The Athletic Makes Free Agency Predictions For Vikings Secondary
On Wednesday, Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic made predictions for the destinations of his list of the top 100 free agents in the NFL. The notable aspect of the list for Vikings fans has to do with Kapadia's predictions for the immediate future of Minnesota's secondary.
Three current Vikings made the list, all of whom are defensive backs. Safety Anthony Harris checks in at No. 19, with corners Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander at No. 33 and No. 65, respectively. Kapadia doesn't think any of them will be back with the Vikings next season.
He does think Harris and Waynes will remain teammates next season, as he predicts both of them to sign with the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders really struggled against the pass last year, finishing 30th in rate of explosive pass plays allowed and 30th in pass defense DVOA. Harris would form a strong safety tandem with 2019 first-rounder Johnathan Abram, while Waynes would be an upgrade from fellow free agent Daryl Worley.
Related: Evidence Suggests Anthony Harris Unlikely to Return to Vikings in Free Agency
As for Alexander, Kapadia predicts that the Vikings' slot corner will sign with the Jets.
If the Vikings do lose all three of Harris, Waynes, and Alexander – which is certainly a possibility – they will need to do plenty of re-loading in the secondary. It would likely mean spending several draft picks, including at least one in the first few rounds, on defensive backs. But the salary cap-troubled Vikings would also figure to look for low-cost options in free agency.
Kapadia has two players towards the back end of his top 100 signing deals with the Vikings this offseason: Bills cornerback Kevin Johnson and Panthers safety Tre Boston.
Johnson, who is No. 89 on the list, would make a lot sense for Minnesota. Drafted by the Texans five picks after Waynes in the first round in 2015, Johnson dealt with several injuries that caused him to only play in 19 games between 2016 and 2018. After being released by the Texans, he signed a one-year deal with the Bills prior to last season and was impressive in limited action as the No. 4 corner for Buffalo. Here's Kapadia's explanation of the match:
They’re expected to lose two or three corners this offseason. The Vikings don’t have a lot of cap space, but Johnson can give them a versatile option with upside. He played well on a one-year prove-it deal with the Bills last season.
At 6-foot-0, 190 pounds, Johnson can play both inside and outside. He'll be 28 next season and figures to be cheaper than either Waynes or Alexander. But there's upside there, as Johnson's PFF grade ranked 23rd out of 113 qualified corners in 2019 (albeit on only 400 snaps). The Vikings' best corner, Waynes, was 46th.
Meanwhile, Boston (No. 96 on Kapadia's list) could be a slightly cheaper replacement for Harris at safety without being too much of a drop-off in ability. Spotrac.com predicts that Boston will command $9-10 million annually, with Harris going for $13-14 million.
Boston is a six-year veteran who spent the first three years of his career with the Panthers and played for the Chargers and Cardinals before returning to the Panthers last season. He has 11 interceptions over the past three years, which is the same amount as Harrison Smith during that time frame. PFF graded Boston as the 13th-best safety last year. His 90.6 coverage grade was fourth, trailing only Harris, Denver's Justin Simmons, and Smith. Kapadia's reasoning:
If Minnesota loses Harris in free agency, it’ll need a replacement at free safety. Boston has been on three teams in the last three seasons. But he wins a starting job everywhere he goes and should be affordable to the cap-restricted Vikings.
The Vikings are reportedly interested in bringing back Andrew Sendejo. But if they want a younger option with far more upside, they could presumably clear enough cap space to make a run at signing Boston.
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