Matthew Coller: The Vikings are making their opponents prepare for the big boys

With less experienced receivers and need to run the ball better, KOC may look to the big fellas.

Josh Oliver / Minnesota Vikings

EAGAN — When the Minnesota Vikings signed Josh Oliver to a three-year, $21 million contract, most of the reaction could be summarized as: “Huh?”

No doubt, Oliver was one of the best run-blocking tight ends in the NFL but head coach Kevin O’Connell had run 73% of his plays out of three-receiver personnel groupings (11 personnel, for short) in 2022, per SumerSports data. With Pro Bowler TJ Hockenson locked into the TE1 spot, how were they going to fit another tight end into the mix?

At O’Connell’s previous stop in Los Angeles with head coach Sean McVay, the idea of multiple tight ends or a fullback on the field is darn near sacrilegious. In 2023, the Rams played 93% of their snaps out of 11 personnel and used two TEs on just 4.9% of plays. Both rates were the highest in the league. But with Oliver and veteran Johnny Mundt in the mix alongside star TJ Hockenson, O’Connell shifted his personnel philosophy in 2023, playing either two or three TEs on 25.4% of plays, up from just 12% the year before.

Add in the 7.6% of reps with fullback CJ Ham in a two-back set and you have a squad that was suddenly much more diverse with personnel than it had been the previous season.

The results with the big folks on the field in 2023 were not inspiring. Among 14 teams that used 12 personnel (one RB, two TE) at least 20% of the time, the Vikings ranked 12th in Expected Points Added.

In general, passing out of 2-TE sets works. Out of the 14 regular 12-personnel users, had positive EPA when throwing the ball. A lot of teams performed much better on a per-play basis, including the two teams in the Super Bowl. Kansas City’s EPA per play went from 0.03 with three receivers (15th) to 0.22 (7th) with two tight ends. San Francisco’s jumped from 0.27 (1st) to 0.61 (1st).

The reason EPA is better with 2-TEs across the league is that teams usually use 12 personnel when they are in situations where they can either run or pass. Only four teams threw at least 60% of the time out of 2TE sets, the Vikings passed 48% of plays. We rarely see the beefy dudes out there on third down and that’s where a lot of negative plays happen.

Unfortunately for the Vikings they were one of the two teams that did not improve through the air with more size on the field. Their passing EPA per pass went from 0.06 in 11 personnel to -0.11 with an extra tight end and one fewer receiver. You could say that the numbers were thrown off by the plethora of backup QBs playing after Kirk Cousins got hurt but even teams with backup or bad QBs like the Falcons, Titans, Bears and Giants ended up better. Not to mention the Vikings were still the 12th best EPA/play team when passing out of 11 personnel.

Where they were improved was on the ground. The Vikings went from 28th in EPA/play with 11 personnel to 13th with an extra TE out there. That’s probably not a coincidence since Oliver ranked as the third best run blocker with 200 or more run snaps.

“It’s a big bonus when an offense has a tight end like Josh where you can count on him to have a single block,” linebacker Blake Cashman told Purple Insider. “A lot of tight ends can’t do it. As linebackers, we all have a lot of respect for JO because he’s one of the better blocking tight ends in this league. But he’s also a duel threat. You have to respect him in the pass game. If he’s run blocking or you’re blitzing, you have to have a plan. A lot of guys aren’t thinking about that when they’re taking on a tight end, it’s usually strike and shed but a guy like that can anchor and you have to approach him like a tackle.”

Over the last two seasons the Vikings have had one of the better trios of receivers in the NFL, whether it was Jefferson-Thielen-Osborn or Jefferson-Addison-Osborn, it stands to reason that they would live in 11 personnel often because that was a strength. Oliver’s presence was much heavier on the run side (243 run snaps vs. 154 passing) because they had exceptional receivers for the passing downs and Hockenson.

They were also a wildly pass-heavy offense, throwing the third most out of 11 personnel of any team in the NFL.

But entering 2024, the personnel has changed and the quarterback might benefit from a less pass-first offense than the one that was built for veteran dart-thrower Kirk Cousins.

At receiver, Osborn’s replacements had a grand total of 16 receptions combined in 2023. The combo of Johnny Mundt and Oliver grabbed 39 passes on 51 targets with 20 first downs last year. Aside from third downs, the TEs might end up being better options at times, especially when trying to get the ball out of Darnold’s hands quickly to get the offense moving.

