Five Takeaways From the Vikings Giving Kirk Cousins a One-Year Extension Through 2023

The Vikings have no plans to rebuild. They're going for it this year with Kirk Cousins at QB.

The Vikings and new general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah have made their long-awaited Kirk Cousins decision, signing the veteran quarterback to a one-year, $35 million extension on Sunday night. The fully-guaranteed deal lowers Cousins' 2022 cap hit by nearly $14 million and keeps him in Minnesota (with a no-trade clause) through the next two seasons.

It's a fascinating first move by Adofo-Mensah for a number of reasons. Let's dive into five takeaways from the Vikings' decision to extend Cousins through 2023.

The Vikings aren't rebuilding

As recently as earlier in the day on Sunday, it was worth wondering if the Vikings would blow up their roster or reload and aim to contend this year. The Cousins extension makes it clear that the Wilfs were serious when they said they had no plans to enter a rebuild. Whether or not that's the right decision is its own discussion — which I'll get to shortly — but at least we know which approach Minnesota is taking.

There won't be any "Year 0" excuses for Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O'Connell in 2022. By extending Cousins, the Vikings are signaling that they plan to compete for a division title and make a playoff run this season. The pressure is now on Adofo-Mensah to improve the roster around Cousins — and on O'Connell to get more out of Cousins through his coaching and offensive scheme.

"Kirk was one of the first players I called when I joined the Vikings, and it was immediately clear how much he cares about this organization and about winning," Adofo-Mensah said in a statement. "High level quarterback play is a prerequisite to building a championship team, and we are confident Kirk will continue along that path."

Cousins is a master of the financial side of the NFL

Arguably no player in modern NFL history has managed to succeed more than Cousins when it comes to the business side of the league, relative to what they've actually accomplished on the field. He went from fourth-round pick to starter in Washington, signing franchise tags in 2016 and 2017 before getting a fully-guaranteed $84 million free agent deal from the Vikings in 2018. Cousins then signed big-money extensions in 2020 and again in 2022.

Cousins has now secured fully-guaranteed deals for eight straight seasons from 2016 through 2023. He's made over $230 million in his career, including this latest deal. And he's done it all while being exactly .500 as a starter, playing in a grand total of three playoff games (winning one), and generally being regarded as a slightly above-average quarterback who struggles to elevate the team around him.

Regardless of how you feel about Cousins the quarterback, you've got to hand it to him and his agent for how they've maximized his earnings.

Kirk Cousins has a 59-59-2 record as an NFL quarterback, performs slightly above average, and has made $231,669,486 in his career

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 13, 2022

The Vikings' offense could be elite this season

The case for giving Cousins this extension is all about O'Connell. The Vikings' new head coach believes he can take Cousins' game to another level by building an offense that maximizes his strengths. He just helped a veteran quarterback in Matthew Stafford break through and win a Super Bowl; now he'll attempt to do the same with Cousins. That the two will have a much better relationship than the one Cousins and Mike Zimmer had can only benefit everyone involved.

If O'Connell — who knows Cousins well from their time together in Washington in 2017 — and offensive coordinator Wes Phillips can take what they've learned from Sean McVay and bring it to Minnesota, the Vikings' offense will have a chance to be one of the league's best this season. The skill positions are loaded with Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith Jr., K.J. Osborn, C.J. Ham, and some young depth. The bookend tackles are set with Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill. Ezra Cleveland is the only locked-in starter on the interior of the offensive line, but the Vikings will have some options, both internal and external, to upgrade at center and right guard.

So the roster is there — pending improvements at C and RG — for O'Connell to build something efficient and explosive. Increasing Cousins' rate of play-action attempts feels like a logical step after that figure fell from 31 percent in 2019 to 26 percent last season. Getting back to an efficient running game and screen game — without relying too heavily on either — would be a big boost. O'Connell will try to build an offense that is multiple, unpredictable, and puts Cousins and his playmakers in the best situations to succeed.

