Playoff model predicts Vikings finish with third-best record in NFC

If this winds up being the case, the three lowest seeds in the NFC are all highly capable of winning on Wild Card Weekend.

Nov 17, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) breaks the tackle of Tennessee Titans cornerback Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (29) during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Maybe Joe Nelson, who predicted the Vikings to go 12-5 this season, really is a genius?

Yes, it is me, Joe Nelson, writing this article, but I can't help but notice how smart I look after making the bold prediction way back in early September. Here I am now, scanning the internet and finding myself digging into the latest playoff projections from The Athletic.

What do I find? I find that the company's playoff model results, which are based on 100,000 simulations for the rest of the season while also factoring in schedules and injuries, has the Vikings finishing 12-5.

That would be good for the third-best record in the NFC, trailing only the 14-3 Lions and the 13-4 Eagles. NFL wide, it would also trail the Chiefs (14-3) and Bills (13-4).

Right behind Minnesota are the Commanders and Packers, both projected to finish 11-6. The only other 10-win teams in the NFC via the model are the Falcons and Cardinals, both at 10-7.

If the model is correct, the four division winners and therefore the top four seeds in the NFC playoffs would be the Lions, Eagles, Cardinals and Falcons, with the Vikings entering the fray as the No. 5 seed. The Packers and Commanders would get in as the sixth and seventh seeds.

If that happens, the Vikings would hit the road on Wild Card Weekend to face Kyler Murray and the Cardinals in Arizona or old buddy Kirk Cousins and the Falcons in Atlanta.

One can start to do some storytelling from there.

Imagine that the Vikings beat Arizona or Altanta. They could realistically host a game in the Divisional Round because the 5-6-7 seeds in the NFC might be strong enough to all win on the road in the first round, which would set Minnesota up for a home game against the No. 6 seed while the No. 7 seed travels to Detroit in the second round.

Dream away, Minnesota. The model likes your chances...