Matthew Coller: Everything that went right and wrong for the Vikings vs. Detroit

The Vikings lost 31-9. What do the numbers and KOC's comments on Monday tell us about the result and what's next.

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) is pressured by Detroit Lions linebacker Alex Anzalone (34) and linebacker Al-Quadin Muhammad (69) during the second half at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025. / Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Minnesota Vikings lost 31-9 against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on Sunday night. Let’s have a look at what the numbers and Kevin O’Connell’s comments on Monday revealed about the game….

What went wrong

Darnold under pressure

For the majority of the season, Darnold has been very good under duress, completing 49% of his passes with 7.3 yards per attempt under pressure and an 87.1 QB rating (third best in the NFL). That was nowhere near the case against the Lions. In total he was pressured on 22 drop-backs (49%) and went 4-for-18 passing when the heat was on.

The Lions blitzed Darnold like crazy (46.7% of drop-backs), which is interesting because he had destroyed the blitz throughout the year. In fact, no quarterback in the NFL had a higher QB rating against the blitz than Darnold (123.3). The blitzes had mixed results but it was the unblitzed snaps where the Vikings QB really struggled, going 8-for-22 when Detroit DC Aaron Glenn didn’t send at least one extra rusher.

Intermediate and deep passing

When Darnold is at his best, he’s hitting on the downfield passing game. As you might have figured out, he was not at his best against the Lions. On throws that traveled beyond 10 yards, he went 2-for-12 with 58 yards.

If we were just looking on paper, it would be worth asking how the Lions blitzed so much and yet Darnold wasn’t able to find downfield receivers but the eye test pretty clearly saw him missing open receivers and getting pressured when the Vikings attempted to use longer developing routes.

It didn’t help that the underneath passing game was not particularly fruitful. Darnold threw 23 passes that did not go past 10 yards and completed 17 but only averaged 4.7 yards per attempt.

Justin Jefferson drops / contested catches

Darnold put all the blame on himself after the game and he was almost completely right. Almost.

Justin Jefferson had two drops that came at the most inopportune times. One was in the end zone that could have turned the tides with a touchdown and another was on a third down where a reception could have kept the Vikings’ drive going. PFF tracked three contested catch opportunities for Jefferson and he went 0-for-3. On the season, he has grabbed 60% of contested catches.

Those plays were about as uncharacteristic as it gets for the star receiver, who had one drop since the last time the Vikings played the Lions in Week 7. It was by far his worst PFF graded game of the season and the worst he’s had since an early 2022 game versus the Lions.

Targeting Hockenson

In a game where the opponent is blitzing, Hockenson is a normally a terrific option but Darnold could not connect with him the way he has underneath since the Pro Bowl tight end returned from his ACL injury. Darnold completed just two passes on eight attempts when targeting Hockenson and gained nine yards on the two completions.

“Going into the game I thought there would be some opportunities for T.J. [Hockenson] and there were some really competitive plays,” O’Connell said. “I thought the second third down of the game that ended our first drive, I'd be willing to bet that's and that's pretty close to the nine out of ten completions right there and we've got a new set of downs in in their half of the 50 and with our defense getting a stop early. Those are the plays in a game like that, that you've got to find a way to make.”

The left side of the O-line cratered

We have not seen the Vikings offensive line allow pressure like they did on Sunday night in a long time. Cam Robinson picked the worst time to have his worst game. He gave up nine pressures, including a sack. Blake Brandel had one of the worst guard games in recent memory with eight QB pressures. He had a 30.7 grade.

The Vikings had no answer for DT Levi Onwuzurike, who picked up nine pressures.

Talk about week-to-week league. Last week against Green Bay, the O-line had arguably their best game of the season.

The common thread is that the Packers didn’t blitz anywhere near as much as Lions. It seemed Detroit had a rush plan that flummoxed the Vikings O-line and Darnold’s protection adjustments. That was likely exacerbated by the noise.

You can bet that the Rams took notice and will be deploying some of the same strategies with their excellent front.

“There’s a few [pressures] there that they're bringing more than you got to block,” O’Connell said. “Maybe there's examples where we had some chances versus some four-man rush and didn't handle whatever they were doing up front in a really positive way. At that point, we took some significant losses that in a drive-starting play where there was some potential to maybe at least get the ball thrown away, if not find one of the open-eligibles down the field, but at the same time, I think we've got to do some things to help Sam [Darnold]. Equip him with more ability to get the ball out of his hands and that can come in a variety of different ways.”

