What if the Vikings Don't Trade Up For a Quarterback?

There's a scenario where the Vikings stay put and make two picks in the first round.

Dec 24, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah / Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Two weeks ago, the Vikings made a fascinating trade with the Texans that landed them another first-round pick in this year's draft for the price of a second-rounder in each of the next two drafts. Immediately, speculation began about the possibility — or perhaps inevitability — of Minnesota packaging the No. 11 and 23 picks in a deal to move up into the top five for a quarterback in April.

That still feels like the most likely outcome. After letting Kirk Cousins walk in free agency, this appears to be the time for the Vikings to be aggressive in going to get the quarterback that they want. Can they get all the way up into the top three for Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels? Short of that, a move up to No. 4 or No. 5 for J.J. McCarthy — who is seemingly a great fit for Kevin O'Connell's offense — makes all kinds of sense.

But what if the Vikings don't trade up? Maybe the price winds up being too much to stomach. Maybe Minnesota's preferred quarterback options come off the board quicker than anticipated — or fall to them at 11 or 23. Whatever the case may be, there are feasible scenarios in which the Vikings stay put and make multiple picks in the first round of this draft.

"What that trade really allowed us to do was have flexibility to do a lot of things," O'Connell said at the NFL Owner's Meetings in Orlando this week. "Any time you have two first-round picks in a draft, that's a positive."

The Vikings will be drafting one of the top six or seven quarterbacks this year, there's no question about that. They're not going to go into the season with just Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall in their QB room. But whether or not they feel inclined to move up will all depend on their evaluations of this year's quarterback class. Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy almost certainly won't be available at 11. But what if they really like Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix or even Spencer Rattler? If that's the case, they could take one of the top defensive players in this draft at 11 and then add a quarterback with the 23rd pick.

As O'Connell mentioned, the top of this draft features some outstanding wide receivers and offensive tackles, which are two position groups where the Vikings are set.

"Looking at this draft from a standpoint of the quarterback depth, of the defensive depth — we did add a receiver (Jordan Addison) who we feel really good about pairing with Justin Jefferson last year," O'Connell said. "We feel really strongly about our offensive skill group. There happens to be some really good receivers in this draft. We feel good about our (offensive) tackle position, for example. That happens to be a really good position in the draft (this year). So any time that happens, and you can be picking at 11 and 23, great, you've got a chance for some real positions of value to your team to come to you."

Hypothetically, let's say the Vikings have a rosy evaluation of Penix that places him fairly close to the Maye/Daniels/McCarthy tier. They could potentially take a standout defensive player like Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell or Texas DT Byron Murphy II with the 11th pick and then select Penix at 23. That would give them two players on five-year rookie contracts while also allowing them to keep all of their future first-round picks — including a 2025 first that could be pretty high — and other draft assets. Could that be a better outcome than packaging 11, 23, and a future pick to move up to 3 or 4?

In the end, of course, it all comes down to how the Vikings feel about the various quarterbacks in this class and whether or not they get that decision right. Moving up involves risk, but if the quarterback you draft pans out, it's completely worth it. Staying put at 11 and 23 has its potential benefits, but if the Vikings take someone like Penix and he doesn't succeed, they'll be endlessly second-guessed for not going to get one of the perceived top four options.

There are all kinds of scenarios here, which is why the Vikings have cited "flexibility" as the reason for acquiring a second first-rounder. It gives them the option to stay put, but it also gives them a juicier package to dangle in trade discussions. That additional first-rounder this year — in what is seen as a strong draft — may have more immediate value than a future first.

"The quarterback landscape, what has become the standard of moving up, there's examples of what that looks like," O'Connell said. "I do think there's value of two first-round picks, not only in the same draft but in this draft, at least the way I'm evaluating the draft. We feel like people are going to be looking at two first-round picks in this draft as something that may be of greater value than maybe your standard one first-round (pick) a year, however many that takes to go ahead and get a trade like what needs to happen to get up there done."

You still get the sense that the Vikings are probably going to do what it takes to trade up into the top five for Maye or Daniels or McCarthy. But depending on how things play out, there's also a world where that doesn't happen.

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