NFC playoff picture: Vikings in a good spot, but catching Lions will be tough

Detroit just continues to find ways to win games.

Nov 10, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Detroit Lions place kicker Jake Bates (39) celebrates after kicking a field goal with time expiring to give the Lions a win over the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

With eight weeks left in the NFL season, the Vikings are positioned nicely to make the playoffs, but their margin for error is rather small when it comes to their hopes of catching the Lions and winning the NFC North.

At 7-2, the Vikings remain one game behind the 8-1 Lions, who have won seven games in a row after coming back from a 23-7 halftime deficit in Houston on Sunday night and winning 26-23. Detroit looks like the best team in the NFL at the moment and has a very clear path to get to 11-1 over the next three weeks.

First, here's a look at how the NFC playoff picture stands ahead of the Rams-Dolphins game on Monday Night Football. The Vikings are now the top wild card team due to Washington's one-point loss to the Steelers.

NFC playoff picture through Week 10 (pre-MNF) / NFL GSIS

If the Vikings are going to improve their playoff seed, they'll have to catch the Lions, who escaped Minnesota with a critical 31-29 victory in Week 7.

For a while on Sunday night, it looked like Dan Campbell's team was going to finally lose a game, but they overcame five Jared Goff interceptions, held the Texans scoreless in the second half, and won on a walkoff Jake Bates field goal. It should also be noted that the Lions benefited from a pretty blatant missed call by the officials in the final minutes.

NBC Rules Analyst Terry McAulay: "He's playing through the back before the ball is tipped by his teammate... It should've been a foul for Defensive Pass Interference."

Instead, it was ruled 4th down, & the Texans missed a 58-yard field goal with under 2 minutes left. #NFL #SNF pic.twitter.com/cwEgPF7Hyq

— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) November 11, 2024

It's tough to see Detroit losing any of its next three games: vs. JAX (2-8), at IND (4-6), vs. CHI (4-5). That makes it key for the Vikings to keep winning and remain one game back. Minnesota's next three games are at TEN (2-7), at CHI (4-5), and vs. ARI (6-4).

The Lions' schedule gets tougher in December, but the Vikings' does too. Assuming Detroit keeps playing like this, it'll be difficult for the Vikings to remain within one game in the standings entering their Week 18 rematch in Detroit.

After Week 10, FTN Fantasy's DVOA metrics give the Vikings an 88.6 percent chance of making the playoffs but just a 9.2 percent chance of winning their division.

With that said, there's still quite a bit of football to be played — and a lot can change in any given weekend.