Andrew Krammer of the Star Tribune wrote more extensively on the subject.

The middle of the field was open

As he has so often, Lions QB Jared Goff was absolutely dominant when he worked the middle of the field. He completed 18-of-21 passing overall in the middle and 12-for-13 between 0-9 yards in the middle. When Goff attacked any Viking safety or linebacker in coverage, he went 14-for-16 passing.

That may have something to do with the fact the Vikings sent at least one extra rusher on 68% of Goff’s drop-backs. Both of his interceptions came against the blitz but otherwise he was calm against the heat, going 18-for-24 with 172 yards. The veteran quarterback seems to fully understand where all of his options are when he’s under duress, making him hard to beat with pressure. If the Vikings face Detroit again, it’s worth wondering if they will keep going back to the blitz well.

Kicking game

Will Reichard missing from 50+ was understandable considering the distance but the timing was miserable as Detroit quickly turned the miscue into a touchdown and a 14-point swing in about three minutes. Since he returned from a quad injury, Reichard is 10-for-14 (and 15-for-15 XP). Two of the misses were from 50+, yet it still seems to raise a red flag because he was so good before going on IR. Reichard made his first 14 field goals and only missed in the game where he got hurt.

“I have a ton of confidence in Will [Reichard],” O’Connell said. “He's come off that injury that he had, he got healthy, and it's just getting back into a flow and consistency. I know Will is as confident as any kicker I've ever been around in himself and holds himself to an incredibly high standard so, when results don't happen for him as a young player, I think it shows sometimes and that's ok. I know the team has the confidence in him and I have confidence in him.”

Plus the young kicker booted a kickoff out of bounds that opened the door for a Lions field goal at the end of the half. O’Connell said Monday the ball was a “mishit.”

Playoff scenarios

The Vikings loss combined with a win by the Seattle Seahawks resulted in the Vikings being sent out to Los Angeles to play a Rams team that made the playoffs despite starting the season 1-4. You’ll never guess when their turnaround happened: When they beat the Vikings 30-20 on October 24th. Since then they are 7-2 in games where they played starters. That’s much, much tougher than hosting a home playoff game after a week off.

The only silver lining is that there is a chance they can avoid Detroit in the Divisional Round. If either Green Bay or Washington wins in the first round, the Vikings will not have to play the Lions and if both the Packers and Commanders win, the Vikings would host a home playoff game.

What went right

Health

The Vikings may have gotten a pretty poor result but they did not add injury to insult. According to O’Connell, they came out “relatively clean” from the game injury wise. There was no update yet on Patrick Jones’s status. Going into Los Angeles at full health will be an advantage for the Vikings.

Cam Akers spelling Aaron Jones

The Vikings couldn’t have asked for much more from their running backs. Aaron Jones gained 45 yards on 10 carries and caught five passes for 30 yards. Still, he appeared to be banged up so Cam Akers ended up taking 20 snaps. He made the most of them with six carries for 65 yards (one was for 58) and he did not give up a pressure on three pass blocking snaps.

Akers finishes the year with 297 yards on 64 carries (4.6 YPC). His acquisition has proven to be key down the stretch.

Jalen Nailor impact plays

There was only one Vikings receiver who got an above average grade from PFF for Sunday’s game and that was Nailor. WR3 showed up for the second straight week, this time catching three passes for 53 yards.

Ivan Pace Jr. and Josh Metellus causing havoc

Pace Jr. intercepted a pass that Metellus tipped in the air. That play had the potential to change the game if the Vikings had been able to finish inn the red zone. Out of six times Pace Jr. rushed the passer, he created pressure on three of the snaps. He was credited with four stops for negative plays on his six tackles.

Metellus rushed Goff on eight occasions and caused pressure three times, including coming within inches of blowing up a fourth down conversion. The hybrid safety has nine pressures in the last four weeks and finished the regular season as the No. 1 safety in QB pressures in the NFL, PFF’s fifth highest graded tackler and ninth best run defender.

Blowing up Detroit screens and play-actions

The Lions are usually a dangerous team in the screen game but the Vikings were having none of that. They attempted six screens and gained a total of -3 yards.

The defense was also able to keep the prolific play-action game in check with just 74 yards allowed on 13 drop-backs with Goff using play-action.