Matthew Coller: Darnold's arm talent is making anything possible with Vikings offense

The former top pick is in the top 3 in the NFL in big-time throws this season.

Dec 1, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) passes against the Arizona Cardinals in the third quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

EAGAN — If you stop the tape when Sam Darnold first brings his arm back to throw the football and then look where Jordan Addison was in his route, it’s mind bending trying to figure out how Darnold knew where he was going to be and how he put the exact right amount of velocity and arc on the ball to make it travel over a leaping defender and into Addison’s hands. It’s like watching a golfer drop a chip shot onto the green — but the green is moving at 20 mph.

On the sideline, offensive coordinator Wes Phillips was worried in the moment that the ball wouldn’t get over the underneath zone defender.

“We react just like everybody else,” Phillips said. “‘Ahhhhh!’ And, you know, ‘man, what a throw, great throw.’”

“He's confident in his ability and knows that he has that in his bag, definitely not a throw that I ever would have attempted,” said Phillips, who played quarterback in college.

Running back Aaron Jones was still a little frustrated with himself that he didn’t catch a Darnold dime earlier in the game on a throw into the end zone. The veteran running back, who spent the majority of his career catching balls from the legendary arm of Aaron Rodgers, sees similarities with how Darnold spins it.

“I would say they both got talent, they can both stretch the field,” Jones said. “To me, they're similar. Even when you think you're not open, you're open. He's going to put it to where only you can get it. I had one in the game that I probably should have had. But a lot of quarterbacks aren't even throwing that ball.”

TJ Hockenson spent the early part of his career with one of the top arm talents of the last two decades in the NFL: Rams QB Matthew Stafford. Hockenson gets a kick out of watching Darnold make some of the same types of throws that he saw from the former No. 1 overall pick Stafford.

“I love seeing Sam let loose those balls — a lot of the time you know he'll throw one deep and it's fun to watch and it kind of just soar through the air, it looks like he just flicks it and it goes,” Hockenson said.

The veteran tight end named several other high-difficulty passes besides the ball to Addison as his favorites from the win over Arizona.

“There's one where I sat down, and [the linebacker] comes to me, and he hits Jets [Jefferson] on the [route] behind, that was pretty sweet,” Hockenson said. “Looking at that on the jumbotron, it barely got past his hand. When he does stuff like that, he's one of the best at doing it.”

Is there a Stafford-style no-look pass in Darnold’s future?

“I haven't seen that one come out from Sam, but I'm sure he can do it,” Hockenson said.

Darnold’s gift for throwing the football has been there since the first time he played quarterback but it wasn’t always refined. He was originally a linebacker and receiver in high school and didn’t play a full season until he was a senior. He had to learn not to throw the ball through a wall every time.

“Every single ball I throw doesn't need to be a fastball,” Darnold said. “Being able to throw with some touch, but other times, man, sometimes you got to drill it in there and not be afraid to do that.”

There were a lot of traits that got Darnold picked high in the NFL Draft but ability to throw with touch and “drill it in there” was at the center of him being drafted No. 3 overall in 2018. NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein wrote in Darnold’s draft profile: “There isn't a throw he fears…Naturally accurate with tight spirals. Has arm talent to uncork it quickly. Rifles it to hitches and swing passes giving them time to operate. Has velocity, timing and accuracy to own the deep out.”

All of those traits are coming together this year with the Vikings.

Entering Week 13, Darnold ranks third in the NFL in PFF’s big-time throws statistic (25), which tracks high-difficulty passes, usually downfield. The only guys ahead of him are Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, who each have one more than Darnold.

Head coach Kevin O’Connell has leaned into Darnold’s ability to throw deep. The 27-year-old quarterback has the fourth deepest average depth of target and 36.9% of his passes are traveling at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Darnold ranks second in completion percentage on throws beyond 20 yards and 13th in passes from 10-19 yards with the second most big-time throws in that area.

Darnold has always had this type of arm but has never had this type of success throwing deep before. In 2021, he only connected on 27% of deep balls.

Why is it working so well now?

Having a cannon arm is undoubtedly a physical trait but completing passes with a cannon arm has a lot more elements to it. Eyes, timing, opportunity.

“I think it's things that you have to learn through experience, just seeing different defenses and understanding if a guy is dropping in that zone, kind of what coverage it is, and that they might be a little softer in the back end that I might have time and might have the room to be able to just lay one right over him and put some touch on it,” Darnold said.

Darnold explained that getting work against Brian Flores’s defense all summer helped him better identify coverages after the snap and understand where he could throw the ball.

