Matthew Coller: Ivan Pace Jr. to IR is a tough blow to Vikings defense

Pace Jr. and Blake Cashman have built chemistry that will be difficult to replace.

Nov 17, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Minnesota Vikings linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. (0) sneaks a peak into the backfield against the Tennessee Titans during the second half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Vikings announced on Tuesday that Ivan Pace Jr. has been placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. It was not clear from the team’s press release whether he will have a chance to return this season but if he is designated to return then the Vikings will be without him for at least four weeks.

No matter how long he’s going to be out, replacing Pace Jr. will be a significant challenge for the Vikings defense.

In particular he will be missed within Brian Flores’s blitz packages. This season he has been one of the Vikings biggest impact pass rushers and one of the best blitzing linebackers in the NFL.

Pace Jr. has the sixth best pass rushing grade among inside LBs by Pro Football Focus and ranks fifth in total QB pressures with 15 on 62 rush attempts. The most telling stat is the fact Pace Jr. ranks No. 1 in the league in PFF’s pass rush win rate (25.9%), just above future Hall of Famer Bobby Wagner.

It isn’t just that the second-year LB from Cincinnati is succeeding when blitzing, he’s also running after quarterbacks often. He has the 10th highest percentage of his total plays that are made up with blitzes.

It has been well documented that Flores sends extra rushers routinely. This year the Vikings are No. 1 in percentage of plays with at least five rushers and they are No. 1 in pressure percentage.

That is now more difficult to sustain without their top blitzer. Veteran Kamu Grugier-Hill and box safety Josh Metellus will likely be called upon to make up the difference as they did when Blake Cashman was out but neither player has the rushing resume that Pace Jr. possesses.

On the Vikings upcoming schedule will be QBs who are particularly blitz-able. Arizona’s Kyler Murray ranks 25th in PFF grade when blitzed. Kirk Cousins is 20th, Jared Goff is 16th and Jordan Love is 33rd. Geno Smith and Caleb Williams (as he proved Sunday) have good numbers when blitzed.

In response to the injury, the Vikings signed a former top draft pick who is no stranger to blitzing, linebacker Jamin Davis. They grabbed him off the Packers practice squad.

The 2021 first-round pick of the Commanders, who was released earlier this year by Washington after playing in five games, was sent on blitzes 126 and created 21 pressures. He has graded well as a run defender and tackler.

The run defense will be another part of Pace Jr.’s game that will be difficult to replace. He is the 8th highest graded run defender on a team that has allowed the fewest number of rush yards in the NFL this season. In the coming weeks they will match up against some talented RBs, including Bijan Robinson of Atlanta.

The Vikings have been extremely healthy overall this season save for a short stretch without Cashman. This will be a test of their depth and ability to schematically overcome the absence of a key player.

It’s also unfortunate for Pace Jr., who emerged last year from undrafted free agency. Year 2 was a test of whether he could continue to play at a high level and he has passed in flying colors so far.