Getting Dalvin Cook, Running Game Going Will Be Key For Vikings Against Giants

The running game has been a struggle for the Vikings for much of the season.

In the Vikings' first meeting with the Giants a couple weeks ago, Dalvin Cook took his first carry for 18 yards. Coming off of a game where he racked up 190 yards from scrimmage against the Colts, it was a strong start that suggested a big day was in store against one of the league's worst run defenses.

Cook's final 13 carries that day gained just 46 yards, and none of them went for more than eight. Instead of riding the ground game, the Vikings put a lot on Kirk Cousins' plate, as he dropped back 48 times, threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns, and led his team to a dramatic walk-off win.

For the majority of this season, something has seemed slightly off about the Vikings' running game. As they prepare for a rematch with the Giants on Sunday in the first round of the playoffs, now would be an optimal time to get Cook going.

Here's a stat that's hard to believe: Out of 36 running backs with at least 130 carries this season, Cook ranked dead last in rushing yards over expected. According to Pro Football Focus, he gained nearly 200 yards fewer than an average running back would've been expected to gain on his carries based on down, distance, yard line, defensive alignment, and offensive line grades.

final total rushing yards over expected leaderboard for the 2022 regular season

travis etienne barely edges out nick chubb as the RYOE leader with aaron jones having another great season pic.twitter.com/3jCJqJLKzK

— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) January 11, 2023

That's just one metric that involves some level of subjectivity, but it's hard to find any advanced statistics that paint Cook's season in a positive light. He ranked 36th out of 42 backs with at least 100 carries in Football Outsiders' DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) and 33rd in PFF rushing grade. As a team, the Vikings ranked 28th in rushing DVOA and 29th in EPA per rush.

Cook, who turns 28 this year, stayed healthy for a full season for the first time in his career and finished sixth in the league with 1,173 rushing yards. He had some notable highlights late in games, including an 81-yard touchdown against the Bills, a 53-yard touchdown against the Dolphins, and a 64-yard receiving score on a screen pass against the Colts. But 69 rushing yards per game was his lowest mark since an injury-marred 2018 season, down from 89.2 last season and a remarkable 111.2 in 2020. His yards per carry number was a career-low 4.4.

The statistics suggest Cook may have lost a step this season. Anecdotally, there have been times where he's seemed to go down unusually easily at first contact or hasn't quite been able to burst through a hole. 84 of Cook's 264 carries this season (32 percent) went for one yard or less, which has been an issue for the Vikings' offense. Those short runs, often coming on early downs, put added pressure on the passing game.

"I think an effective run game starts with your efficiency," Kevin O'Connell said this week. "The explosives are great if you can get the 81-yarder like we did against Buffalo or you can get Dalvin some big chunks, but what I look for as the play caller is can we stay on schedule? Can we be efficient? Can we churn out three, four, five yards per run and stay on schedule without the negatives, without the minus two here and the minus four and the penalty or holding call here or there?

"Those set you back and completely can derail drives, and you’re trying to get back on track from there, so I look at efficiency. Can we cover up? Can we get our hat on their hat and get the run started? I feel really strongly about Dalvin and Alexander (Mattison) and really all of our running backs. If we can get those runs started, they’re going to get more than what the plays block for, but it’s a matter of eliminating those negatives, which I think is the most important thing."

The blame can't all go to Cook. Mattison was even less efficient this season, averaging 3.8 yards per carry and getting a yard or less on 28 of his 74 totes (38 percent). That suggests there have been issues with everyone involved in the running game during the first year of O'Connell's offense, which could include everything from blocking execution to play-calling and scheme.

Because of their struggles to be efficient on the ground, O'Connell and the Vikings mostly ended up abandoning the running game. They passed the ball 64 percent of the time this season, the third-highest rate in the league, and were tied for the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game as a team (97.7).

If there was ever a week to try to get that phase of the offense going again, this would be it. The Giants' defense was abysmal against the run this season, ranking 32nd in DVOA, 30th in EPA per rush, 31st in yards per carry, and 27th in rushing yards per game. And after Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and T.J. Hockenson torched them through the air in the teams' last meeting, the Giants will likely be focusing on stopping the pass on Sunday. That could, in theory, open up opportunities for Cook on the ground.

The Vikings don't want to be a one-dimensional offense, especially against a blitz-happy team like the Giants. Having an effective running game is a great way to stay on schedule and wear down an opposing defense, both physically and psychologically. Plus, it can make things easier on the passing game, whether play-action is used or not.

After this season, the Vikings' front office will have to discuss what they want to do with Cook, who has a cap hit of $14 million in 2023 and three years left on his contract. But for now, the focus is completely on Sunday's game. The Vikings' star running back can erase the memories of a mostly frustrating individual season with a big performance in a win over the Giants.

"I'm hyped, I'm ready to go," Cook said. "It's playoff football. It's going to be a hell of a game."

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