PFF Projects Details of a T.J. Hockenson Contract Extension

A Hockenson extension before Week 1 still feels likely. What could the terms be?

The Vikings signing tight end T.J. Hockenson to a contract extension before the 2023 season begins still feels likely, despite the lack of any buzz about progress thus far. Hockenson is a key player in Kevin O'Connell's offense as both receiver and blocker. His production in the second half of last season, after being acquired in a trade with the Lions, proved that much. He's a great fit alongside Justin Jefferson.

The hold-up, presumably, is just a standard negotiating process. Hockenson's camp has terms in their mind that they're looking for, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and the Vikings have a price point that they want, and someone — or both sides — will eventually have to give a little if a deal is going to get done.

Adding to the intrigue with this situation is that Hockenson's next contract is meaningful not just for him, but for the entire tight end market. It's one that has lagged behind "premium" positions like wide receiver and offensive tackle; Darren Waller, at $17 million per year, is the only TE with an AAV greater than $15 million. As a Pro Bowl tight end in the prime of his career at 26 years old, Hockenson may be looking to reset the market at his position.

What's a realistic solution that makes both sides happy? Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus has a contract projection for Hockenson that looks like it could work: Four years, $64 million ($16 million per year), $37.5 million total guaranteed (not including $9.329 million fifth-year option).

In that scenario, Hockenson would be under contract for the next five years (through his age-30 season) and would slot in behind only Waller in AAV.

Here's Spielberger's analysis:

With seemingly the entire football world fixated on the running back market's woes, and understandably so, the consistently underwhelming and extraordinarily team-friendly tight end market has once again flown under the radar. The position carries with it a career shelf life that rivals the attrition at running back, and teams have leveraged this reality for years against players who contribute as much in the passing game as many of the top No. 2 wide receivers in the NFL while also maintaining responsibilities as blockers. Hockenson is no exception, and this contract should be viewed as a very important deal at the position.

Has Hockenson lived up to his No. 8 overall draft pick billing? Arguably no. Clearly, the new Detroit Lions brass didn’t necessarily think so, exercising his fifth-year option last season before trading him to the division-rival Minnesota Vikings. However, is he a top talent at the position who just turned 26 years old coming off the best stretch of his NFL career, with the ability to put up massive stat lines on any given Sunday? Yes.

Hockenson ranked second among tight ends in regular-season targets after the trade deadline (60), and then quarterback Kirk Cousins looked his way 10 times in a playoff loss to the New York Giants, during which Hockenson racked up 10 receptions for 129 yards. The former Iowa Hawkeye has put up three straight season-long receiving grades above 73.0 on at least 60 receptions. Over that span, he ranks fifth in yards after the catch (945), third in contested catches (31), seventh in 15-plus-yard receptions (43) and sixth in forced missed tackles (23).

If Hockenson wants to reset the market at $18 million per year, that might be a little too rich for the Vikings. But a $14 million AAV, which would tie him for fifth-highest among TEs, isn't going to get it done. Meeting in the middle makes sense.

We'll see if the Vikings and Hockenson's camp eventually find an agreement.

Minnesota currently has around $10 million in cap space after signing Danielle Hunter to a new deal, with extensions for Hockenson and Jefferson perhaps on the way.

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