Matthew Coller: Fourth downs, trick plays and turnovers key in Vikings-Lions

Detroit's offense and aggressive approach creates a fascinating battle between a top offense and defense.

Oct 6, 2024; London, United Kingdom; Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores watches from the sidelines against the New York Jets in the second half at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

EAGAN — The matchup between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football is filled with drama because of the stakes but what makes the game even more compelling is that each team has its own unique way of playing that helped them reach the 14-win mark this season.

On Detroit’s side, their uniqueness begins with head coach Dan Campbell’s aggressive decision making on fourth down. Particularly in recent weeks since the Lions have suffered a run of defensive injuries, Campbell has pushed the go-for-it button even more often. Against the Green Bay Packers on December 5, the Lions converted 4-of-5 fourth downs, including a handoff on fourth-and-1 with a 3-point lead to seal the game. Two weeks later in a shootout with Buffalo they went 3-for-3 on fourth down and then last week versus the 49ers they picked up first downs twice on three attempts.

Overall, the Lions are not the top team in terms of attempting fourth downs but they are the top good team at rolling the dice. All four teams that have tried more fourth downs than Detroit are set to draft in the top 10, which tells us that many of those tries came out of desperation than strategy. For Campbell’s club, it’s part of the gameplan. And while he is often made out to be a madman, the Lions’ offensive talent has removed a lot of the risk associated with going for fourth downs and turned it into the smarter statistical play. Out of 29 attempts on fourth down, Detroit has 20 conversions, including five touchdowns.

Lions quarterback Jared Goff, who enters the final week of the season with the second highest quarterback rating in the NFL and second highest completion percentage, has excelled with the pressure on. He is 10-for-13 on fourth down with nine first downs and four touchdowns.

In the run game, Detroit also features three of the highest graded (by PFF) run blocking offensive linemen in Frank Ragnow, Penei Sewell and Kevin Zeitler. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs averages 5.6 yards per carry. He has been involved in six fourth down tries and converted five.

On the other side, the Vikings are the No. 1 fourth-down defense in the NFL. They have given up just 11 conversions on 31 attempts.

The Vikings know that it could be a big determining factor in Sunday night’s contest but opponents attempting fourth downs won’t be something brand new to them.

“I think that's kind of a league wide trend,” defensive coordinator Brian Flores said. “There's a lot more fourth down attempts in that world probably five, ten years ago….you've got to be ready for that down… defensively, you've got to have more calls…it's not just, ‘hey, third down, and it's over,’ which historically, that's what it's been… So we spent a lot of time on fourth down.”

While it’s true that the NFL continues to see more and more fourth down attempts each year, the Lions are their own different type of animal.

“They’ll do it on their side of the 50… it shows the confidence that they play with and when you have a good O-line and skill players you’re going to have a lot of trust in them…it’s something we have to prepare for,” outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel said. “When they know their going for it on fourth down then the whole playbook is open on third down and they can run it on third down.”

Detroit has attempted to convert a fourth down on seven occasions on their own side of the field, including a fake punt against the Vikings earlier this year. CJ Ham and Josh Metellus made a stop on that play and quickly turned it into points.

On Wednesday, head coach Kevin O’Connell said that he views fourth down stops like turnovers.

“Many times those are those are such critical field position plays,” O’Connell said. “It's not just the ones at the goal line where it's fourth-and-1 at the one…Chicago went for it early and I thought that was a huge momentum play against us on Monday night. You can think back to a lot of those this year.”

Speaking of turnovers, the ability to cause them and prevent them will be a storyline in Vikings vs. Lions as well.

The Vikings have allowed opponents to score on a league-low 30.7% of their drives this season, a stat that is rooted in their ability to take the ball away. They have forced 31 turnovers, tied for the most in the NFL. Out of those 31 takeaways, 22 are interceptions, which leads the league by three over the next best team.

