Trading down from 24 feels inevitable for Vikings in this NFL draft

The Vikings need picks. This draft is believed to be deep. Trading back makes too much sense.
Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah talks to the media.
Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah talks to the media. / Images courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings
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The NFL world is fully into draft season these days. The Senior Bowl is underway, the scouting combine is about a month away, and fresh mock drafts are hitting the internet every day.

In those mock drafts, the Vikings hold the No. 24 pick, which they typically use to select some defensive tackle or offensive lineman or defensive back. They're interesting exercises that help paint the picture of who might be available at that draft slot, and we'll continue covering notable ones here at Vikings On SI.

But there's also a very good chance that none of those mocks will accurately predict reality. Why? Because all the evidence suggests it's rather unlikely Minnesota actually makes that selection.

A trade down from 24 feels almost inevitable for GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and the Vikings in this year's draft. They desperately need more picks; beyond that first-round choice, the Vikings have just a third-round compensatory pick (likely No. 97 overall) and two fifth-rounders. That's the weakest amount of draft capital in the league by a decent margin. Additionally, this year's draft is viewed to be a deep one into the second and third rounds, especially at a couple positions of need for Minnesota.

The simplest way for the Vikings to recoup draft capital will be to move down. Last year, they gave up a third-rounder, a fourth-rounder, and a fifth-rounder to go up from 23 to 17 for Dallas Turner. The Cowboys got a third-round pick to move back from 24 to 29. In 2022, the Chiefs got a third and a fourth to move back from 21 to 29. In that draft, Adofo-Mensah's first, the Vikings famously traded back once on Day 1 and again on Day 2, adding theoretical value in the process.

Vikings fans will shudder at any mention of the 2022 draft, when Minnesota moved back from the 12th pick and, after multiple other deals, ended up with Lewis Cine, Andrew Booth Jr., Ed Ingram, and Brian Asamoah II in the top 66 picks. But just because those players didn't pan out doesn't mean the strategy can't work out this year. (And for those who claim Adofo-Mensah can't draft, I'd counter with Jordan Addison being a home run and Mekhi Blackmon, J.J. McCarthy, and Turner all looking promising).

The lesson from '22 is that if a stud player who the Vikings love happens to fall to them at 24, they should pull the trigger. You don't want to miss out on a possible game-changer (like Kyle Hamilton or Trent McDuffie) to move back just for the sake of moving back. Of course, there's no benefit of hindsight when the draft is happening, but you get the point.

Trading back is still generally a smart idea, given that teams will overpay to move up for a player they have more conviction in than the historical randomness of draft outcomes suggests they should. Moving back gives you more bites of the apple in an event that is very hard to predict. In a deep draft like this one, that seems to be exactly what the Vikings need.

Indications from draft analysts are that this class is particularly deep at defensive tackle and running back, which happen to be two of Minnesota's positions of need. But the only way the Vikings can address several position groups in this draft is if they find a way to have more than four selections.

Considering Adofo-Mensah's analytical background, there's no world in which he's content making just four picks in this draft. Whether the Vikings move back from 24 to a later pick in the first round or out of the round entirely, it feels like a no-brainer to do so and add more top-100 selections — unless someone falls to 24 who is just too enticing to pass up.


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Published
Will Ragatz
WILL RAGATZ

Will Ragatz is a senior writer for Vikings On SI. He is a credentialed Minnesota Vikings beat reporter, covering the team extensively at practices, games and throughout the NFL draft and free agency period. Ragatz attended Northwestern University, where he studied at the prestigious Medill School of Journalism. During his time as a student, he covered Northwestern Wildcats football and basketball for SB Nation’s Inside NU, eventually serving as co-editor-in-chief in his junior year. In the fall of 2018, Will interned in Sports Illustrated’s newsroom in New York City, where he wrote articles on Major League Baseball, college football, and college basketball for SI.com.