Justin Jefferson's 2024 fantasy football outlook: Should you draft the Vikings WR?

Jefferson no longer has Kirk Cousins, but he proved last year that he's quarterback-proof.

Aug 10, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) looks on before the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at U.S. Bank Stadium. / Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Last year, Justin Jefferson was forced to sit out due to injury for the first time in his career, as a hamstring issue cost the Vikings' superstar seven full games and parts of two others. When he was healthy, he was as dominant as ever.

Jefferson was thriving with Kirk Cousins at quarterback before the injury and he came back and thrived with Nick Mullens at QB towards the end of the season. Across his eight full games, he had 63 receptions, 1,019 yards, and five touchdowns. That's an average of 20.4 fantasy points (half-PPR) per game. For some context, Tyreek Hill led all receivers last year with 19.8 points per game.

Should you draft Jefferson this year? The overall WR1 in 2022 when he won the NFL's offensive player of the year award, he was the consensus top pick in fantasy drafts before last season. This year, due to the departure of Kirk Cousins, he's going as the third, fourth, or fifth receiver off the board in most drafts. Hill and CeeDee Lamb are deservedly the top two picks at the position because of their track record and quarterback situation, but Jefferson is right there in the next tier of receivers that includes Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, and perhaps Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua.

Jefferson is very much worth strong consideration in the first round, especially if you have the sixth pick or later and he's still on the board. Yes, Cousins is gone, but Jefferson proved last year that he's pretty much quarterback-proof. He dominated the Lions twice with Mullens under center, and now he'll be catching passes from Sam Darnold, who has more arm talent and overall ability than Mullens. Darnold has shown a strong rapport with Jefferson during training camp and is going to look for his No. 1 option all the time.

With T.J. Hockenson set to miss at least the first month of the season and Jordan Addison's status unclear for Week 1, Jefferson could see some ridiculous target volume early in the season. Defenses will undoubtedly be focusing quite a bit of attention towards him, but Kevin O'Connell and the Vikings have lots of ways to scheme up looks for Jefferson even when he's drawing multiple defenders.

If you can get Jefferson in the middle or back half of the first round in your fantasy draft, you should feel good about it. He's the most talented all-around wide receiver in the NFL and he should be in line for a huge year, even with Darnold at QB.