NFC Playoff Picture: Vikings Fall to No. 3 Seed After Losing in Green Bay

The 49ers survived a scare against the Raiders and jumped up to the second seed thanks to Minnesota's loss.

The Vikings' 41-17 loss to the Packers on Sunday was another sloppy, concerning performance from a team that is somehow 12-4 with a -19 point differential this season.

It also had real consequences in the playoff picture.

With the Vikings losing and the 49ers rallying from a ten-point deficit to beat the Raiders in overtime, Minnesota is no longer second in the NFC. The 49ers — who have won nine games in a row after starting 3-4 — have passed the Vikings for the No. 2 seed thanks to a conference record tiebreaker. San Francisco is 9-2 against NFC opponents; the Vikings are 7-4.

There's still one week to play. But the 49ers' Week 18 opponent is the 4-12 Arizona Cardinals, who have lost six in a row, have the fourth-worst point differential in the NFL, and used a fourth different starting quarterback — former Vikings practice squad member David Blough — on Sunday. Anything is possible, but one would imagine the 49ers will have no difficulty extending their winning streak and the Cardinals' losing streak next weekend.

The only way the Vikings would return to the No. 2 seed is with a win over the Bears and a shocking Cardinals upset over the 49ers.

Realistically, the Vikings are now very likely to enter the playoffs as the No. 3 seed. That would mean hosting the Giants in the wild card round just three weeks after beating them 27-24 at U.S. Bank Stadium on Christmas Eve. From a short-term perspective, you could actually argue that being the third seed and facing the Giants is preferable to being the second seed and playing either the Packers, Seahawks, or Lions.

But dropping behind the 49ers means that if both teams win their first playoff game, the Vikings would have to travel to the Bay Area to play at Levi's Stadium in the divisional round. That hurts.

The Vikings aren't focused on that right now. They have one more regular season game to play, and they know they'll be hosting a playoff game after that. Worrying about the divisional round would be getting ahead of themselves. They know they have a lot to work on after another lopsided defeat, so that's the priority right now.

"Regardless (of seeding), at this point, knowing we're going to get the opportunity to host a playoff game, we've earned that right," Kevin O'Connell said. "But now we've got to make sure we look at ourselves and find every opportunity to improve as a football team. ... We really need to focus on just having a good week of prep for the Chicago Bears this week, regardless of how we try to go about that game and who we play and who we don't play."

It's far from a guarantee that being the third seed means the Vikings will be heading west to face the 49ers in the divisional round. First, O'Connell's team would need to worry about beating the Giants again. There's also the interesting possibility that the suddenly red-hot Packers beat the Lions next week to get the seventh seed and then flip the script on the 49ers by upsetting them in the wild card round. With Aaron Rodgers at QB, who knows? 

The 49ers also still have a chance to be the No. 1 seed in the conference if the Eagles lose again in Week 18.

Here's the full NFC playoff picture heading into Week 18:

The Packers are in as the seventh seed with a win over the Lions, the Seahawks are in with a win and a Packers loss, and the Lions are in with a win and a Seahawks loss.

The Vikings' loss eliminated them from contention for the No. 1 seed in the conference. The Eagles losing to the Saints earlier on Sunday meant Minnesota would've remained in that race with a win. 

The Eagles can clinch the top seed with a win next week over the Giants, who won't have any seeding to play for. An Eagles loss would open the door for the 49ers to take the 1 seed with a win. If both the Eagles and 49ers lose, which would be shocking, the Cowboys would be the 1 seed with a win over the eliminated Commanders.

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