Four Stats That Help Explain the Vikings' 5-1 Start to the Season
On the surface, the Vikings look like a slightly fraudulent 5-1 football team.
Their five victories, by an average of 7.6 points, have come against teams with a combined 11-13 record in all other games. In their one matchup with a team currently in the playoff picture, they lost 24-7 to the still-undefeated Eagles. Before Sunday's game in Miami, the Vikings trailed in the fourth quarter in three straight games against the Lions, Saints, and Bears.
Statistically, they rank 19th in total offense, 14th in scoring offense, 26th in total defense, and T-11th in scoring defense. If you prefer advanced stats, they're 17th in DVOA (with 2.8 estimated wins compared to their actual five), 13th in both offensive and defensive EPA per play, and 21st in ANY/A value.
Of course, the only number that really matters is 5-1. But how have the Vikings reached that record despite mediocre underlying metrics?
The simple answer is that compared to recent seasons, they're doing the little things right this year. They're winning on the margins with better coaching and execution. The Vikings have a 4-0 record in one-possession games after going 6-8 in such games a year ago.
"I think it comes down to those margins," head coach Kevin O'Connell said on Monday. "How can we be good on some plays and situations that maybe don’t always get talked about on Monday morning, but they’re winning plays and winning philosophies for us."
Let's take a look at four stats that help explain why the Vikings are 5-1 as they head into their bye week.
Point differential in the final two minutes of halves
Anyone who followed the 2021 Vikings is aware of their historic futility at the end of halves. In the final two minutes of the second and fourth quarters, the Vikings had a minus-73 point differential, easily the worst in the NFL. It killed their season.
This year, the Vikings have completely flipped that script. They lead the league with a plus-33 point differential in the final two minutes of halves, according to Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports. From clock and timeout management to player execution on both sides of the ball, it's been an incredible turnaround in that area of the game.
The Vikings have placed a ton of emphasis on situational football. Every week, game management coordinator Ryan Cordell helps lead a situational masters meeting where he shows clips from various games as a way to give players examples of what to do — and what not to do — in certain situations. That leads to things like Cameron Dantzler sliding down to seal a victory after stripping Ihmir Smith-Marsette in the game against the Bears.
"We definitely wish we weren’t getting so many reps at the situational masters side of things, but we put a huge emphasis on it from day one," O'Connell said earlier this month. "Something we talk about every single week — different situations that not only come up for our football team, but for everyone else around the league, can be real learning opportunities for our team just so when those moments come up, there is very little thinking that goes into it and more reacting and playing."
Penalties
The Vikings have been one of the league's most disciplined teams this year. They've been called for just 25 penalties in six games — only the Rams, at 24, have fewer. The Vikings' 185 penalty yards are the fewest in the league, 20 ahead of the Rams at 205.
They've also drawn penalties at a very high rate, ranking third in opponent penalties (43) and second in opponent penalty yards (368). That's a good way to help yourself win games.
As you might've guessed, that wasn't the case last season. In 2021, the Vikings had the fourth-most penalty yardage against and the fourth-lowest opponent penalty yardage.
Turnover margin
Admittedly, much of this comes from the Vikings recording three takeaways and zero turnovers in Sunday's win over the Dolphins. But through six weeks, they're tied with the Ravens for the second-best turnover margin in the NFL at plus-4. Only the Eagles, at a whopping plus-12, are better.
That's another good way to win close games. The Vikings were out-gained by over 200 yards in Miami, but sacks, turnover margin, and timely big plays on offense helped them emerge victorious.
"To have these conversations after a win is so much more enjoyable than after a loss," Kirk Cousins said on Sunday. "Very much the inverse of '21. I would walk off the field after we had lost and say, 'We're playing so well and somehow, someway, we lost, but we're playing at a very high level.' This year I'm saying, 'Gosh, we can play better, but we won.' It's just kind of an inverse, and I'll take this any day."
Field position
Special teams have been a big reason for the Vikings' success. First-year coordinator Matt Daniels has gotten his players to buy in to the importance of that phase and has them playing well. Whether it's kicking, punting, returns, or coverage, special teams are making a positive impact.
The most notable statistic is how well the Vikings are doing in the field position game. Through six weeks, the Vikings have the best starting field position in the league, beginning each offensive possession at their 32 yard-line, on average. They also have the best average opponent starting field position in the league, with other teams starting at their own 24.4.
That might not seem like much, but it makes a major difference. Credit goes to Ryan Wright, Greg Joseph, Jalen Reagor, Kene Nwangwu, and so many others on the coverage and return units, as well as Daniels' coaching and the complementary football being played by the Vikings' offense and defense.
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