“You're not necessarily going to know exactly what coverage they are in, but you're going to just have to throw into certain windows and throw to spots,” Darnold said.

The throw to Addison was an example of putting the ball into a window that he has practiced many, many times and trusting that the receiver would be there.

“Sometimes whether it's Josh Metellus or Harry [Harrison Smith] trying to get under that bench route [the route Addison ran]… being able to make those throws throughout the offseason has helped me a ton with just kind of our timing and our rhythm.”

Having receivers who can execute routes with precision and make high-difficulty grabs in traffic is playing into Darnold maximizing his arm talent. When he targets Jefferson over 10 yards downfield, he is 35-for-54 with 792 yards. That stat is made even more remarkable when you consider that opponents are focusing their gameplans so much on Jefferson. And when he can’t get to Jefferson, Addison is 18-for-34 with 471 yards when the ball travels 10+ yards in the air past the line of scrimmage.

“To fit those throws in the tight windows and just being able to run those deep throws and being able to take the top off defenses, those are things that the defense has got to respect,” Jefferson said. “There's countless times where we went over top and we made some long throws — J.A. [Jordan Addison] took the top off plenty of times — throughout the season. We feel like the whole playbook is open just being able to throw it all across the field.”

How does Darnold’s arm actually open up the playbook?

Phillips said that it changes the dynamic with the types of downfield routes they can put into a gameplan.

“When you know he can make any of the throws you put out there, you can get creative,” he said. “As long as you can protect it, you can try to triple move and do all the fun stuff.”

O’Connell admitted that sometimes he has to keep the part about pass protecting in mind — there is still a pass rush coming to get Darnold.

“I think you got to watch yourself sometimes, because you're almost getting to a place where you think of course he'll be able to make that throw,” O’Connell said. “Of course, he'll be able to make that throw. There's other factors involved like protection and the pocket's got to allow time for some of this stuff to express itself.”

The Vikings O-line plays a big role in Darnold being able to maximize his Howitzer. He is averaging 3.1 seconds from snap to throw, the third longest in the NFL. PFF ranks the Vikings line fourth best in pass blocking. He’s never had that before. In 2021, Carolina ranked 28th by PFF in pass blocking. The Jets were 31st, 28th, and 22nd in his years starting in New York.

It helps that Darnold doesn’t need a perfect pocket. On his 69-yard completion to Addison against Chicago, he didn’t have any room to step into his throw and still sent it whizzing 25 yards downfield into Addison’s hands at full speed. That play also took time to develop. Darnold can also wait for routes downfield to come open a little bit longer than other QBs.

“There are guys in this league that are extremely accurate but if they get moved a little bit and they're not able to throw on time, then that route down the field, is gone. It's dead,” Phillips said. “So Sam still has that strength through his arm to be able to maybe slide, maybe be a click later, and make that same throw down the field.”

The way PFF tracks big-time throws is usually related to the distance the ball traveled. Sixteen of his 25 BTTs have gone more than 20 yards down field but O’Connell doesn’t look at Darnold’s arm talent only through that lens. He used the example of finding weaknesses underneath against the Cardinals and Darnold being able to whiz the football between defenders or put it in places where his receiver could come back to the ball.

“We figured out, as the game went on, where the holes in the coverage may be,” O’Connell said. “Sometimes, it was a moving route through that area. Sometimes, it was our receivers doing a great job coming back to the football through the zones and then Sam anticipating those windows and then having the ability to drive the football… there was just countless examples.”

Even the game-winning play, a simple short pass to Jones, had to be on the money in order for him to scamper into the end zone.

“[The throw was] one foot in front of the numbers to Aaron [Jones],” O’Connell said. “Aaron makes a great catch and walks in the end zone. Sometimes, you can take for granted — even me calling the plays — just the pitch and catch value of what Sam's brought this year and then the plays and the rapport he has with the guys catching the football has been really fun to watch, just slowly build and build.”

Over the last three weeks, Darnold is PFF’s No. 1 quarterback in overall grade. The slow building process seems like it’s coming to fruition as the 10-2 Vikings face an important stretch in the race for playoff position.

When the season began, they may have wanted to ease their new quarterback into the scheme, try to play run-first and make things as easy for Darnold as they could. But now, in the best division in football and in the heat of the playoff race, the Vikings know that they are going to go as far as Darnold’s big arm can take them.

“We're at the point where there's an expectation from our guys that we're going to go out and make enough plays in the passing game to win the game,” O’Connell said.