In Trading Up for J.J. McCarthy and Dallas Turner, the Vikings Swung For the Fences

The Vikings had a bold first night of the NFL draft. It'll be fascinating to see if it pays off.

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy makes a pass against Alabama linebacker Dallas Turner during the first half of the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, on Monday, Jan. 1, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

Before anybody else traded up during the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft on Thursday night, the Vikings had already done so twice. GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and company swung for the fences in what could be a franchise-defining draft, choosing quality over quantity and landing a pair of players who they believe will be cornerstones of their future.

It was no secret that the Vikings came into this draft needing a quarterback. They inquired with the Patriots about trading up to the third pick for Drake Maye, but weren't willing to pay the gargantuan price that would've been required. So they waited and let things unfold. A shocker came at the eighth pick, when the Falcons — who just committed a substantial amount of money to Kirk Cousins — made Michael Penix Jr. the fourth QB off the board. Not wanting to risk getting jumped by a team like the Broncos or Raiders, the Vikings decided to call the Jets and move up one spot to get their guy. After going from 11 to 10, the Vikings selected Michigan's J.J. McCarthy to be their long-term answer at the sport's most important position.

"We're always talking about minimizing regret," Adofo-Mensah said of the trade to move up one spot. "If you're sitting on your couch one day and you're like, that extra fifth, or whatever it was, and you could have had a chance at a guy that you think has traits and could be special — you're never going to care about that fifth round pick."

In McCarthy, the Vikings are adding a quarterback who has won at every level. He went 63-3 as a starter across high school and college, highlighted by a national championship at Michigan last year. There's some projection required in McCarthy's evaluation because he played in a run-heavy Wolverines offense; he's a statistical outlier as a modern first-round pick who never threw for 3,000 yards in a college season. Nonetheless, he has the athleticism, arm talent, and pocket presence to develop into a quality NFL QB — and maybe a star, now that he's landed with a Vikings team that's set up wonderfully for a rookie quarterback.

McCarthy projects as a great fit in Kevin O'Connell's offense for several reasons, including his effectiveness as a play-action passer. He takes care of the football and is capable of making high-level anticipatory throws over the middle of the field, which are important traits. He also has the ability to get outside of the pocket and make things happen when a play doesn't go as planned. McCarthy was extremely efficient last season, completing over 72 percent of his passes, and he was at his best in big moments when his team needed a conversion. The Vikings have the option to let him sit behind Sam Darnold for a bit in 2024, but McCarthy might be ready to throw to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison right away.

"You go back through and center your focus on those weighty downs, those third downs where you see him third-and-seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12, at a pretty strong clip, move the football team and generate new downs and get them down in the red zone and make some big-time throws to put the ball in the end zone," O'Connell said. "In big, big moments in games when they needed him, in some ways to find a way, other ways just to make a throw, other ways to extend a play, he made a lot of those plays."

The Vikings weren't done. They still had the 23rd overall pick that they acquired from the Texans last month, which many assumed was going to be used as ammunition to move up for a QB. And with the way the board played out on Thursday, the Vikings sensed another opportunity to strike. The first 14 picks in this draft were all offensive players, which pushed down some big-time defensive talent. So the Vikings sent three picks to the Jaguars to move up from 23 to 17 and take Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner, who was viewed as a likely top-ten pick coming into the night.

"You know, you never want to give up future picks," Adofo-Mensah said. "You always want to stay pat. But I just know when a player is that much of an outlier standing out, we trust our board, and our evaluation process is pretty good. We knew that there were teams coming up, and we confirmed that there was a team that had a deal with the (Jaguars), and I had to go a little bit more aggressive. But for players like that who we would have taken at 11, who we thought were gonna go before we picked,  you don't end up regretting those decisions."

Vikings Draft Grades: What Do Analysts Think of J.J. McCarthy, Dallas Turner Picks?

Turner, like McCarthy, is one of the younger players in this draft, having turned 21 earlier this year. He had 8.5 sacks in the SEC as an 18-year-old true freshman, then earned consensus All-American honors last season after an 11-sack campaign. Turner has elite burst off the line of scrimmage and plenty of strength. He's bendy, he's relentless in pursuit, and he has powerful hands. He's an athletic specimen of an edge rusher. There's a reason why many analysts ranked him as the best defensive player in this draft class.

The Vikings didn't think they'd have a chance to land Turner, knowing they were almost certainly going quarterback with their first pick. When they saw him still in the board with their pick approaching, they decided to be bold and go get him. To land both McCarthy and Turner — as direct, high-upside replacements for Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter — feels like a pretty incredible haul for Minnesota.

"We were able to add two cornerstone-type pieces to the franchise," Adofo-Mensah said. "Add a  quarterback who’s got a lot of potential of ability — he’s won at a high level in a lot of different places.  An edge rusher who again impacts the game and is really just scratching the surface with his ability. We can’t believe we got them both in the same draft."

In order to get McCarthy and Turner, the Vikings paid a significant price. They gave up a fourth-rounder and a fifth-rounder to go up one spot for the QB, getting a sixth-rounder back. More notably, they traded a third and a fourth next year, plus a fifth-rounder this year, to move up six spots for Turner. When you factor in the deal with the Texans that got the Vikings the 23rd pick for two second-rounders, they gave up quite a bit to go up to the 17th pick. When looking at the broader picture of how the Vikings ended up with Turner, the analytics-based charts all see it as a sizable loss for the Vikings in terms of trade value.

If we combine the value lost by the Vikings' two trades (earlier deal with Texans to get to 23, then deal to move from 23 to 17), they burned the equivalent of an extra mid-first-round pick.

In other words: they basically spent *two* mid-firsts on Dallas Turner.

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) April 26, 2024

The Vikings might've made that initial trade for the 23rd pick thinking it would help them go up for a quarterback, which fell through due to the Patriots deciding to take Maye for themselves. Pivoting by moving up for a pass rusher they thought would go earlier is understandable, but it turned out to a be a lot to give up to get Turner. Of course, if he becomes a star in Minnesota's defense, it'll have been worth it.

"Obviously, I'm a spreadsheet and calculator guy myself, but sometimes you’ve gotta step out from there, take your Clark Kent glasses off, and just have a championship mindset and swing for a great player," Adofo-Mensah said.

The Vikings currently have only one pick in rounds 2-5 in this draft — a fourth-rounder. They've got three total picks in next year's draft, not including potential compensatory selections. The pessimistic view of things is that they gave up too much capital to move up for a pair of players who, like all draft picks, are far from sure things.

The optimistic way to view it is that the Vikings just drafted J.J. McCarthy and Dallas Turner while holding onto their 2025 first-round pick. Coming into the night, who could've imagined that? They got their quarterback of the future and arguably the best defender in the draft. That's a pretty thrilling outcome, no matter the other picks they surrendered to make it happen.

The Vikings swung big on Thursday night, going all-in on a couple players who they believe can be foundational pieces on a championship contender. It'll be fascinating to see if they're right.

---

Thanks for reading. Make sure to bookmark this site and check back daily for the latest Vikings news and analysis all offseason long.

Follow Will Ragatz on X/Twitter