From Jones to Darnold, 4 bold predictions for the Minnesota Vikings' 2024 season

Will these come true? Probably not, but that's why they're called bold predictions.

Nov 27, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore (2) is tackled by Minnesota Vikings safety Harrison Smith (right) and safety Camryn Bynum (left) and safety Josh Metellus (44) during the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. / Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

With the 2024 Vikings season approaching, it's time to make some bold predictions. By design, these will be things that are unlikely to come true. If I get even one of them right, I'll be pleased. But make no mistake — with each one, I can squint and see the path to it occurring. I'm not just throwing these out there without any sort of reasoning. Alright, that's enough introduction. Let's dive in.

1. Aaron Jones sets career high in yards from scrimmage after turning 30

Back in 2019, in his third season with the Packers, Aaron Jones racked up 1,558 yards from scrimmage, finishing eighth in the league in that category. I'm here to tell you that in 2024, he has a chance to top that mark and set a new career high.

Jones has the talent and track record to do it. He had over 1,450 yards in both 2020 and 2022 as well, and he finished last year averaging 130.6 yards over Green Bay's final five games of the season (regular and playoffs). In his seven-year career, he's averaged an even 5.0 yards per carry and 7.6 yards per reception. He's also joining a Minnesota offense that, when fully healthy, is full of pass-catching weapons (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson) defenses must respect.

The reason this is a bold prediction is that Jones turns 30 in December and missed a chunk of last season due to injury. Plus, as excited as the Vikings are to have added Jones to their offense, they're also going to use Ty Chandler plenty in the backfield to keep the veteran fresh. He's not going to be an every-down workhorse.

But Jones was never an every-down guy with the Packers either, whether it was Jamaal Williams or A.J. Dillon as the other back. He gets his yardage through efficiency and explosiveness. If he stays healthy for all 17 games — which is key to this prediction — he'd need to average just under 92 yards to get to 1,559. He can realistically do that on 16-18 touches per game, which feels like a good number for the Vikings.

Even at age 29, Jones has looked exceptionally quick and shifty throughout training camp. I'm expecting Kevin O'Connell to lean on the running game to take pressure off of Sam Darnold — and for Darnold to dump the ball off to Jones quite a bit.

Aaron Jones during an offseason workout with the Vikings. / Image courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings

2. Brian Flores' defense climbs into top 6 in DVOA in year two

Last year, defensive coordinator Brian Flores showed up in Minnesota and engineered quite a turnaround. Despite the team moving on from key veterans like Eric Kendricks, Dalvin Tomlinson, Patrick Peterson, and Za'Darius Smith, Flores brought a Vikings defense that was 24th in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) in 2022 to the 11th-best mark in 2023.

The Vikings struggled a bit early on and then fell off down the stretch due to some injuries, but from Week 5 through Week 14, they were the second-best defense in the NFL by opponent EPA per play. Flores and his unique scheme blitzed more than any other team in the league and got career years out of players up and down the roster.

I think the Vikings' defense has a real chance to be even better in 2024. Let's say they'll go from 11th into the top six in DVOA this year. And yes, that's after losing Danielle Hunter, who was their defensive MVP and only Pro Bowler last season.

Flores' system should be even further developed in year two. Returning players have that much more comfort in the complexity of their roles. And I legitimately believe the Vikings upgraded by replacing Hunter, D.J. Wonnum, and Jordan Hicks with Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Blake Cashman. On top of that, you've got the additions of Shaq Griffin, Dallas Turner, and Stephon Gilmore to round things out.

This defense is loaded with experience, versatility, and playmaking at all three levels. Flores has all the pieces he needs to cook up an elite unit. It's also worth noting that DVOA factors in opponents, so this prediction is doable even against a difficult schedule of opposing offenses.

3. Will Reichard breaks franchise records for made field goals and longest field goal

Let the record show that I am not attempting to jinx anything here. I simply can't get over how impressive Vikings rookie kicker Will Reichard has been throughout training camp. The sixth-rounder from Alabama, who left college as the NCAA's all-time leading scorer, has been basically automatic. He also has leg strength beyond what I had any idea he possessed, routinely drilling field goals from 55 or more yards with plenty of room to spare.

I'm going to predict that Reichard breaks two Vikings franchise records in his rookie year. The record for field goals made in a single season is 35, set by Gary Anderson in 1998 and matched by...sixth-round rookie Blair Walsh in 2012 (and those were in 16-game seasons). To get to 36 makes, Reichard just has to make around 2.1 field goals per game across 17 contests. He should get plenty of kicking opportunities on an offense that projects as a decent one if Darnold plays well.

I'm also going to say Reichard breaks the record for the longest field goal in franchise history, which was set by Greg Joseph with his 61-yard game-winner against the Giants on Christmas Eve 2022. Based on what I've seen on the practice field, I think O'Connell will trust Reichard enough to give him at least an opportunity or two from 62 or beyond this season, most likely at the end of a half or game.

And the baby-faced assassin from Alabama is going to drill it through the uprights.

Related: Vikings training camp recap, Day 17: Will Reichard continues to shine

Vikings rookie kicker Will Reichard at an offseason practice. / Images Courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings

4. Vikings quarterbacks combine for 30 interceptions

Let's end with our first one that O'Connell wouldn't be pleased with. In the wake of J.J. McCarthy's season-ending meniscus surgery, the Vikings' quarterbacks this year are Sam Darnold and Nick Mullens, for better or for worse. Quite frankly, that could lead to a bunch of interceptions.

Darnold has 56 picks in 56 career starts. He has a big arm and some upside in O'Connell's system, but he's also thrown his fair share of INTs over the course of training camp. And if he struggles, the Vikings' choices are to stick with him or go to Mullens, who has 31 picks in 20 career starts (including 8 in 3 starts last December). I think Darnold has a chance to be a supercharged version of what Mullens was late last season: A guy who throws for a bunch of yards and touchdowns but also a bunch of interceptions.

The prediction here is that the duo reaches the 30-pick mark. Only the 2009 Lions (rookie Stafford), the 2019 Buccaneers (Jameis), and the 2005 Packers (Favre) have done that in the last 20 seasons. If this one happens, O'Connell's going to have some gray hairs before the year ends.