Assessing Justin Jefferson's Fantasy Football Value in 2020
In some ways, Justin Jefferson is walking into an ideal scenario for immediate fantasy football value as a rookie. He is the clear favorite to win the Vikings' No. 2 receiver job behind Adam Thielen, as neither Tajae Sharpe nor Bisi Johnson figure to pose a legitimate threat for that role.
Being the No. 2 WR in the Vikings' offense comes with a lot of playing time, especially when compared to the player one spot lower on the depth chart. Last year, the Vikings had multiple receivers on the field on 80 percent of their snaps, according to Sharp Football Stats. Only 25 percent of their snaps had three or more receivers in the formation, which is the lowest figure among all NFL teams by a significant margin. The Vikings generally come out with two receivers on the field, as well as running back Dalvin Cook and either multiple tight ends or fullback CJ Ham and a tight end.
That means that Jefferson should be have opportunities to contribute early and often. And he has the talent to capitalize on those chances; Jefferson is an outstanding route-runner with good speed and an excellent catch radius. His ability to play in the slot and on the outside should make him a top target for Kirk Cousins as soon as the pair can establish a rapport.
However, there are still reasons why expectations should be tempered somewhat for Jefferson from a fantasy perspective in 2020. For one, the Vikings are going to keep running the ball a lot with Cook and Alexander Mattison. Also, expect continued involvement in the passing game from tight ends Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr., as well as Cook out of the backfield. Smith is a potential breakout candidate who could see a bigger role in the passing game in year two.
With all of that said, I think Jefferson can be a solid WR3 or WR4 for fantasy purposes. You should be able to get him in the later rounds of your draft, but don't expect consistent week-to-week production. He'll have some slow, low-volume weeks, especially when the Vikings get an early lead, just like Stefon Diggs did last year. But he's also poised to have some big weeks, especially with defenses focusing much of their attention on Adam Thielen. Jefferson has a nose for the end zone, having caught 18 touchdown passes last year (tied for the second-most in SEC history).
Will Jefferson be as good in 2020 as Diggs was last season? No. But I think he's got a great chance to put up better numbers than Diggs did as a rookie in 2015, when the fifth-round pick out of Maryland posted 720 receiving yards and four touchdowns. I can absolutely see Jefferson pushing for 800, maybe 900 receiving yards and catching six or seven TD passes in 2020. He's someone with upside who you should look to target in the later rounds of your draft, and start as a WR3 or FLEX based on week-to-week matchups.
Check out the video above to see me discuss Jefferson's fantasy football value with SI host Bill Enright and SI gambling analyst Frankie Taddeo.
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