Matthew Coller: Vikings loss to Rams showed where they must improve
GLENDALE, Ariz. — In the leadup to the Minnesota Vikings’ matchup with the Los Angeles Rams, the phrase that kept going through my mind was: “Styles make fights.”
If you’re a boxing fan, you have heard that one 10,000 times but it is usually accompanied with somebody saying that you can throw out the records of the two fighters because they compare more closely due to their strategy and technique.
No team liked to push the ball downfield more than the Vikings during the regular season. Very few teams were more dangerous along the front four than the Rams. The Vikings’ offensive line had just come off its worst game of the year against the Detroit Lions. The Rams’ nasty front was well rested after sitting starters in Week 18.
On the coaching side, Sean McVay had already gone through his playoff foibles en route to eventual Super Bowl in 2021. Kevin O’Connell had only one playoff game under his belt, a loss to the Giants in 2022. The playoff experience factor was on McVay’s side, not to mention his deep understanding of O’Connell’s influences.
The Vikings defense had also been a blitz monster all season long, leading the league in percentage of snaps including at least one extra rusher. The Rams were armed with one of the smartest, toughest quarterbacks in the NFL. Matthew Stafford crushed the blitz all season long.
You already know the result. All the stylistic edges were big time in the Rams’ favor. When the advanced stats were published by Pro Football Focus on Tuesday, it became even more evident just how much the Rams dominated in every area where they seemed to have the advantage.
For starters, the pressure up front. Sam Darnold received a mountain of criticism during the game but the stats tell us that there was more to the story. He was pressured on 54% of his drop-backs, including 12 pressures allowed by left tackle Cam Robinson. While Robinson had been a steadying force during the season, his performance slipped at the end of the year and he got steamrolled by young star Jared Verse and the different rush patterns of the Rams.
Darnold does deserve criticism for holding onto the ball for too long and for going backward in attempt to escape the rush too often, however, it seemed that the Rams knew exactly how KOC would try to counter the Rams’ pass rushers and stayed one step ahead the entire game.
ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky broke down the protection issues on TV, saying: “Kevin O’Connell, surprisingly, got outcoached. It was really smart how [the Rams] created one-on-ones. It was a little bit like what the Detroit Lions did…you create one-on-ones with the tackles, you double team Justin Jefferson inside and outside and everybody else is playing physical man coverage.”
Orlovsky went on to explain how the Rams had answers for the Vikings condensed wide receiver splits and play-actions under center with the cornerback blitz.
“Kevin O’Connell came from where? The Los Angeles Rams. He’s going to use very similar protections. Sean McVay went to defensive coordinator Chris Shula and said, ‘this is how you can take advantage of those protections and answer the questions that you present.’”
As good as O’Connell was this season for the Vikings — a very deserving Coach of the Year candidate with 14 wins — the next step has to be finding answers for opposing teams’ pressure.
The Vikings ran four screens and completed one for just one yard. They only had nine play-action drop-backs, three of which went for sacks and the others totaled 35 yards. When Darnold threw the ball between 0-9 yards, he went 14-for-16 with 137 yards but when he threw past 10 yards, he went 6-for-16 for 99 yards.
From a roster perspective, if O’Connell is going to continue to lean on the downfield passing game, the Vikings can’t have flaws up front. They couldn’t do anything about Christian Darrisaw’s injury but the interior line included a left guard who had never started before, a center who has a long history of below average PFF scores when left alone in pass protection and a right guard who was a cheap free agent signing (and switched sides). O’Connell acknowledged after the game that they will be looking to invest more on the interior of the line in the offseason.
Also, while the Vikings ran the ball well in terms of yards per carry over the last two weeks, it was not a consistent weapon for them to lean on. No matter who’s playing quarterback, finishing 28th in rushing EPA every year is going to hold them back from becoming an elite offense.
On the defensive side, Stafford went 10-for-16 with 156 yards vs blitz, including 9-for-12 with 114 yards throwing in the middle of the field. Those were two things that he did effectively in the first matchup and the Vikings weren’t able to change the results with similar strategies.
As terrific as Jonathan Greenard was against the Rams and all season long, he was too often the only consistent pressure creator on the front four. The Vikings defense has been built with run stuffers in the middle and it became clear against the Rams that you can only go so far rushing the passer without DTs who can get after quarterbacks.
The Vikings corners not named Byron Murphy Jr. also graded 49.7 and 53.1 (out of 100) by PFF against the Rams. As the season wore on, opponents found ways to attack the defensive backs with success and the Rams followed the same patterns as teams like Seattle, Atlanta and Detroit. They ranked 16th by PFF grade as a team but often relied on intercepting passes to even out the issues. When Stafford was safe with the ball, the Vikings defense struggled to consistently stop the passing game.
With changes coming in the secondary, the Vikings have to consider that patchwork secondaries are going to have limitations. Whether that means big investments in free agency or schematic changes to reduce the number of blitzes, something has to change against quality offenses.
The bottom line is that the Rams had every answer for the Vikings’ weaknesses and Minnesota’s season ended because of it. As they go into the offseason, they can’t simply look at their 14 wins and say that one bad game caused it all to go sideways. They need to look closely at the ways the Rams beat them as an outline for the offseason, both in coaching and roster construction.