NFC Playoff Picture: Vikings Jump Washington For No. 7 Seed Heading Into Week 16

The Vikings are in the playoff field as of now, but two tough games will determine if they stay there.

After all of the ups and downs and twists and turns of their season, the Minnesota Vikings would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

Of course, it doesn't. The Vikings still have three games to play, starting with a tough matchup at home against the Rams on Sunday and then a trip to Lambeau to play the Packers the following week.

But they're in the field right now as the No. 7 seed, which means they control their own destiny. Win out, and they're in. Go 2-1, and you need some help. Drop the next two games and it's over.

Philadelphia beating Washington on Tuesday night pushed the Vikings into the playoff field because they own a common games tiebreaker over the Eagles in addition to their conference record tiebreaker over the Saints. Those are their two primary competitors for the final playoff spot as we head into the season's final three weeks.

Here are the standings right now.

The other game on Tuesday night was the Rams taking care of business against the Seahawks, which means the Vikings would have to win out and the Rams would have to lose out in order for Minnesota to pass them. That seems rather unlikely.

The big blow for the Vikings this weekend was the Saints upsetting the Buccaneers for a second time, shutting them out 9-0. That puts the Saints in a great spot with a fairly easy remaining schedule.

Let's take a look at the remaining schedule for the teams seeded 6 through 10 in the NFC at the moment.

• 49ers (8-6): at Titans, vs. Texans, at Rams
• Vikings (7-7): vs. Rams, at Packers, vs. Bears
• Eagles (7-7): vs. Giants, at Washington, vs. Cowboys
• Saints (7-7): vs. Dolphins, vs. Panthers, at Falcons
• Washington (6-8): at Cowboys, vs. Eagles, at Giants

FiveThirtyEight gives the 49ers an 81 percent chance to make the playoffs. Even if they only beat the Texans and finish 9-8, they have head-to-head tiebreakers over the Eagles and Vikings. Because of schedule strength and tiebreakers, the Saints have the best odds out of the remaining teams at 45 percent. The Eagles are at 36 percent, while the Vikings — despite controlling their own destiny — are at 29 percent to get into the postseason.

Beat the Rams, and the Vikings' odds go up to 50 percent. With a loss, they drop to 12 percent and that Packers game at Lambeau Field — which will almost certainly still have home-field implications for Green Bay — becomes a must-win. That makes Sunday's game against the Rams another massive one for Minnesota.

If the Vikings only go 2-1 down the stretch, they'll need some help. They would need the Eagles to not win out, which looks somewhat possible given their schedule and the fact that they've won four of their last five. They'd need Washington to not win out (only one of those two is possible because the Eagles and Washington play each other again). 

They'd also need the Saints not to win out — but there's more. If the Vikings' only loss comes in Green Bay and the Saints' only loss is next Sunday against the red-hot Dolphins, New Orleans would win the tiebreaker. The teams would have the same conference record (7-5), the same record in common games (3-2), and the Saints would win the tiebreaker on strength of victory. A win over the Packers and two wins over the Bucs will do that.

See how the path for the Vikings is a tricky one? That's why they're only at 29 percent right now. Losing to the Lions (and all of those other winnable ones: Bengals, Cardinals, Cowboys, Ravens, etc.) was so, so damaging.

Winning out would get it done for the Vikings, but that means beating a 10-4 Rams team with some of the best advanced metrics in the NFL and then finishing off a sweep of the Packers, who have the best record in the league. Realistically, they need to split those games, beat the Bears in the season finale (not a sure thing), have all three of New Orleans, Philly, and Washington go 2-1 or worse, and have New Orleans lose to either Carolina or Atlanta.

It's tough, but it's definitely possible.

For the Vikings, it starts with defending their home turf and finding a way to beat the Rams next week.

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