Five key matchups that will decide the Vikings-Lions showdown

This looks like one of the best games of the NFL season so far.

Dec 24, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) makes a leaping catch in front of Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph (31) and cornerback Cameron Sutton (1) during the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The Vikings and Lions are set to battle at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday in one of the most highly-anticipated games of the NFL season so far. These are the top two teams in the league in point differential and DVOA, and the winner gets first place in the NFC North and the NFC as a whole. It doesn't get much better than this when it comes to mid-October matchups.

Let's dive into five key matchups that will go a long way towards determining the outcome.

1. Ben Johnson vs. Brian Flores

The showdown between the Lions' high-flying offense and the Vikings' aggressive, league-best defense promises to be utterly fascinating. Led by creative coordinator Ben Johnson, Detroit leads the league in scoring at over 30 points per game and has averaged nearly 45 points over its last two outings. Everything about their offense is impressive: scheme, offensive line, skill position weapons, Jared Goff's efficiency. They're a load to deal with.

The same can be said about the Vikings' defense, which tops the NFL in DVOA and opponent EPA per play by wide margins. The Vikings have 20 sacks and 13 takeaways (including a league-high 11 interceptions) in five games. Brian Flores' group has been incredibly consistent. The chess match between Johnson and Flores, whose scheme is known for its complexity and deception, will be extremely high-level stuff. As Flores said this week, he likes to "fight fire with fire." Get your popcorn ready.

2. Jared Goff vs. Vikings' defense (and crowd noise)

The coaching staffs will put the game plans in place and call the plays, but it's the 11 guys on the field on each side of the ball who have to execute. For the Lions' offense, that starts with Goff, who struggled a bit in the season's first two games (3 INTs) but has completed 82 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and one pick since Week 3. During that span, Goff easily leads all quarterbacks in EPA per play and completion percentage over expected.

Can the Vikings and their stable of playmakers find a way to break up some passes and add to their interception total? It won't be easy against a QB as locked in as Goff, but he also hasn't seen a defense like this one so far this year. Keep a close eye on linebacker Ivan Pace Jr., who will be in a full-time role with Blake Cashman out. Another factor to keep in mind is the crowd noise; the last time the Vikings played at home, the atmosphere totally threw off the Texans in what has been C.J. Stroud's roughest game of the season by far. It's going to be awfully loud in that building.

3. Jonathan Greenard vs. Penei Sewell

There are so many specific individual matchups we could dive into, but Greenard against Sewell is as good as it gets. Despite the Vikings having their bye last week, Greenard ranks third in the league in pressures, per PFF. He's one of only two players, along with Aidan Hutchinson (who is unfortunately out for the season), with at least five pressures in every game this season. That streak will be put to the test against Sewell, who might be the best right tackle in the league and has allowed only five total pressures all year. The Vikings will move Greenard around, but he typically sees plenty of the opponents' RT, so that's a battle to watch.

As a unit, the Vikings need to find ways to get pressure on Goff without having to blitz all the time. They've sacked him just twice in the last four meetings between these teams (though the first two of those were with Ed Donatell at DC). That won't be easy against the Lions' offensive line, which is very solid at all five spots.

4. Sam Darnold vs. the Lions' safety duo

With Hutchinson out for the year, the Lions' two best defensive players might be safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph. That duo has combined for seven interceptions this year while each earning elite PFF grades between 88 and 90. They're different players, but Branch is the Lions' version of Josh Metellus as an ultra-versatile chess piece who lines up all over the field. Joseph also splits his time between free safety and box/slot alignments in his own right.

"Branch has such a unique skill set as a guy that’s really a safety nickel," Kevin O'Connell said this week. "He can play corner. He can really play in any spot in their secondary. He tackles incredibly well, he's a good blitzer, really tight coverage player and then he's got great zone eyes as well, no matter where he is ... super instinctive. There's a level of physicality that Joseph plays with. You’ve got to know where he is, and they each play their own individual roles but there's some versatility with both and I think they're great communicators and really fit well with what (Aaron Glenn) wants to be doing defensively."

Darnold and the Vikings will need to need to keep tabs on both of the Lions' safeties are at all times, because the path to a Minnesota win has to involve taking care of the football and hitting explosive plays in the passing game. If the Vikings can limit the game-wrecking impact of Branch and Joseph, they should have some favorable matchups with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison going against a young cornerback group that might be without Carlton Davis.

5. Ed Ingram vs. the Lions' interior DL

Detroit is going to have a tough time generating edge pressure via Josh Paschal and James Houston against the Vikings' elite tackle duo, which makes their interior pass rush a crucial factor in this game. Alim McNeill, who just signed a four-year extension worth up to almost $100 million this week, has 13 pressures over the last two games. Levi Onwuzurike is also a quality pass rusher from the defensive tackle spot, and then there's veteran nose D.J. Reader.

That trio will be going against a Vikings interior line that includes right guard Ed Ingram, who is potentially one moe poor game in pass protection away from losing his job to the now-healthy Dalton Risner. This might be Ingram's last stand, and if he struggles, it could impact the entire game plan for the Vikings' offense.