How Many Passing Yards Will Kirk Cousins Have in the 2020 Season?

We analyze whether Kirk Cousins will go over or under his projected passing yards total this season.

In each of his first four seasons as an NFL starter, Kirk Cousins recorded at least 4,000 passing yards. That streak began with three seasons in Washington under Jay Gruden, including 4,917 yards in 2016 with Sean McVay as his offensive coordinator. In Cousins' first season with the Vikings in 2018, he extended the run to four years.

In 2019, the streak ended. Cousins played in 15 games – virtually all of the Vikings' starters rested in a meaningless Week 17 game – and threw for just 3,603 yards. And yet, he had the best season of his career by far. Cousins posted career bests in passer rating (107.4), PFF grade (84.1), adjusted net yards per attempt (7.7), and touchdown-to-interception ratio (4.3/1).

The difference was the offensive scheme he was operating. In 2018, Cousins tied his career-high with 606 attempts while playing under offensive coordinator John DeFilippo in a pass-first attack. Late in a season where a talented Vikings team failed to miss the playoffs, DeFilippo was fired. Head coach Mike Zimmer was fed up with his unwillingness to prioritize the running game.

One year later, with Gary Kubiak and Kevin Stefanski running the offense, the 2019 Vikings utilized an entirely different scheme. They became much more run-heavy in Kubiak's outsize zone offense, leaning on running backs Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison. In fact, the Vikings went from fourth in the NFL in passing percentage (64.4%) in 2018 to 30th (51%) last season.

As a result, Cousins' attempts fell from 606 to just 444. He was utilized much more frequently in play-action, and his efficiency and overall performance improved dramatically. It was the perfect scheme for his strengths as a quarterback.

That context made for an interesting discussion on Wednesday about Cousins' passing yards prop for 2020. Vegas oddsmakers currently have the total at 3,800.5, which is just shy of the 3,843 yards Cousins would've had in 2019 if you extrapolate his per-game average of 240.2 yards to a 16th game.

In the video above, myself and SI Gambling analyst Frankie Taddeo take different sides of this prop.

My pick: Take the UNDER on 3,800.5 yards

It's a tough call, but I think Cousins will fall short of 3,800 yards in 2020, even if he plays all 16 games. With Kubiak as offensive coordinator, we know that the Vikings will once again be a run-heavy offense. The Dalvin Cook holdout is concerning, but the most likely outcome of that situation is that the two sides reach a compromise and Cook has another big year this season in the first year of an extension.

Another major reason why I'm taking the under is the loss of Stefon Diggs, who was traded to the Bills in March. He was the primary deep threat for Cousins last season, and his elite talent will be missed in this offense. The Vikings drafted LSU's Justin Jefferson in the first round to replace Diggs, but in this truncated offseason, it may take some time for Jefferson to get up to full speed. Even if he has a strong rookie season and Adam Thielen stays healthy, the Vikings probably won't hit on as many deep passing plays without Diggs on the roster. That will affect Cousins' overall yardage.

I'm expecting Cousins to have another strong season in 2020 from an efficiency standpoint, but I think his passing yards will stay roughly the same or even decrease slightly with the loss of Diggs.

Taddeo takes the opposite approach, arguing that Cousins will hit the over on the 3,800.5 total. He would only need to average 238 yards per game to do so, but it's worth remembering that Cousins had single-game totals of 98, 122, and 174 passing yards during the regular season last year. The 98 came in the season opener against the Falcons when the Vikings ran the ball down Atlanta's throat and attempted just ten passes. In this offensive scheme, it's always a possibility that the Vikings will get ahead and not need to throw the ball much at all in the second half.

That's another reason why I would advise you to take the under on this total.

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