How much is too much for the Vikings to bring back Sam Darnold?

One insider projects Darnold's next contract at $120 million over three years.

Jan 13, 2025; Glendale, AZ, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) against the Los Angeles Rams during an NFC wild card game at State Farm Stadium. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Free agency decisions always come down to the price point. Can a team and a player meet in the middle and agree on terms of a deal that both sides believe to be fair?

It'll be no different with Sam Darnold, the Vikings' Pro Bowl quarterback who is arguably the most important player set to hit free agency this year. Minnesota may genuinely have interest in keeping him around, but for how much? There's only a certain contract that will make sense for GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and the Vikings, who have last year's No. 10 pick J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings.

In a new article, ESPN insider Dan Graziano projects Darnold to get a three-year, $120 million contract with $75 million guaranteed. That's in line with the three-year, $100 million deal Baker Mayfield got from the Buccaneers last year, but adjusted upward "based on inflation and market demand." Darnold had a better statistical season than Mayfield's 2023, and there's more quarterback demand this year due to a lack of obvious options in free agency and the draft.

Would the Vikings do that kind of a deal? That largely commits you to having Darnold for the next two years, which means McCarthy would have burned three years of his rookie contract before getting a chance. Unless, of course, the Michigan product earns the job anyways, in which case you've committed $75 million guaranteed to someone who ends up as your backup quarterback.

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The Vikings could structure a two or three-year deal in a backloaded way that allows them to hold onto much of their cap space this year, but that brings the risk of ending up with a big, Kirk Cousins-like dead money charge at some point. They could also franchise tag Darnold for one year at $41 million, but that cuts into their ability to address other needs this offseason.

One major insider believes the "most logical" outcome is still Darnold returning to Minnesota, given how well he played this past season and that McCarthy is coming off of a significant knee injury. That shouldn't be overlooked, but it's also rather confusing. The reason it has always seemed likely Darnold ends up elsewhere is that what makes sense for the Vikings and what he can get on the open market aren't going to be the same thing.

"My anticipation on Darnold is that he will probably have a free agent market that prices him out of what Minnesota wants to do, given that J.J. McCarthy is coming there," Graziano said on ESPN Radio. "So where does that leave Sam Darnold? Is it the Raiders, is it the Saints, is it the Giants? There's all these teams that are going to be looking for quarterback help, and I think at his age, 27, coming off the year he had, he will have a market.

"I think Minnesota would love to have him around, but do they want to franchise him for like 40, 41 million dollars and then have to bench him halfway through the season when the kid is ready? Do you franchise him with the intent of trading him, just so you get something for him? I think there's a lot of different ways that could play out, but I'm still one that I'm gonna be surprised if he's back on the Vikings."

Logically, it seems like the only way Darnold is back with the Vikings is if he takes a deal for less than market value to keep working with Kevin O'Connell and Justin Jefferson. Could that happen? Maybe. But at 27 years old, this is also a prime opportunity for Darnold to cash in on his 2024 performance and maximize his earnings, which is what players tend to do in these situations.

“Yeah, you know, I've put a little bit of thought into it," Darnold said in a SiriusXM NFL Radio interview at the Pro Bowl on Thursday. "I'm not gonna share anything about kind of what I've been thinking or obviously the conversations I've had behind closed doors. But there's obviously a lot that's gotta happen still even after the Super Bowl. So just gonna continue to talk to my agent and figure things out from there."

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