NFL analysts split on how Vikings should handle major offseason QB decision

With Sam Darnold playing well, and rookie J.J. McCarthy sitting in the wings, the future of the Vikings QB position is a major question with no easy answer.

Nov 24, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) enters the field before the game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images / Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images

Inside TCO Performance Center in Eagan, Minn., the Vikings are certainly focusing on the here-and-now in the midst of a 10-2 season that has them a game behind the Detroit Lions for first place in the NFC North, and the conference at large.

A major part of that success has hinged upon the successful play of quarterback Sam Darnold, which makes it strange his future beyond this year is unknown and a major question mark going into the offseason — one that has analysts split.

The expectation this last offseason and into the preseason was that Darnold would play for the first handful of weeks before likely handing over the keys to the Vikings offense to rookie J.J. McCarthy. Well, when the No. 10 overall pick in this year's NFL draft suffered a season-ending knee injury, those plans went out the window.

In the wake of what would normally be devastating news, Darnold has handled the starting quarterback job in Kevin O'Connell's offense masterfully. Now, many pundits across the league are reconsidering their preseason mindset of the Vikings handing over the keys to McCarthy.

"Sam Darnold's got them at 10-2, he's playing really well, but you've got J.J. McCarthy. Obviously the injury took him off their plans for this year. But going into the future, 'Gosh do we (franchise) tag and keep Sam Darnold? Do we tag-and-trade Sam Darnold? Do we just let Sam Darnold walk and just give J.J. the ball right now?'" NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah said on the What The Football podcast on Tuesday.

"I looked up the numbers and Sam's season, there's actually a lot of similarities — not the win-loss record — but statistically to Alex Smith in the (Patrick) Mahomes redshirt year. Very similar to Alex Smith and still, even though they were a winning team and he was at 67% completions and 4,000 yards around there for Alex Smith, they just said, 'Well, we know what we have in Mahomes, and he can take this offense to another gear. So, thank you Alex, but we're going to give this over to Mahomes in Year 2,'" Jeremiah continued. "What do the Minnesota Vikings do next year?

"That's going to be a fascinating one."

Smith, who led the Kansas City Chiefs to a 9-6 record while throwing for 4,042 yards, 26 touchdowns and just five interceptions in Mahomes' rookie season, was traded the following year to Washington. The Chiefs haven't looked back on that decision, having appeared in four of the next six Super Bowls, winning three.

Smith himself weighed in on the situation, saying on ESPN's Sunday NFL Countdown that it would be a "big mistake" if the Vikings haven't already offered Darnold a contract extension. Smith argued that McCarthy's potential, which shined in his lone preseason appearance, is just that — potential.

"You've got a guy right now who has a lot of good football left in him. I'd make every effort to sign this guy long term," Smith said.

But therein lies the problem for the Vikings. With how well Darnold has been playing, his price tag keeps rising. According to Over The Cap, the Vikings will have around $76.4 million in available cap space to use this offseason. If they decide to retain Darnold, that could take up a significant chunk of that cap space, limiting their ability to add pieces to a roster that could certainly use help in some spots.

"I'll tell you this, every game he keeps winning like this, the price is going up my friend. $40 million. $45 million. 'Oh we're going to the playoffs? Oh we won a playoff game.' $50 million. He knows it," former Vikings lineman Jeremiah Sirles said on a recent episode of the Purple Insider podcast.

"I also think he wants to win for the Vikings for giving him a shot," Sirles continued. "So there's also a piece in this where he's going, 'Man I was promised a payday when I was drafted third overall. I was promised to be the guy. Play four years, go get my contract, make the money.' Didn't work out, but it's right there on the horizon for him. Anyone that's played in this league, you want to make as much money as fast as you can."

It's a major question with an easy answer nowhere to be found. The benefit of moving on is being able to stack up the roster around a promising rookie quarterback for the next few years. But if McCarthy doesn't work out, then the Vikings have hitched their wagon to a dud while allowing Darnold to potentially go thrive elsewhere. If you bring Darnold back, you might not know what you could have had in McCarthy starting right away in Year 2, and for a much lower price tag.

"You have a team that's winning. The veterans love him. ... I hope J.J. is good, but I don't know if he's good," Jeremiah said. "That comes down, to me, the conviction. Andy Reid had that conviction that Mahomes was a totally different animal. We'll find out, I guess, in the offseason if Kevin O'Connell feels like J.J. McCarthy is capable of tapping into a gear that Sam doesn't have."

"This Sam Darnold thing, if it keeps going the way it's going, I'm not letting him just walk out the door just because I drafted a guy," said John Middlekauff, co-host of the Colin Cowherd Podcast.

Cowherd agreed with Middlekauff's statement noting that Darnold, after a rough start to his career, has had "elite coaching" in his last two stops (San Francisco and Minnesota), which puts him in a better spot in his current stage.

"This is how much I've pivoted, when he gets the ball late — between the coaching, Sam and Justin Jefferson — I'm like 'Yeah, he's going to get them into field-goal position,'" Cowherd said.

"What I found to be very interesting, is that as soon as they signed Darnold, I spent the whole offseason just asking anyone who I could find who might have a connection to Sam Darnold — from Rich Gannon for a story I did, to people in the league that I know, and even (The Athletic's) Mike Sando, who does that piece with all the NFL executives. The thing that kept coming back was, No. 1, that (Kevin O'Connell) actually believed this was possible," Matthew Coller told Sirles on the Purple Insider podcast. "It wasn't just a, 'I'm going to go out and say it.' People who talked to him — he talked to Rich Gannon, after they signed him, about, 'How can I make this guy you, as somebody who turns around their career?' I talked to people who were in Carolina when he was there. What kept coming up is, 'Yeah we all kind of think he can do this.' It wasn't, 'Yeah guys, don't even throw that out.'"

"The fact that people thought he could do it. The fact that he beat out Trey Lance in San Francisco. The fact that he was good in 2022 and now the sample size is getting bigger and bigger. It does make you think, this is who he really is," Coller continued. "That other player was a guy who was young and in a very bad position. This is the real quarterback. And that certainly does complicate things for their future but kind of in the best way possible."