If it all works out, this could be a top-five offense. Then, if Adofo-Mensah and defensive coordinator Ed Donatell can get the defense to be at least average by 2022 or 2023, this could be a team with a chance to be pretty good. That was surely part of the thought process behind the decision to stick with Cousins.

Now that that’s out of the way…let’s get to work on a Lombardi #LetsFrickinGo 😁

— Kirk Cousins (@KirkCousins8) March 14, 2022

Gut reaction: this feels like a mistake

In the last section, I made the case for why this Cousins extension could work out. Now, it's time for my personal opinion: this feels like a mistake.

It's hard to escape the feeling that the Vikings locked themselves into two more years of mediocrity by committing to Cousins as their quarterback. No, QBs aren't the sole factor in wins and losses, but this is a guy with a 59-59-2 record as a starter and a 33-29-1 record since joining a Vikings team that was one game away from a Super Bowl before he arrived. They've made the playoffs once in four years with Cousins. At some point, the excuses about coaching or defense or offensive line play only matter so much, and the blame falls on Cousins.

Part of the issue is Cousins' shortcomings as a player. He's a talented, highly accurate quarterback, but there are several things about his game that hold him back from being close to the "elite" tier. Cousins is an excellent first-read QB who struggles to make things happen outside of structure and sometimes holds onto the ball too long in the pocket. He goes through his progressions in a robotic manner and throws where the defense dictates he should — sometimes to a fault. Cousins' main flaw, from my view, is that his goal of limiting mistakes can lead to playing too conservatively, whether that means throwing short of the sticks on third down or not giving Jefferson enough chances in tight coverage. He doesn't elevate the team around him in a way that elite QBs do. Instead, he needs all of the pieces around him to lift him up.

Cousins turns 34 in August. He is who he is. It's hard for me to buy the idea of O'Connell unlocking his game when everyone from McVay to Kevin Stefanski to Gary Kubiak couldn't.

Still, Cousins is a solidly above-average NFL quarterback who puts up good numbers and is ranked by most analysts in the 10-15 range at his position. The bigger issue is the opportunity cost of continuing to pay him top dollar when you know he isn't a top-tier QB. If you don't have an elite QB, the next-best thing is to have a cheap one that gives you financial flexibility. The Vikings have neither. Starting in 2018, Cousins' contracts played a role in Minnesota's defensive personnel falling apart due to salary cap constraints. This move places a lot of pressure on Adofo-Mensah to hit on draft picks at an extremely high rate to build a championship-caliber roster around Cousins' salary.

Adofo-Mensah and O'Connell taking over as the Vikings' decision-makers felt like a chance for a complete overhaul, a chance to try something new and take a swing at finding the quarterback of the future. Instead, they're running it back with Cousins, who will take up 15 percent of their cap this year and 16 percent next year. 

You have to wonder how much influence the Wilfs had on this decision. This feels like a move directed by owners who are scared to fall into quarterback purgatory or have a 4-13 season, even if that means avoiding the potential upside of landing an elite player at the game's most important position. Time will tell, and I could certainly be proven wrong, but this move feels like a mistake.

It's only a two-year commitment

I'll end on this: I feel better about a one-year extension for Cousins than I would've felt about a two or three-year extension. That doesn't mean I like the move, but I can understand the rationale. This gives Adofo-Mensah and O'Connell a chance to see what they can do with Cousins and a new coaching staff. If it works and the offense is phenomenal, great. It's entirely possible that Cousins is capable of winning a Super Bowl if all of the pieces around him (coaching, offensive line, weapons, defense) are there.

If it doesn't work out, the Vikings could tap into the 2023 quarterback draft class for a potential replacement in 2024. That group is considered to be much better and deeper than the QB class in this year's draft.

Personally, I wouldn't have extended Cousins. But I can also acknowledge that replacing him this offseason would've been a crapshoot. I'm willing to give Adofo-Mensah and O'Connell the benefit of the doubt as we wait and see what else they do to implement their vision for this franchise. If they realize that Cousins isn't the guy they want long-term, they'll get another chance to move on in the near future. 

It just might cost them two more years of mediocrity first.

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