Sam Darnold has played himself into Vikings' long-term QB conversation

Darnold is on pace to finish with the second most passing touchdowns in a single season in Vikings history.

Dec 8, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) celebrates his touchdown pass to wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) against the Atlanta Falcons during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

He's 13 games into his first season with the Vikings and Sam Darnold has thrown for 3,299 yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Oh, and the Vikings are 11-2 and playing like a team capable of going the distance.

Darnold is on pace to finish with 4,314 yards and 36 touchdowns. Only two quarterbacks in Vikings history (Daunte Culpepper in 2004 and Kirk Cousins in 2022) have passed for more yards in a single season and only one has thrown more than 36 touchdowns (Culpepper with 39 in 2004).

Clearly, Darnold has played himself into some difficult conversations.

Darnold was the third overall pick and he has a cannon for an arm and the mobility to extend plays like he did Sunday when he evaded pressure and fired on the run for a 52-yard touchdown to Justin Jefferson. How could the Vikings possibly look at what they have and let him get to free agency?

The easy answer is J.J. McCarthy.

Minnesota drafted McCarthy 10th overall with a plan to build around him and his rookie contract. The problem now is that Darnold has blown away expectations by so much that the idea of letting him go is wild.

Decision-makers at TCO Performance Center in Eagan have to be scratching their heads and considering a long-term play with Darnold. Cost is going to be a major part of the discussion.

Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer talked to anonymous executives about Darnold's potential price tag and one estimated that Darnold is in line for a three-year, $110 million contract with more than $40 million guaranteed. Another guessed that $40 million annually is what Darnold has earned himself in negotiations.

According to OverTheCap, the Vikings are estimated to have $76 million in cap space entering 2025 free agency. That's a lot of dough to spend on high-end free agents to shore up positional weaknesses while building around McCarthy.

It's also enough money to pay Darnold and take advantage of the chemistry he has with Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson while he enters the prime of his career. He is, in fact, still only 27 years old.

Another thought that has to be running through the minds of Vikings execs is if Kevin O'Connell is simply a quarterback whisperer. Darnold was a bust until he got to Minnesota. O'Connell was in charge when Kirk Cousins was having the best years of his career (look at him now in Atlanta), and it was O'Connell keeping the Vikings competitive after Cousins tore his Achilles and Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall were thrust under center.

If the Vikings believe McCarthy can do what Darnold is doing, then it's a no-brainer. The Vikings should let Darnold get paid in free agency while handing the keys to the franchise to McCarthy and using $76 million in cap space to build around him.

Minnesota could opt to franchise tag Darnold, but doing so would cost them around $41 million in 2025 and it might rub Darnold the wrong way and still burn a year of McCarthy's rookie contract.

Which way are the Vikings leaning? Perhaps the signing of quarterback Daniel Jones was a clue. Jones provides very little short-term value but by signing him in November the Vikings could have plans to re-sign him as McCarthy's backup in 2025.

There are a lot of factors to weigh and the only sure thing is that Darnold is going to get paid like a top-flight quarterback.