Recent mock draft provides example of Vikings trading down from 24

What could it look like if the Vikings move out of the first round entirely this year?

Feb 25, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Minnesota Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah speaks during the NFL Scouting Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

About a month ago, I wrote that the Vikings trading down from 24 in this year's draft feels almost inevitable due to their lack of picks and the depth of this year's class at several positions of need. There are certain players who would be hard to pass up if they happen to fall to Minnesota's pick, but moving down continues to feel like the most likely outcome for GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and company.

What might that look like? A recent mock draft from PFF's Dalton Wasserman provides one example. In that mock, the Vikings trade the 24th pick to the Patriots for their second-round pick (No. 38) and third-round pick (No. 77). New England comes up to get an offensive tackle, while the Vikings turn one pick into two slightly less valuable ones.

By the Rich Hill trade value chart, pick 24 is worth 237 points and picks 38 and 77 are worth a combined 227 points. The Vikings may want to get an even better return (the Patriots also have the 69th overall pick in the third round), but that's at least in the ballpark of what's realistic.

You may be thinking that the last time Adofo-Mensah made a big trade down, it didn't go well. That's true. In 2022, the Vikings moved down from No. 12 (where, in hindsight, they could've taken Kyle Hamilton or Trent McDuffie) to No. 32 and drafted Lewis Cine, who was a major bust. But just because that draft flopped for the Vikings doesn't mean the process was inherently flawed. It all comes down to selecting the right players, which inherently involves a bit of luck.

Going back to the PFF example, let's take a look at how the draft could play out in that mock scenario. The Vikings could stay put at 24 and take someone like Oregon DT Derrick Harmon or Alabama G Tyler Booker. Or, using PFF's mock draft simulator, they could do something like this after the hypothetical trade with the Patriots:

• Round 2, Pick 38: Texas DT Alfred Collins
• Round 3, Pick 77: Kentucky CB Maxwell Hairston

They get a slightly lower-rated defensive tackle in Collins instead of Harmon, but in doing so, they also land a high-upside cornerback in Hairston. The Vikings could instead use one of those picks on an offensive lineman or a running back; the point is that you get two bites at the apple instead of one. They also have the 97th overall pick, which is the compensatory selection they're getting for Kirk Cousins' departure last offseason.

That's just one possible example of many theoretical trade-down scenarios. If you don't want the Vikings to go all the way down to 38, perhaps staying in the back end of the first round, just keep in mind that the pick you receive to do so gets weaker. If, say, the Bills want to come up from 30 to 24, the fair value (according to the chart) would be an early fourth-rounder and a late fifth-rounder.

Whether or not the Vikings choose to move down from 24 will all depend on which players are on the board and what kind of offers they receive from teams looking to move up. But in a year where they currently have the weakest collection of picks of any team in the league, trading back makes all kinds of sense.

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