“[Oliver] in the pass game is a big presence, he’s a guy you can have coverage and he can still make catches. Having a little size advantage DBs can be an advantage,” safety Harrison Smith told Purple Insider.

“Josh, as big as he is, he still can move and he has a big catch radius and go and high-point the ball,” receiver Justin Jefferson said. “Even when we’re in those 12 personnel, 21 personnel, we’re still able to throw the ball and move the ball downfield.”

It seems too simple, however, to say: More tight ends and profit!

If only it were as easy as clicking the 2-TE button on Madden. O’Connell put thought this offseason into the workflow and implementation process of mixing and matching different personnel.

“From a simple preparation standpoint, you get into the week in and week out of a season, if you've got to watch multiple personnel groupings, that takes time away from honing in on maybe an extra detail in this grouping or that grouping,” O’Connell explained. “It's really kind of just changed the way I go about the week. We've kind of evolved and tried to do some things with our run game, learning, different ways of not only doing that, but then how does that affect the past game and the ability to marry it all up?”

Darnold might benefit greatly from marrying it all up. In 2022, when Darnold had one of the best stretches of his career, he graded 73.3 by PFF when using play-action and 56.7 without it. In 55 play-action attempts, he only had one turnover-worthy play and one sack and went 33-for-55 with 8.2 yards per attempt.

Also, defenses do not seem to love chasing around play-actions all day.

“As a linebacker you always want to have a good run/pass key to help yourself on the play but no matter what coaching staff I’ve had we always drill what we call a ‘panic drop,’ so if you do get caught in the run action and it’s a play-fake you have to stick your foot in the ground and [get back in coverage],” Cashman said.

Another way to look at using multiple tight ends or fullback groupings is through the lens of the defense and their preparation. The league average for 12 personnel is only 19.3% of plays and there are nine teams below 15%. That means that opposing defenses are taken out of their comfort zone when they aren’t playing vs. three receivers. Most defenses play the vast majority in nickel and don’t often employ a No. 3 LB that they want to put on the field for more than 20% of snaps. It takes extra prep to be ready for something different.

“They have to evaluate how we do things compared to maybe other teams that are [using] more or less 21 or 12 or 13 or whatever it is,” O’Connell said.

But there is a cat and mouse game to that. If O’Connell is preparing for how he’s going to deploy packages with Mundt and Oliver, he’s studying how opponents have gone against bigger personnel. If the opponent knows the Vikings are doing it often, they might implement something that the Vikings have not seen on tape before.

“There's no rule that says they have to play exactly the way they did on any one particular game or snap,” O’Connell said. “So, you’ve got to be ready to evolve. You've got to have a system where you can identify things. You've got to have a system where all 11 guys, regardless of what the defense does, can have a clear-cut plan of how they want to play out each play, and then where it goes from there is kind of an in game, fun side of it.”

As with almost anything in football, there is an element of the meaty personnel packages that can’t be easily quantified, no matter how hard we try.

“If a team is getting big personnel and big bodies as a linebacker you’re thinking that you’ve gotta strap up and play some big-boy football,” Cashman said.

Since the Kubiak-Stefanski years, we haven’t seen many defenses need to strap up and play big boy football against the Vikings. Back in the 2019 opener against the Falcons, Cousins threw 10 passes while Dalvin Cook ran 21 times at 5.3 yards per carry and demoralized Atlanta. In two years with KOC, Cousins won just two of his 17 victories while throwing 30 passes or fewer.

Star RB Aaron Jones should play a significant role in playing better big-boy football this year than the Vikings did with Alex Mattison in 2024. Jones averages 5.0 yards per carry for his career and has a knack for embarrassing tacklers.

That’s part of the point. Mixing personnel isn’t just about confusing or bullying the opponent, it’s also about finding ways to enhance the best players, whether it’s more push for Jones or more room for Jefferson.

“I feel like they stack the box a little bit more whenever we have bigger guys in our offense,” Jefferson said.

SumerSports’ data only includes 2022 and 2023 but there was a 2% uptick in plays out of 2-TE sets from year to year and an increase in teams passing more than 50% of the time when using the larger gentlemen. It certainly isn’t a new idea to use more blocking types but it might be something that continues to evolve around the league as defenses get smaller and faster every year.

“I’ve been around long enough to have played in an era when [using bigger personnel] was more en vogue,” safety Smith told Purple Insider.

Maybe it will be again in 2024.