NFC playoff picture: Vikings two wins away from division title, No. 1 seed

The Vikings control their own destiny, but they've got a difficult path over the final two weeks.

Dec 22, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) celebrates after catching a touchdown pass against the Seattle Seahawks during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

The Vikings are two victories away from winning the NFC North and securing the coveted No. 1 seed in the conference, which comes with a first-round bye and home-field advantage over the next two rounds. Minnesota's thrilling win over the Seahawks on Sunday — combined with the Eagles' dramatic loss to the Commanders earlier in the day — was huge for their chances of finishing the regular season atop the NFC, but there's still plenty of difficult work to be done.

It's now a two-team tie for the best record in the conference. The Lions and Vikings are both 13-2, while the Eagles are one game back at 12-3. Here's what the playoff picture looks like in the NFC with two weeks (and primetime Week 16 games involving the Buccaneers and Packers) left to play.

NFC playoff picture / NFL GSIS

The simplest path for the Vikings is to win their next two games, which are at home against the Packers next week and in Detroit against the Lions in Week 18. If they do that, which would mean ending the regular season on a ten-game winning streak, they'll be the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. It's not an easy task by any means, but it's straightforward.

If the Vikings lose to the Packers next week, the Lions would be able to clinch the division with a win over the 6-9 49ers. Even if the Vikings won the following week and both teams finished 14-3, the Lions would win the tiebreaker with a 5-1 record in the division (the Vikings would be 4-2).

As for the No. 1 seed, the Eagles would be eliminated from that race if the Vikings or Lions win next week. Philadelphia needs to win out (against the Cowboys and Giants at home), have the Lions go 0-2, and have the Vikings go 1-1 (which requires them beating Detroit in Week 18). In that scenario, the Eagles would win the tiebreaker at 14-3 over the Vikings due to common games, because they beat the Packers and the Vikings would have lost to the Packers next week.

To sum it up: The Vikings can win the NFC North and claim the No. 1 seed if they win out. They can lose to the Packers next week and still be alive in the division if the Lions also lose to the 49ers, but they would then be the No. 2 seed if the Eagles win out.

One more Packers loss or Vikings win would clinch at least the No. 5 seed for the Vikings.

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