Can Justin Jefferson Beat Out Justin Herbert For Offensive Rookie of the Year?

The OROY race is down to a pair of Justins heading into the final four games of the season.

This weekend was a big one for Justin Jefferson's pursuit of the 2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Not only did the young Vikings star stay hot and earn a piece of history, the lone player ahead of him in the race – Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert – lost a lot of ground as a result of his worst game of the season.

Not long ago, Herbert was the overwhelming favorite for the award. With No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow out for the season due to injury and Tua Tagovailoa struggling a bit once taking over in Miami, the Oregon product is the only rookie QB who will play close to a full season. More importantly, Herbert has been the best of that highly-touted trio, electrifying the league with his rocket arm and racking up 22 total touchdowns with just four interceptions between Weeks 4 and 11. With QBs having won five of the last ten OROY awards, Herbert seemed like a borderline lock when Burrow's season came to an early end. 

Things have changed a bit over the past two weeks.

Herbert struggled in a Week 12 loss to the Bills, posting his lowest passer rating of the year while finishing with a completion percentage below 60 and a yards per attempt of just over six. That performance being his worst of the season didn't last long. On Sunday, Herbert was absolutely flummoxed by Bill Belichick and the Patriots, recording a horrendous 26 of 53, 209-yard, two-interception line in a 45-0 home loss. His passer rating of 43.7 was the eighth-worst of any NFL QB this season (minimum 20 attempts) and it was his first game all year without a single touchdown.

While Herbert was crashing back to earth, Jefferson has continued to produce at an elite level all year. After having a couple down games against the Packers and Lions while Dalvin Cook was running wild, Jefferson has averaged over 100 yards per game with four touchdowns over the past four contests. On Sunday, the former LSU star became the fifth rookie ever to exceed 1,000 receiving yards in their first 12 games. He also went over 100 yards for the fifth time this season, breaking a Vikings rookie record. Heading into the final four weeks of the season, Jefferson ranks fifth in the league in receiving yards, second in yards per route run, and fourth in PFF grade among wide receivers. Those aren't rookie rankings, they're his rankings among all players.

Herbert is likely still the favorite, but Jefferson is right there in the rearview mirror. It's almost certainly a two-man race, with other contenders like Jaguars RB James Robinson, Steelers WR Chase Claypool, and Buccaneers OL Tristan Wirfs significantly behind the two Justins.

There are a couple very real arguments in favor of Jefferson becoming the first WR since Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014 to win OROY. The big one is that he's producing like one of the best players in the league at his position, which Herbert isn't. As mentioned earlier, Jefferson has been a top-five receiver in the NFL this year from a statistical perspective. He's on pace to not only exceed OBJ's yardage total from '14, but also beat out Randy Moss and Anquan Boldin for the all-time rookie record. 

Herbert, meanwhile, ranks 23rd among QBs in PFF grade, 20th in yards per attempt, and 19th in passer rating. He's fourth in passing yards per game and eighth in passing touchdowns per game, but his efficiency stats are fairly mediocre on the whole.

Another argument for Jefferson is that he's been a key reason why the Vikings have turned their season around and won five of their last six. Herbert hasn't gotten a ton of help from his coaching staff, special teams, or defense, but the fact remains that he's 2-9 as a starting QB.

If Jefferson continues to produce at a high level over the final four games and Herbert struggles, there's a very real chance that he could follow in the footsteps of former Vikings receivers Paul Flatley, Sammy White, Moss, and Percy Harvin by taking home the award. 

Helping get his team into the playoffs wouldn't hurt, either.

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