Why the Vikings Pursuing Lamar Jackson Feels Highly Unlikely...But Not Impossible

The Ravens placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on Jackson on Tuesday.

The Baltimore Ravens placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on superstar quarterback and 2019 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson on Tuesday, a surprising move perhaps intended to send a message to Jackson. He is now locked in at a salary of $32.4 million for next season, unless he agrees to an extension with the Ravens — or another team. The non-exclusive tag means Jackson can talk to any of the 31 other franchises and work out a long-term offer sheet, which the Ravens would have the right to match. If they declined to do so, they'd receive a first-round pick in each of the next two years from the team signing Jackson.

It's an interesting move from Baltimore. The exclusive franchise tag would've come at a higher price tag in 2023 (and on a potential second tag in 2024), but it would've barred Jackson — who is notably not represented by an agent — from negotiating with other clubs. The two sides have been in talks about a potential extension for more than a year but seem to still be a ways apart. Jackson is reportedly seeking a fully guaranteed contract similar to the five-year, $230 million deal Deshaun Watson received last offseason.

Essentially, this means there may be a chance for any team out there to go get a former MVP quarterback in the heart of his prime at 26 years old. That's extraordinarily rare in the NFL. The cost would be two first-round picks — or more, if that team and the Ravens were to negotiate and sign-and-trade — and giving Jackson a long-term deal presumably in the range of $45-55 million per year.

Already on Tuesday, there's been a wave of reports that some of the more quarterback-needy teams in the league will not be pursuing Jackson. The timing of those reports feels quite odd after the bidding war for Watson that took place a year ago. It's going to be fascinating to see how this all unfolds.

The Vikings are not exactly a QB-needy team, but they do have some long-term uncertainty at the position with Kirk Cousins (who turns 35 in August) set to enter the final year of his contract. Jackson would cost more than Cousins on a long-term extension, but he's also nine years younger and has shown a much higher ceiling in his five-year career. Could the Vikings and second-year GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah be a dark horse here? CBS Sports' Cody Benjamin thinks so.

They actually make a lot of sense as a deep sleeper. Kirk Cousins proved more resilient than usual under Kevin O'Connell in 2022, but he's entering a contract year and has proven, with his resume and reputation as an on-schedule play-action pocket passer, that he fits squarely in the NFL's middle tier of QBs. Amid an overhaul of older, expensive veterans, young GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah feels exactly like the kind of executive to explore an unorthodox shift to a play-maker like Jackson, especially if the price tag is just two first-rounders and Minnesota isn't well-positioned to draft a top prospect. Adofo-Mensah has publicly pondered Cousins' future in the past, and the Vikings have an elite weapon in Justin Jefferson to pair with such a dynamic QB.

The case for the Vikings pursuing Jackson is all about aiming for a Super Bowl ceiling and the uniqueness of this opportunity. Jackson is 45-16 in the regular season as an NFL starting quarterback, although he's just 1-3 in the playoffs. There are very few players in league history, if any, who can match his dual-threat abilities. In his 2019 MVP season, Jackson threw 36 touchdowns with just 6 interceptions, adding 1,206 rushing yards and 7 more scores on a league-best 6.9 yards per carry. He ran for over 1,000 yards again the following year.

Justin Jefferson would be, by an indescribably wide margin, the best receiver Jackson has ever played with. Jackson's passing abilities have been called into question to some extent over the past couple seasons, but it's important to consider the context of the receivers he's had at his disposal. The Vikings have Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, two elite tackles, and an offensive-minded head coach, which is an ideal environment for Jackson or any other quarterback. In this scenario, they'd have to figure out a way to trade Cousins, which would theoretically land them some draft capital that would soften the blow of giving Baltimore their 2023 and 2024 firsts.

However, while that all sounds nice on paper, there are far more reasons why the Vikings going after Jackson is highly unlikely than there are reasons why it might work.

ESPN's Bill Barnwell ranked the Vikings 14th out of 16 possible candidates in terms of how much sense a Jackson deal makes for each team. One reason he cited is that the advanced metrics don't view Minnesota as being close to Super Bowl contention, and signing Jackson "won't single-handedly solve their problems on both sides of the ball." More importantly, Barnwell points out that the Vikings have a difficult salary cap situation and still need to sign Jefferson to a record-setting extension soon. "They are not in position to add a $50 million-per-year player to their roster," Barnwell writes.

Then there's the whole issue of Cousins having a no-trade clause. The Vikings obviously can't have both Cousins and Jackson on their roster in 2023, so where does Cousins go in this scenario?

Cousins has a no-trade clause, making this deal even more complicated. I don't think he will waive that protection unless he gets an extension as part of a trade, and I'm not sure the Ravens would be excited about the idea of hitching their wagon to him as he enters his mid-30s. This probably would end up with the Ravens getting two first-round picks and Cousins for Jackson and a fifth-round selection, but there are lots of reasons these teams don't add up.

The Vikings could also look to trade Cousins to somewhere like San Francisco, but there's no guarantee the 49ers have any interest in signing him to a long-term deal. 

For any team, there's an entire conversation to be had about whether or not Jackson is worth two firsts and $45-$50 million a year. He's a special player, but his playoff record is notable, he's missed five games to injury in each of the last two seasons, and he hasn't had a truly elite season as a passer since the 2019 MVP campaign. Does O'Connell want to completely revamp his offense to build around a dual-threat QB like Jackson? Maybe he'd be thrilled at the idea. Maybe he wants to keep centering his attack around a slightly cheaper, more durable pocket passer in Cousins. Perhaps Adofo-Mensah doesn't like the idea of giving a big-money extension to either Cousins or Jackson, instead preferring to embark on a rebuild and pick a quarterback in the draft.

Ultimately, there are several glaring issues with the idea of the Vikings going after Jackson. Giving up two firsts and paying Jackson what he's seeking would be an all-in move for a team that probably isn't a quarterback away from the Super Bowl. It would be a difficult salary cap proposition, given the money Jefferson is going to command and some of the unsightly contracts currently on the team's books. And it would require finding another home for Cousins and his no-trade clause this offseason, as well as revamping the Vikings' offense for a player with some durability questions.

Then again, crazier things have happened. The Vikings landing Jackson feels highly unlikely, but there's no doubt that it would be quite the exciting home run swing for a franchise that's been stuck in relative mediocrity for a long time.

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