Matthew Coller: Five under-the-radar factors in Vikings-Lions

Are there any angles that haven't been covered? Well, maybe a couple...

Nov 3, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings place kicker Will Reichard (16) kicks an extra point against the Indianapolis Colts in the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

The NFL media at large has been hyper-focused on the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Vikings and Lions because the No. 1 seed in the NFC is at stake. That means that all the major storylines have been covered, but that doesn’t mean all the factors that could determine the outcome have been unearthed. Let’s look at a few that are flying under the radar…

Dallas Turner (and Gabriel Murphy’s?) role

The Vikings enter Sunday’s game almost completely healthy but the one missing man from the defense is veteran outside linebacker Pat Jones. He ranks third on the team in sacks and fourth in QB pressures. Jones has also been on the field often, playing 459 plays, the vast majority of which have come as a pass rusher (314).

How will they replace him? We could see more of rookie Dallas Turner, whose snap count has significantly increased in recent weeks from playing only five plays against Detroit in Week 7 to over 25 in four of the last five weeks. With more opportunities, Turner has made more plays. He picked up a sack last week against the Packers and picked off Geno Smith two weeks ago in a key matchup with the Seahawks.

“Not only snap counts, but actual impactful plays, Dallas has really had a pretty significant role here for the better part of this nine-game run we've been on,” head coach Kevin O’Connell said. “Felt his play style, energy, athleticism…So I expect DT to be flying around.”

The last time Jones missed a game, it was Gabriel Murphy who took on a lot of Jones’s responsibilities, particularly as an inside rusher. Murphy was on the field for 28 snaps that week against Atlanta. He had one QB pressure and received a 69.5 PFF grade for the game. Will Brian Flores trust a UDFA with 28 snaps to play on the biggest stage? Would anyone be surprised if he did?

Detroit’s corners vs. the refs

Per NFLPenalties.com, the Lions’ defensive backs have been flagged 33 times for 401 yards this season. Rookie Terrion Arnold leads the entire league with 11 all by himself. To put those numbers in context, the entire Vikings secondary has 16 total penalties and the leader is Stephon Gilmore with just five. As you might have heard, the Vikings have a receiver who draws more flags than any other in Justin Jefferson.

In a massive game on the Sunday Night Football stage, will the refs eat the whistles and let Detroit get grabby with Jefferson?

Referee Brad Rogers will be in charge of the action at Ford Field. This year his crew hasn’t been afraid to toss a hanky or two. No game reffed by Rogers has had fewer than 10 total penalties and there have been six instances of at least 16 penalties being called with him at the helm. Those stats put Rogers in the middle of the pack among NFL zebras (8th of 17). His crew has called 1.6 infractions for pass interference per game in 2024, which is a slightly higher mark than the two highest overall crews in the NFL this season.

There isn’t enough evidence to say that the ref choice benefits either team but the more the rules are called to the letter, the better odds the Vikings have at getting free yards because the Lions best man-to-man defender against Jefferson is not playing (Carlton Davis).

Can the Vikings make Gibbs block?

Last week against the 49ers, star Detroit RB Jahmyr Gibbs was used as a pass blocker on just two plays. Detroit’s answer in terms of giving Jared Goff extra protection has been to use other running backs or bigger personnel. In the win over San Francisco, backup runners Craig Reynolds and Jermar Jefferson were in for a combined five pass blocking snaps and they also mixed in TE Brock Wright and extra OL Dan Skipper.

Will the Vikings send extra rushers up the middle with hopes of forcing Gibbs to stay in to pick them up? In total he has only had 42 pass blocking snaps this season and has earned a 23.7 PFF grade (out of 100) as a pass protector. With Blake Cashman and Ivan Pace Jr. both healthy unlike the last time they saw Detroit, there could be plenty of combinations for inside rushes to test Gibbs whenever they can. The Lions could also try to sneak Gibbs out of the backfield anyway and look for big plays behind the blitz.

Jonathan Greenard vs. Taylor Decker

The Lions terrific left tackle has one game this season graded below 60 by PFF. That came against the Vikings. Outside linebacker Jonathan Greenard ate his lunch that day as Decker gave up six of Greenard’s nine total pressures that day. That was his highest mark of the season and it was his best PFF grade of the year. Will Decker have an adjustment? Will the Lions have a different answer? Will Jared Goff be able to overcome the pressure again as he did in Week 7?

All year Greenard has been the Vikings’ bright-lights player on defense. They will need him to be that again.

The kicking and returning battles

On Saturday, the Lions activated returner Kalif Raymond, who has been at the center of their league-leading 456 punt return yards and third-best 13.4 yards per return. Detroit also has the second best yards per return (31.4) on kickoffs, though they have only brought back 15 this season.

The Vikings are at the opposite side of the punt returning spectrum. They have the third fewest yards and the lowest average in the NFL. On kick returns, Minnesota is third-to-last in yards per return and has the second fewest number of returns.

Kicking is a concern for the Vikings after Will Reichard missed two kicks last week (and another that didn’t count). Overall he has kicked well since he returned from a quad injury but last week shook the idea that he is as flawless now as he was earlier in the year.

Detroit’s Jake Bates has the Lions in 8th place in field-goal percentage. He has proven especially accurate (6-for-8) from beyond 50 yards. Which kicker will be a game-changer?

It is worth noting that the Lions are also No. 1 in net yards per punt and the Vikings are 27th, but that stat may be skewed by Detroit only punting when they are pinned back on their side of the field.

Bonus factors:

Is it Josh Oliver time?

In a game where the Vikings want to hold onto the ball, run effectively and then work play-action, Oliver seems like the type of player who could end up having a big impact on the Vikings offense.

Risk-taking safeties

Detroit has struggled in coverage but they are good at taking the ball away in the secondary. Will we see them sell out with hopes of picking off Sam Darnold? Defensive back Brian Branch intercepted him in Week 7 and Kerby Joseph leads the NFL in picks.

Za’Darius revenge game?

The Vikings refused to pay Za’Darius Smith more money after his strong 2022 season, so he left for Cleveland. Now he is with the Lions after a mid-season trade and he has racked up 31 pressures in seven weeks. The Vikings know better than anyhow what he is capable of when he’s on his game.

Did Seattle prepare them?

Offensive players admitted to having some issues with the noise when they were in Seattle. They played very few road games in places where noise is a legitimate factor that it was a bit of a wakeup call. How will they manage the sound this time?

SI.com’s Albert Breer reported on Saturday that the Vikings bought 1,900 tickets to the game in order to try to turn the tides. Will that make a difference?

Will KOC match trick-play wits?

Detroit’s Ben Johnson has been brilliant when it comes to using trick plays, whereas the Vikings have rarely had successes with things like double reverses and passes by anyone outside of the quarterback. Will O’Connell try to pull a rabbit out of his hat at some point to serve Detroit some of their own medicine? Will there be fake punt? A Jefferson pass?