injury caused Cook to miss a home loss to the Falcons that represented rock bottom for the Vikings, he healed up over the bye week and has returned with a vengeance. Admittedly aided by a resurgent offensive line and matchups with two subpar run defenses, Cook has gone ballistic in November.

It began with a 226-yard, four touchdown performance at Lambeau Field that saved the Vikings' season. In windy conditions, Cook was the team's entire offense in a stunning upset win. Then, a week later, he somehow outdid himself, racking up 252 yards from scrimmage and two more scores against the Lions. His total stat line for that stretch sounds like something a five-star recruit would put up in high school: 56 touches, 478 yards, six touchdowns.

“Just turning it loose," Cook said after Sunday's win, which brought the Vikings to 3-5 on the season. "Just trying to do it all for my team to get a win. Obviously, we started this thing behind the 8-ball. And like I said last week, we lost some games that we wasn’t supposed to lose, and we know that. We’re just trying to play catch-up and I’m just trying to give my team a fighting chance. You’ve got to commend the guys up front: receivers, tight ends, my whole O-line, fullback, all those guys, man, for making this thing open for me to hit some holes and get some daylight out there."

The statistics are one thing, and there are a lot of them. Here are a few:

• Cook's 369 rushing yards are the most in a two-game span in Vikings history, breaking a record held by Adrian Peterson (366, twice).
• Cook has more rushing yards than nine entire teams despite playing just 6.5 games.
• Cook is the third player ever with at least 225 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in consecutive games, joining Jim Brown in 1963 and Deuce McAllister in 2003.
• Cook leads the NFL in scoring with 84 points. The next 20 leading scorers are kickers.
• According to Next Gen Stats, Cook has 238 rushing yards over expected. No one else has more than 112.

It goes on and on. While one can still theoretically make a case for the likes of Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, or Christian McCaffrey as the NFL's best running back, there's no argument about who has been the most productive in 2020. Cook leads all running backs in rushing yards, first downs, forced missed tackles, and touchdowns, not to mention advanced metrics like PFF grade, expected points added, and success rate. He's showing exactly why the Vikings signed him to a five-year, $63 million contract extension this offseason.

What's been just as impressive as the numbers over this two-game stretch is the way Cook has done it. He's used every tool in his arsenal: breakaway speed, vision, acceleration, agility, power, balance – you name it, he has it. Cook has 15 gains of ten or more yards since the bye, including a 50-yard touchdown off of a screen pass against the Packers and a 70-yard touchdown to ice the game against the Lions. There simply aren't any weaknesses to his game right now. And even though defenses know what's coming, frequently stacking eight or more in the box, they still can't stop it.

"I feel extremely blessed to have him as a teammate," said linebacker Eric Kendricks. "It’s cool as an old football fan, thinking about when I was a kid when I used to love watching running backs play. Now watching him, this is kind of that reality as myself, I get to watch him living out his dreams. He’s a special player. The best in the league, in my opinion."

All of a sudden, Cook's unparalleled production over these two wins has made him a dark horse MVP candidate. Sportsbooks in Vegas currently give him roughly the eighth or ninth-best odds to win the award, with all of the players ahead of him being quarterbacks: Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and a couple more.

The 2020 NFL MVP will be _______ 🤔 pic.twitter.com/1yfbpgDMNH

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) November 9, 2020

In the modern NFL, the MVP is a quarterback award. The last non-QB to win it was Cook's predecessor in Minnesota, Peterson, who was crowned MVP after nearly breaking the all-time single-season rushing record in 2012. Coincidentally, Peterson was on the opposite sideline for Cook's huge day at U.S. Bank Stadium last Sunday. Given that context and what we know about value and efficiency – which is a conversation for another day – QBs like Wilson, Mahomes, and Rodgers are deservedly the clear frontrunners. Running backs typically have to settle for Offensive Player of the Year, like Todd Gurley did in 2017 after an incredible season.

But if Cook keeps this up, it will be hard to keep him out of the discussion. He's on pace for 26 total touchdowns, which has only been done four times (all of them between 2000 and 2006), and more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage. Cook is in a somewhat unique place in that he means more to his team than almost any other RB in the league. The Vikings are handing the ball off more than anyone else in the NFL, as they've clearly made it their philosophy to lean on Cook and limit what Kirk Cousins has to do in the passing game. 

As for his "value" – the Vikings almost certainly would've beaten the Seahawks if Cook didn't leave that game in the second half, and they may well have been competitive against the Falcons had he been available. Alexander Mattison is talented in his own right, but they're inarguably a different team when Cook is out there.

Two things will have to happen for Cook to even sniff the MVP: he has to stay healthy, and the Vikings have to reach the playoffs. Injuries have been his Achilles' Heel throughout his career, with Cook missing 19 of his first 48 games due to various ailments. If he's going to be in the MVP conversation, he has to be on the field and producing at a high level for the final eight games. Crucially, team success needs to come with that; Cook will only warrant consideration if the Vikings are able to miraculously go from 1-5 to reaching the playoffs.

Next up is a matchup with the divisional opponent that has given Cook the most trouble in his career. The Vikings travel to play the Bears on Monday night and will look to pick up a rare win at Soldier Field. Back in 2018, Cook made his Chicago debut and was held to ten yards on 12 touches while losing a fumble. In his last two games against the Bears, he had a pedestrian 130 yards on 35 touches.

If the Vikings can pull out a win in primetime, they'll be 4-5 heading into a stretch of three winnable home games against the Cowboys, Panthers, and Jaguars. According to ESPN analytics, they have the fourth-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. It's not difficult to envision the Vikings at 6-6 or 7-5 as they head to Tampa in Week 14, but it starts in Chicago.

As long as Cook is healthy, the Vikings are going to ride him as the centerpiece of their offense as they look to continue an impressive turnaround. If Cook continues at even 60 or 70 percent of the pace he's set over the past two weeks, it's not out of the question that he could become the first non-QB since Peterson to win the league's highest individual award. 

Even if that's out of reach, Cook is validating the Vikings' investment in him and proving himself to be the best running back in the NFL.

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