NFC Standings, Playoff Picture: Eagles' Loss Helps Vikings' Pursuit of No. 1 Seed
The Eagles' undefeated season came to an end on Monday night in a home loss to Taylor Heinicke and the Commanders. That means the 8-1 Vikings are now tied for the best record in the NFL.
Because they lost to the Eagles in Week 2, the Vikings still don't control their own destiny in their pursuit of the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the accompanying first-round bye in the postseason. But with both teams having eight games left, the Vikings have a chance. Minnesota's odds of jumping past the Eagles for the 1 seed improved this weekend.
Per Football Outsiders, the Eagles have a 68.4 percent chance to be the 1 seed when the regular season ends. The Vikings are up to 14.1 percent, with their next opponent — the 6-3 Cowboys — just behind them at 12.5 percent. The 7-2 Giants are also still in the mix, but just like the Vikings, they have seven wins by eight points or fewer. That formula might be even less sustainable for a team with Daniel Jones at quarterback than it is for a team led by Kirk Cousins, who has mostly played quite well of late and benefits greatly from Justin Jefferson's presence.
FO gives the Vikings a 56.2 percent chance to be the No. 2 seed. Their closest competitors in that race are the 6-4 Seahawks, 5-4 49ers, and 5-5 Buccaneers, because the second and third-place teams in the NFC seed will be wild cards for seeding purposes. However, it's important to note that Football Outsiders' percentages are low on the Vikings because their DVOA metric is low on the Vikings, ranking them as the 17th-best team in the NFL.
FiveThirtyEight is much more optimistic about the Vikings, with their ELO formula ranking them as the league's fifth-best team (behind the Cowboys and Eagles in the NFC). Here's how they view the race for the 1 seed:
- Eagles: 41 percent
- Vikings: 40 percent
- Cowboys: 11 percent
- Giants: 5 percent
That's essentially a toss up between the Eagles and Vikings, with the other two NFC East teams lurking.
Here's a look at the conference standings heading into Week 11:
The Vikings have a huge game on Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium against the Cowboys. That'll be another tough test for Kevin O'Connell's team, especially coming off an emotional rollercoaster of a win. The Eagles go on the road in Week 11 to face the 4-5-1 Colts, who won their first game under interim coach Jeff Saturday.
The remaining schedules for the Vikings, Eagles, and Cowboys are mostly comparable in difficulty. Dallas, despite a tough loss to the Packers on Sunday, can help itself greatly by beating the Vikings and Eagles.
Vikings remaining schedule
- vs. DAL (6-3)
- vs. NE (5-4)
- vs. NYJ (6-3)
- at DET (3-6)
- vs. IND (4-5-1)
- vs. NYG (7-2)
- at GB (4-6)
- at CHI (3-7)
- Total record of remaining opponents: 38-36-1
Eagles remaining schedule
- at IND (4-5-1)
- vs. GB (4-6)
- vs. TEN (6-3)
- at NYG (7-2)
- at CHI (3-7)
- at DAL (6-3)
- vs. NO (3-7)
- vs. NYG (7-2)
- Total record of remaining opponents: 40-35-1
Cowboys remaining schedule
- at MIN (8-1)
- vs. NYG (7-2)
- vs. IND (4-5-1)
- vs. HOU (1-7-1)
- at JAX (3-7)
- vs. PHI (8-1)
- at TEN (6-3)
- at WAS (5-5)
- Total record of remaining opponents: 42-31-2
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