How the Minnesota Vikings can clinch a playoff spot this week

The Vikings have all but clinched a spot in the postseason. They can make it official in Week 14.

Dec 1, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings safety Josh Metellus (44) and cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. (7) and linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill (54) react after Minnesota Vikings cornerback Shaquill Griffin (1) made an interception late during the fourth quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at U.S. Bank Stadium. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

At 10-2 after Sunday's win over the Cardinals, the Vikings have all but secured their spot in the NFL postseason. FTN Fantasy's DVOA gives them a 99.7 percent chance to make the playoffs.

And they can mathematically clinch a spot this upcoming week. Here's how:

1. Vikings win vs. Falcons
2. Seahawks win at Cardinals
3. Bills win at Rams

Those are the three steps needed for the Vikings to technically clinch in Week 14. The Rams need to lose because they hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over Minnesota. The Vikings hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cardinals, but there's still a situation where Arizona wins the NFC West and the Vikings lose the tiebreaker to the Seahawks, who they play in Week 16. That's why the Cardinals also have to lose this week.

More simply, the Vikings just need to win two of their final five games and then none of the other results matter, at least in terms of making the playoffs. They've got the Falcons this week, the Bears the week after that, and they close with the Seahawks (road), Packers, and Lions (road).

But seeding will be important too. Here's what the NFC playoff picture currently looks like:

NFC playoff picture through Week 13 / NFL GSIS

The Vikings having ten wins and still being the fifth seed, by virtue of the Lions being 11-1, is an unfortunate reality of the NFL's playoff format that seeds the division winners one through four. Beating Arizona was critical to stay within reach of Detroit, but DVOA still gives the Vikings just an 8.1 percent chance to win the NFC North. The Vikings have a 57.9 percent chance to be the No. 5 seed and a 27.7 percent chance to be the No. 6 seed.

Notably, the Lions host the Packers on Thursday Night Football this week, which means one of them has to lose. A Green Bay win would be huge, as it would boost the Vikings' chances in the division. The consolation of a Detroit win would be that it helps the Vikings hold onto the 5 seed. The Lions then host the 10-2 Bills in Week 15 before finishing with games against the Bears (road), 49ers (road), and Vikings.

This is a big month of December.