“One thing I keep circling back to with [the defense] is turnovers,” O’Connell said. “It's one thing to play good defense, which they have. It's one thing to stop the run, which they have…but when you are able to take the football away in every single game, that's providing…those are momentum plays for your entire team, not just getting off the field on a third down, and then a punting play flips the whole field position. It's field position plays. It's momentum plays… like what [Ivan Pace Jr.] did when Josh Metellus punched it out against these guys the first time around.”

Momentum plays like Metellus’s forced fumble that led to an Ivan Pace Jr. touchdown in the two teams’ first matchup have not gone against the Lions very often this season. Detroit has the sixth fewest drives that have ended in turnovers — and that’s despite having one game where Goff was intercepted five times.

The most impressive number regarding the lack of turnovers committed by the Lions is their three fumbles lost all season. That is the third lowest mark since 2020.

“They do a great job of taking care of it,” Daniels said. “Ball security is obviously at a premium for those guys…They do a great job…making sure they're not putting themselves in those type of positions, even where they're risking it to be able to turn the football over. The ball carriers do a great job of holding on to a second hand cover when they're in traffic. You don't see a lot of balls away from the body right there….[Goff has] got two hands on it…even when he's feeling pressure, escaping out of the pocket… So if guys do come from the blind side, it's gonna be hard for him to take it away.”

The shortage of turnovers is even more surprising when you consider the number of trick plays that the Lions deploy. They have thrown two passes to offensive linemen and attempted passes with punter Jake Fox, receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and running back David Montgomery. Superstar tackle Penei Sewell looked so much like he was going to throw the ball earlier this year that the official scoring of his 1-yard loss was a sack. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has also dialed up 11 run plays for speedster wide receiver Jameson Williams and the Lions have occasionally utilized the “hook-and-ladder” play where a receiver catches the ball and pitches it to another player.

“Ben's got a lot in the bag, and you've got to be ready for all of it,” Flores said. “To me, it comes down to fundamentals and techniques and edge setters setting the edges and playing with the right leverage and coverage and getting to your landmarks and kind of those routine things that are kind of boring…I think oftentimes what happens is, everybody wants to make a play or get involved, or run to the football. And Detroit kind of uses that to their advantage, which is smart by them.”

Detroit does appear to be going deep into its bag to gain any possible edges that they can get but the fundamental elements of their offense have driven them to the No. 1 spot in the NFL in scoring. For example, they have the sixth most rushing yards and Goff leads the NFL in yardage when his team is utilizing play-action. The Lions also gain 8.2 yards per screen pass (1st). And Goff has the sixth lowest percentage of his drop-backs that are pressured.

The veteran QB has handled blitzes brilliantly this season, especially against the Vikings in Week 7 when he went 15-for-16 passing vs. at least five rushers with 165 yards and a touchdown.

So the question: How will the Vikings will attack Goff this time? Will they have some Belichickian tricks up their sleeve or will they remain aggressive and dare Goff to complete 85% of his throws while under pressure like he did the first time around.

Or will the Vikings defense look different to Goff because of the way they have grown and changed throughout the year?

“As the season has gone, I think the coolest part has been the subtle nuances and kind of evolution week to week,” O’Connell said of his defense. “One of the things [Flores] and I talked about even going back to when we first got together to talk about him coming here was an identity of a team that can kind of morph into what we think, week in and week out, that can win football games…empowering those guys to have the ownership of the plan. They've got ownership on the field to make adjustments. And it's been really cool to watch.”

One advantage over the last matchup that the Vikings have is the fact linebacker Blake Cashman in the lineup. He has been in charge of must of the Vikings adjustments and the Vikings haven’t lost this year with him playing.

Those are just a few factors that will play roles in determining the outcome of Sunday night’s winner-gets-first-place matchup. The fourth downs, trick plays, turnovers and adjustments only begin to tell the story of the matchup between Flores’s 4th ranked defense facing the best offense in the league.