Sam Darnold ranks incredibly high in 'adjusted quarterback efficiency' metric

Darnold has been one of the best QBs in the NFL this season.

Dec 16, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) passes the ball against the Chicago Bears in the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Sam Darnold ranks 11th among quarterback in expected points added (EPA) per play this season. But that might not tell the whole story of how good he's been. A metric called "adjusted quarterback efficiency" from analyst Kevin Cole, which attempts to include a variety of other factors, has Darnold as the fourth-best QB in the NFL in 2024, trailing only Josh Allen, Jordan Love, and Lamar Jackson.

Cole's AQE makes "adjustments for expected EPA" on luck-influenced things like yards after the catch, drops, interceptions, defensive pass interference penalties, fumbles, strength of schedule, and weather. However it works, Darnold jumps ahead of Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, and Brock Purdy, among others, in this metric.

Adjusted quarterback efficiency (AQE) through Week 15 @Unexpected_Pts

- A clear top-3 tier forming: Josh Allen, Jordan Love, Lamar Jackson
- Jared Goff flying up the rankings, despite a big negative adjustment
- Jameis Winston and Bo Nix with the worst numbers last week pic.twitter.com/izUuIyLYLX

— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) December 18, 2024

No matter what traditional statistics or advanced metrics you use, the numbers support the idea that Darnold has been at least a top-ten quarterback this season, if not top-five.

Through 15 weeks, he's sixth in passing yards, fifth in passing touchdowns, fourth in passer rating, and fifth in yards per attempt. Darnold is ninth in adjusted net yards per attempt, which dings him a bit for sacks and interceptions. He's sixth in success rate and third in completion percentage over expected. He's seventh in PFF grade and fourth in big-time throw percentage.

Outside of raw EPA per play, it's difficult to find metrics where Darnold is outside of the top ten. Even though he's had some issues at times with sacks and picks (which aren't always a quarterback's fault), that's going to happen when you're pushing the ball downfield as much as he has. Darnold ranks fourth in the league in average depth of target, which makes his efficiency numbers even more impressive.

He isn't coming off his sharpest game on Monday night against the Bears, but it's hard to understand how well Darnold has played this season. He's been poised, accurate, and explosive in Kevin O'Connell's offense, and his play is a huge reason why the Vikings are sitting at 12-2.

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