Four Potential Changes to the Vikings' Starting Lineup and Why They May or May Not Happen

The Vikings could address some of their weaknesses with these four changes, including two players coming back from injury.

We can talk all we want about the Vikings being better than their record suggests.  Football Outsiders says they've played the toughest schedule in the NFL so far and gives them 2.2 expected wins in four games based on their overall performance. They have a positive point differential thanks to a 13-point win and three one-possession losses, two of which were entirely avoidable. They're in the top half of the league in all three phases — offense, defense, and special teams — according to DVOA. 

And yet, they're 1-3 and facing a significant uphill battle to be in the playoff picture late in the season. They simply can't afford many more losses if they want to have an outside shot at the NFC North or at least be in contention for a wild card spot.

With a sample size of four games now in the books to evaluate, we've seen who the weak links on this roster appear to be. So let's take a look at four possible changes to the Vikings' starting lineup and assess why (and when) they may or may not happen based on what the coaches are saying and my own educated speculation.

LB: Anthony Barr in for Nick Vigil

We'll start with one that appears to be happening this week against the Lions. Mike Zimmer said on Monday that he expects Barr to make his season debut this Sunday, and Barr seemed to confirm that at his press conference on Wednesday. After missing the final 14 games last year with a pectoral tear and the first four of this season with a knee injury, Barr should play against Detroit barring a setback.

"Excited to get back out there and help the team," he said. "There will be a lot of emotions, but at the end of the day, just got to do my job and help the team win... I really owe this to my teammates more than anybody. They’ve been grinding. They’ve been working. I haven’t been able to play with them for awhile, so that’s my biggest motivation, getting back with those guys."

Barr has been practicing for several weeks now to get ready for his return, and it seems like his knee is where it needs to be for him to feel comfortable being himself on the field.

His presence should make a big difference for the Vikings in a couple areas. Vigil has been solid in Barr's absence, particularly in coverage, where he snagged a pick-six off of Kyler Murray in Week 2. But he ranks 47th out of 51 qualified linebackers in PFF run defense grade (last year's Barr replacement, current Eagles LB Eric Wilson, ranks 51st) and has been charged with six missed tackles. Barr has always been a strong tackler who impacts the Vikings' run defense in a positive way. He'll also aid the pass rush because of his size and power as a blitzer, and his return will have intangible benefits as well.

"His leadership is gonna help us," Andre Patterson said. "He's a calming influence in the huddle. The offense has to account for him, so that's gonna help us, too."

LT: Christian Darrisaw in for Rashod Hill

There's no question who the weak link on the Vikings' offense has been through the first four games of the year. Hill ranks 58th out of 60 qualified tackles in PFF grade and is tied for third with 18 pressures allowed, a whopping ten of those coming against Myles Garrett and the Browns last week.

You don't need any advanced numbers or grades to see that it's been a struggle for Hill this year. He was no match for the Bengals' Trey Hendrickson in Week 1, committing three penalties in that game. He followed that up with a poor performance against the Cardinals. After a solid game against the Seahawks, Hill was completely embarrassed by Garrett on Sunday. The bottom line is that he's a well-respected veteran guy and a quality backup tackle who just isn't a starting-caliber player in the NFL.

Darrisaw, the Vikings' first-round pick this year, has all the tools to be an excellent left tackle. The problem is that he's been injured all year. Darrisaw had surgery to fix a groin issue back in January, but needed a second procedure in August when he wasn't recovering as hoped. He returned to full participation in practice last week and played one special teams snap on the kicking unit on Sunday. Still, he's got plenty of ramping up to do in terms of shaking off the physical rust, getting his conditioning back, and making sure he's up to speed on the playbook. In Klint Kubiak's words, Darrisaw has "a lot of catching up to do."

Even though Hill has been bad, he at least knows his assignments on each play. Rushing Darrisaw out there before he's mentally and physically ready could be even more of a mess. But once the rookie is ready, he has to replace Hill. It's unavoidable. It would be very, very difficult for things to get worse, given Hill's level of play and Darrisaw's first-round pedigree and athleticism. 

