Making the Case For a Vikings Upset Win Over the Eagles

The Vikings might have a sneaky chance on Thursday night if they make a few key adjustments.

I should start out by saying that I don't expect the Vikings to beat the Eagles on Thursday night. I didn't pick it and I fully understand why they're 6.5-point underdogs heading into this primetime rematch. The Eagles have star power on both sides of the ball, Jalen Hurts has won 18 of his last 19 regular season starts, and Philadelphia is an awfully tough place to play. Perhaps most concerning is the mismatch between Minnesota's interior offensive line and the Eagles' defensive line.

But wouldn't it be just like the Vikings to lose a home game they should've won against the Buccaneers and then go win a road game they're expected to lose against the defending NFC champs?

I do think one can make a case for a potential upset here. It starts with the fact that the Vikings losing Sunday's game against Tampa Bay was a major statistical anomaly. Over the previous ten years, teams who gained at least 5.8 yards per play and allowed no more than 3.6 yards per play were 64-2, with 57 of those wins coming by at least 15 points and 32 of them coming by 24 or more.

The Vikings averaged a tick below 5.9 yards per play, surrendered 3.6 yards per play, and found a way to become the third team since 2013 to meet that criteria in a loss. Of course, they lost the turnover battle 3-0, and teams with a turnover margin of minus-three or worse are now 30-425-2 since '13. Still, the point remains: Aside from some costly turnovers and penalties, the Vikings clearly played well enough to win their opener. That should give them confidence on a short week.

"I’ve got nothing but confidence in our football team, and maybe even more so after watching the tape yesterday, knowing how close things were to being maybe a different result," Kevin O'Connell said on Monday. "But you’ve got to give Tampa credit. We could talk about coulda, woulda, shoulda all we want, but ultimately that result was what it was and now it’s how we handle that as a football team and an organization moving forward that I think is the most important thing."

Compared to last season, this feels like a slightly more beatable Eagles team based on roster turnover and some current injuries. C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Javon Hargrave, T.J. Edwards, and Kyzir White are gone from the 2022 Eagles defense. Rookie Jalen Carter looks like a fantastic Hargrave replacement, but this Philadelphia team looks weaker at linebacker and in the secondary. That's especially true with three starters — LB Nakobe Dean, CB James Bradberry, and S Reed Blankenship — out this week.

The Eagles will likely be starting former undrafted rookie Josh Jobe at cornerback, third-round rookie Sydney Brown at safety, and former Vikings UDFA Christian Elliss at inside linebacker. They still have an elite defensive tackle room and quality edge rushers, plus No. 1 cornerback Darius Slay, but there should be some exploitable matchups for the Vikings' offense if they can give Kirk Cousins enough time to operate.

Even with Sean Desai replacing Jonathan Gannon as the Eagles' defensive coordinator, they'll presumably repeat last year's strategy of sending plenty of Cover 0 blitzes at Cousins. The key for Kevin O'Connell and the Vikings will be finding ways to scheme around those blitzes and some obvious mismatches in the trenches. That probably means getting the ball out quickly and heavily utilizing the middle of the field. Justin Jefferson should get his numbers even if shadowed by Slay, but this could be a big opportunity for players like T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison to be productive against backup Eagles defenders. 

"I think there is potential," Cousins said this week. "There are guys who can make plays. You know you can be explosive. At the same time, the ability to execute play in and play out for 75ish plays, week in and week out, that will always be the challenge. That is the precision and the attention to detail and the preparation that you have to have to be able to do that, and it starts with me."

Last week, Mac Jones threw for 316 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a pick in the Patriots' five-point defeat against this Philadelphia team. This is a talented Eagles defense, especially up front, but it may not be quite as dominant as last year's unit.

On the other side of things, when the Eagles have the ball, the Vikings hope Brian Flores' approach will fare much better than Ed Donatell's did when these teams met in Week 2 a year ago. Against the Buccaneers, Flores rotated between blitzing at a high rate and dropping eight into coverage at times. It'll be fascinating to see how he attacks Hurts and this star-studded Eagles offense.

If the Vikings' defense is going to have some success, it'll probably be through big games from star players like Danielle Hunter, Byron Murphy Jr., and Harrison Smith. Two other names to watch are Ivan Pace Jr. — whose athleticism will be called upon against Hurts' legs — and Akayleb Evans, who has a tough task in covering A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. A takeaway or two will likely be required for the Vikings to have a chance.

Again, I don't expect the Vikings to win this game. It is very possible that the Eagles win in blowout fashion again. But with O'Connell cooking up a plan for his loaded group of pass-catchers and Flores getting creative with his pressure looks, you never know. If Cousins plays well and the Vikings take care of the football, they'll give themselves an opportunity to pull off the upset in primetime.

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