NFL Power Rankings, Wild Card Round: Do the Vikings Have a Super Bowl Ceiling?
One of the strangest, most entertaining teams of all time is headed to the playoffs.
The Vikings went 13-4 this year under new head coach Kevin O'Connell, who changed the team's culture for the better. They won the NFC North. They're the No. 3 seed in the conference and will open up the postseason by hosting the 9-7-1 Giants on Sunday. Normally, that would be the resume of a team that isn't quite a Super Bowl favorite, but has a respectable chance to make a deep run.
What complicates things is that the Vikings are no ordinary 13-4 team. They had an unprecedented 11-0 record in one-score games, trailed by 33 or more points on three separate occasions (winning one of them), and ended the year with a point differential of minus-three. They're 27th in DVOA and their defense allowed more yards than every team except the Lions.
Unsurprisingly, that means not many people are taking the Vikings seriously as threats to even reach the NFC championship game. They're just 2.5-point home favorites this weekend against the Giants and have 33-to-1 odds to win it all — ninth-best among the 14-team field.
And yet, who knows what could happen? There's never been a team like this before. The Vikings have the best wide receiver in football, a quarterback who has been both tough and clutch all year, a good head coach and an elite left tackle, among other offensive weapons. Defensively, they have star talent at all three levels and have come up with big plays all year, from takeaways to key stops on third down and in the red zone.
If the Vikings can finally put everything together a few times, who's to say what this team's ceiling might be? Yes, they'd be major underdogs against the 49ers or Eagles or Cowboys, but if they can just hang around with those teams, they'll feel calm and confident in any late-game, one-score situations because they've been there all year.
I have no idea how this Vikings season will end, but I do know it's probably going to be chaotic.
Let's check in on the pre-playoff power rankings to see what various analysts think of the Vikings' chances.
MMQB Staff, SI.com: No. 8
The Vikings received votes ranking from 6th to 15th from SI's eight-person panel, tied with the Giants for the widest range of any playoff team.
The Vikings have been one of the most polarizing teams in the league all year, with their 13–4 record and negative point differential. Our panelists mostly agreed this was a pretty good team, a tier below the true contenders but comfortably ahead of the teams hovering around .500.
Bo Wulf, The Athletic: No. 8
Prepare yourself for the inevitability of the Vikings’ playoff run. They’re going to beat the Giants at home Sunday by one point when Greg Joseph nails a 62-yarder as time expires. Then they’re going to travel to San Francisco and win by four points when Brandon Aiyuk fumbles the ball out of the back of the end zone when trying to stretch to the goal line for the game-winning touchdown. Then they’re going to beat the Cowboys in the NFC Championship Game when Dak Prescott kneels at the 5-yard line to set up the game-winning field goal, only to realize Mike McCarthy forgot the team had run out of timeouts. Then they’re going to lose in the Super Bowl by 45 points.
Dan Hanzus, NFL.com: No. 10
All the hand-wringing about the Vikings can officially cease. You can take them seriously the way you would most 13-4 division winners ... or you can disregard their success as the product of a fluke regular season. The truth is that none of it matters anymore. The postseason has a way of shaking out the pretenders from the contenders, and it all starts for Minnesota on Sunday against the Giants. The Vikings could be one-and-done disappointments, or they could deliver elite playoff drama across multiple rounds. They're a hard team to get a handle on, which makes them a great team to have around. Our own version of a Knives Out Mystery.
Austin Gayle, The Ringer: No. 9
The Vikings defense might cost the team a chance at a playoff run. Since their Week 1 blowout of the Packers, the Vikings have allowed fewer than 22 points to only three teams: Miami, Washington, and Chicago. The opposing quarterbacks in those three games were Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater for Miami, Taylor Heinicke for Washington, and Nathan Peterman and Tim Boyle for the Bears. (They gave up 24 points to the Daniel Jones–led Giants when they played their eventual wild-card opponent in Week 16.) Minnesota finished the season 29th in points allowed and 31st in yards allowed. Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson have been unbelievably good late in so many one-possession games this season, but they can’t keep pace with the best of the conference with the state of their defense.
Frank Schwab, Yahoo! Sports: No. 7
The Vikings have to feel good about getting the Giants in the wild-card round. They're not guaranteed to win or anything, but that matchup isn't bad for them.
Bleacher Report Staff: No. 7
There isn't a harder team to figure out in this year's playoffs than the Minnesota Vikings. On one hand, the Vikings are a 13-win division champion. Those 13 wins tied for the franchise's most since their magical 15-1 campaign in 1998. Minnesota set an NFL record this year with 11 one-score victories and fields the league's seventh-ranked offense in yards and eighth-ranked offense in points. On the other hand, the Vikings were blasted in blowout losses to the Packers, Cowboys and Eagles. Only the Detroit Lions were worse defensively in terms of yards allowed entering Week 18, and only three teams allowed more points.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: No. 7
They bounced back from that horrible showing at Lambeau last week to beat up the Bears. The defense will be what decides if they can make a run in the playoffs.
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: No. 6 (Up 2 spots)
The Vikings needed until Week 18 against a shell of a Bears team to get their first blowout victory since Week 1. They have overcome a terrible scoring defense with the required offensive points, going 11-0 in one-possession games. They're battle-tested in the first season under offensive-minded Kevin O'Connell, but it doesn't bode well that the Eagles and Cowboys were among the teams that routed them. The Vikings are volatile right from the wild-card round.
Mike Florio, PFT: No. 6
They’ll beat the Giants by 2-4 points, or lose by 20-40.
Nate Davis, USA Today: No. 9
Has a 13-win team ever been more lightly regarded heading into postseason? Arguably not ... though no 13-win team has ever been outscored over the course of a season, either.
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