The Vikings play two more games and then have their bye in Week 7. I think the first game after the bye, which is Halloween night against the Cowboys, is the best bet for when you can expect to see Darrisaw make his first career start.

CB: Cameron Dantzler in for Bashaud Breeland

I'm still not entirely sure what happened that got Dantzler in Zimmer's doghouse this offseason, but it's been a strange season for the second-year corner who was one of the bright spots of 2020. He was a healthy scratch in Week 1, apparently because he wasn't playing well enough in practices. After not playing in Week 3, he sent an ill-advised tweet that had to be addressed by Zimmer. And now he's on the Reserve/COVID-19 list because he tested positive.

Still, the most important thing is this: whenever Dantzler has gotten on the field this year, he's played well. He came up big late in the game against the Cardinals when Breeland got banged up, and was solid last week after taking over for a sick Breeland early in the game. Dantzler showed last season that he can play, and his performance in game action this year has done nothing to suggest otherwise.

Meanwhile, Breeland has been a complete whiff of a free agent signing so far. He was horrendous in the opener in Cincinnati and hasn't been great since. I know PFF grades aren't an end-all, be-all metric of evaluation, but he has ranked dead last among qualified corners all year. That's bad. Breeland leads all corners in missed tackles (8), touchdowns allowed (4), and passer rating against (157.2). It just hasn't been working so far.

This seems like a simple thing: Dantzler should replace Breeland. But the Vikings have been publicly supportive of the veteran Breeland and have only taken him out of games due to injury or illness. I'm not sure they'd go to Dantzler right now if both guys were healthy, and the fact that he's on the COVID list makes a switch even less likely. I think this is one the Vikings have to do, but one we may not see actually happen for a while. The coaching staff certainly seems to view it differently than the general public does.

DE: Everson Griffen in for D.J. Wonnum

This is another weird one where the coaches' praise of a player doesn't match up with the stats or the tape.

Wonnum has done next to nothing so far this season. He ranks 64th out of 65 qualified edge rushers in PFF grade and is tied for 65th out of 67 in PFF's pass rush productivity. He has a starter's workload with 108 pass rush snaps (which is tied for 24th-most among edge rushers) and just four pressures on those snaps (tied for 87th). He doesn't have any sacks.

And yet, whether he's just trying to build him up publicly or not, Patterson hasn't expressed any issues with Wonnum's performance.

"D.J.'s playing good," he said. "I don't wanna say the wrong thing, but the bottom line is, everybody evaluates defensive linemen off of sacks. And I've said it a long time ago, sacks are low-priority ... At the end of the game, I want to see the pressure totals more than I want to see the sack totals. ... He's played really good in the run game. He's playing three different positions at times. He's smart, he's physical. He's been close to getting a sack. He's had pressures in every game, so we've gotta just keep building on it."

The Vikings' internal evaluations obviously differ from PFF's stats, but PFF has Wonnum with two games of zero pressures. They also rank him 58th out of 61 edge rushers in run defense. Beyond the stats, he just hasn't flashed on tape much, if at all.

Griffen, who is ten years older than Wonnum, has been fantastic in his first three games of the year. He has ten pressures on just 67 pass rushing snaps, has a sack in two straight games, and has been good in run defense. But Patterson wants to keep him in his current rotational role because he thinks it'll keep Griffen fresh all year, and it's hard to blame him for that.

"I’ve told you guys from day one what I was going to do with Ev, right? I’ve got to do what I told you I was going to do," Patterson said. "His role has to remain the same. I’ve got to get him through 17 games. I said it a long time ago. When I said that, I was talking to myself. I mean, he’s playing very well, and he looks like the old Everson to me, but I’ve still got to keep in my mind that he’s 33 years old, right? I’ve got to make sure that we still have Ev with us in Week 17, looking like Ev. That’s the key, so his role is going to remain the same."

Unlike Vigil, Hill, and Breeland, Wonnum is a young player who may well get better. The thought process behind limiting Griffen's snaps to keep him playing at a high level makes sense, too. But there may come a point where if Griffen keeps playing this well and Wonnum continues to struggle, Patterson might have to take the restrictions off and let Griffen play even more. We'll see.

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