Three Keys to Victory for the Vikings Against the Texans in Week 4

The Vikings might have to win a shootout this weekend to get their first victory of the season.

The Vikings' young, banged-up defense has given up 102 points in three losses to teams quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and Ryan Tannehill so far this season. Life doesn't get any easier in Week 4. Down their top pass rusher (Danielle Hunter might miss the entire season with a neck injury), two of their top four linebackers, and two of their top five cornerbacks, the Vikings are headed to Houston to take on Deshaun Watson and what is still a solid group of skill-position players even without DeAndre Hopkins.

What that means is the Vikings might have to win a shootout if they're going to pick up their first victory of the season on Sunday. Both of these teams have offenses with plenty of firepower, and both have had struggles on defense.

Here are three keys to victory for the Vikings in Week 4:

1. Feed their new big three

For the past few years, the Vikings have had a big three of offensive weapons consisting of Dalvin Cook (when healthy), Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs. With Diggs heading to Buffalo this offseason, Cook and Thielen had been the only real playmaking threats for the first two weeks of the season. But in Week 3, a new face emerged. Rookie Justin Jefferson – who was drafted to replace Diggs – broke out with 175 receiving yards and a touchdown in the loss to the Titans. (For context, Diggs only reached 175 yards once during his five-year Vikings career, though he did also have 12 games between 119 and 173 yards).

With Jefferson now locked into a nearly full-time role, there's a new big three for Kirk Cousins and this offense. 

If the Vikings are going to win this game on the road against a potent Texans offense, they'll need to keep pace on the scoreboard. That means getting Cook – who went for a career-high 181 yards of his own last week – going early. The Texans have allowed an NFL-worst 188.3 rushing yards per game this year, meaning Cook will have a great chance for another huge performance. Getting him a ton of touches, both on the ground and as a receiver out of the backfield, should help the Vikings sustain drives and control the time of possession.

Running the ball, of course, won't be enough. Cousins and the Vikings will also need to hit some big plays against a solid but beatable Texans pass defense. Jefferson is unlikely to repeat his 175-yard day, but another 70-100 yards would be big for establishing that last week wasn't a fluke.

"That’s one of my main things that I’m working on, just making sure that I’m being consistent and going out there and being a reliable source every week," Jefferson said Friday. "That’s just something that comes with the connection with me and Kirk and just the plays that are drawn up for me. Continuing to go out there and just be myself and make the plays that I’m capable of making.”

As for Thielen, he had a big fourth quarter against the Packers but has been relatively quiet ever since. With Jefferson now commanding some serious attention like Diggs used to, this feels like a game where Thielen could see a ton of action.

2. Prevent big passing plays on defense

Nothing has gone particularly well for Mike Zimmer's defense, as the Vikings are allowing the third-most yards per game and second-most points per game in the NFL thus far. But one thing that has consistently been a big problem is allowing big plays in the passing game. They're giving up explosive passes on 13 percent of opponents' dropbacks, which is the worst rate in the league, per Sharp Football Stats.

In Week 1, the Vikings gave up passes of 45, 39, and 38 yards to Rodgers. In Week 2, the Colts burned them for gains of 33, 28, and 27. And last week against the Titans, Tannehill had completions of 61, 44, and 38 yards.

Eventually, the Vikings need to figure out how to stop giving up three or more big pass plays every game. That'll be a challenge this week against Watson and the Texans. Hopkins is gone, but Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, and Randall Cobb have all graded well by PFF and possess the speed to stretch a defense.

“There’s areas where we’ve actually been strong all year – red zone, stuff like that, some situations," Harrison Smith said. "There’s been other areas where we’ve been very poor, deep balls being one. You just can’t have that as a defense."

The Vikings will be rolling out their fourth different cornerback trio in as many weeks, with rookies Cameron Dantzler and Jeff Gladney joining the struggling Holton Hill. They need that group to be solid. Zimmer also criticized his star safeties Smith and Anthony Harris for biting too hard on a couple plays last week, so they need them to help prevent the big plays over the top.

Another thing that goes hand in hand with that is creating pressure. Without Hunter, the Vikings have struggled to put pressure on opposing QBs. They need Yannick Ngakoue, Ifeadi Odenigbo, and company to make Watson's life difficult so he doesn't have all day to scan the field and take deep shots.

3. Show some signs of life on the interior offensive line

For all of the good things the Vikings did on offense last weekend, their attempt at a game-winning drive turned into a disaster because of their interior offensive line. Dru Samia and Garrett Bradbury were pushed back into Cousins multiple times, giving him zero time to go through his progressions and attempt a pass (Bradbury snapping the ball too early, causing a major loss of yards, also didn't help).

That's been a common theme for the Vikings this year. Bradbury has been decent, but the team's guard play has been the worst in the NFL (who could've seen this coming?) and it's been a major issue for Cousins. Dakota Dozier is clearly a backup-quality player, but he's looked like an All-Pro in comparison to Dru Samia. The 2019 fourth-round pick stepped in when Pat Elflein got hurt prior to Week 2 and has surrendered 11 pressures in two games. Samia ranks dead last out of 77 guards in PFF's grades and hasn't looked like he's capable of playing in the NFL.

Samia seems likely to get one more chance to start this week with Elflein potentially returning from IR in Week 5. However, the Vikings could also theoretically bail on Samia and give rookie Ezra Cleveland a chance this week. Either way, they need Dozier, Bradbury, and the other guard to merely provide competent play.

That could be difficult against the Texans. J.J. Watt leads Houston with nine pressures and frequently lines up on the inside of the defensive line. Defensive tackle Charles Omenihu is second with eight pressures. Those two will be a handful. The Vikings simply need to give Cousins a chance to have some clean pockets so he can find Thielen and Jefferson downfield.

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