Jared Goff and Sam Darnold's stats are closer than MVP odds would suggest

Goff's having a better season, but the gap isn't that large.

Jared Goff and Sam Darnold have similar numbers on teams separated by one game in the standings. / Marc Lebryk and Daniel Barten / Imagn Images

Jared Goff and Sam Darnold's statistics this season are more similar than the MVP odds at various sportsbooks would suggest.

The odds view Goff as a top-4 MVP candidate. He's around +700 to win the NFL's highest individual honor. That trails favorites Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, putting him with Saquon Barkley — who entered the mix with a massive game on Sunday night — in the next tier.

Darnold is somewhere in the 12-15 range among MVP candidates, with odds as low as +10000. Even after two excellent games against the Titans and Bears, he's a long shot.

There's little doubt that Goff is having a better season. He's the quarterback of the best team in the NFL, which automatically makes him a legitimate candidate for the award. But the gap, when it comes to the numbers, isn't that wide. And at 9-2, the Vikings remain just one game back of the 10-1 Lions. There's a chance this could result in a winner-take-all rematch between the two teams in Week 18 for the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the conference.

Statistic	Jared Goff	Sam Darnold
Completion percentage	72.9	67.6
Passing yards	2761	2712
Total touchdowns	21	22
Interceptions	9	10
Passer rating	109.9	101.7
QBR	57.6	59.3
Yards per attempt	9.0	8.3
PFF grade	74.4	81.9
Big-time throws (PFF)	9	22
Turnover-worthy plays (PFF)	13	17
CPOE	+7.2	+6.9

Goff leads in stats like completion percentage, passer rating, and yards per attempt. He also has fewer turnovers, and five of his nine interceptions happened to come in one game. He's been very efficient for a Lions team that has steamrolled opponents on its way to a +177 point differential.

But Darnold has more than double the number of big-time throws and a notably better PFF grade. The advanced metrics tell you the Vikings are asking him to do more than the Lions are asking Goff to do within their offense.

Darnold averages 8.8 intended air yards per pass attempt, which is fifth-highest among 36 qualified quarterbacks. That stat measures how far beyond the line of scrimmage his average target travels. Goff is 29th at 6.7. Darnold, who has been excellent on deep balls, leads the league in total air yards on completions. Where Goff leads the league is in yards after the catch per completion (7.2). Darnold is 29th at 4.7.

That's not a knock on Goff, who is executing exactly what the Lions need in an offense designed to get the ball in the hands of their weapons quickly. But a lot of his yardage is coming after the catch, whereas Darnold's is coming on more difficult targets further downfield.

Allen and Jackson are heavy favorites in the MVP race at this point, and for good reason. But if Goff deserves to be in the mix with a strong six-game finish to this season, Darnold shouldn't be written off either. He's bounced back from a couple turnover-filled games and put up two of his best performances of the season over the last two weeks.

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