NFL Draft: Vikings Listed as Best Team Fit for Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy

Is McCarthy destined to end up as the Vikings' quarterback of the future?

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy misses the trophy to celebrate 34-13 win over Washington at the / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

Is Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy destined to end up as the Vikings' quarterback of the future? If things play out the way they're expected to, McCarthy feels like the player who is most likely to wind up as Minnesota's first-round pick in this year's draft.

There's been some buzz about McCarthy going in the top three picks, but it's hard to tell what's real and what's smoke this time of year. It still feels like a safe assumption that the top three selections on April 25th will be Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye (perhaps with Maye ahead of Daniels). And while both the Commanders and Patriots could consider moving down, they have plenty of incentive to stay put and make those picks themselves. There's no guarantee that those teams will be in position to land a franchise quarterback again, which is the main reason to do it now. Plus, the theoretical cost for the Vikings to move all the way up to No. 2 or No. 3 — three first-rounders and plenty more — might be tough to stomach, unless they're truly all-in on someone like Maye or Daniels.

Moving up to the Cardinals' No. 4 pick or the Chargers' No. 5 pick to land McCarthy feels more likely. Those teams already have their quarterbacks in place and (in theory) won't be able to demand quite as much in a trade as Washington or New England could.

Here's the important thing to keep in mind: Although the allure of someone like Maye is enticing, McCarthy would be a very exciting pick for the Vikings in his own right. The 21-year-old went 27-1 as Michigan's starter, won a national title, and has the physical tools to blossom as a passer in the NFL after his volume was intentionally limited on a run-heavy Wolverines offense over the past two years. He has legit arm talent and athleticism to go with his impressive intangibles.

ESPN's Matt Bowen recently chose the Vikings as the best team fit for McCarthy in this draft.

"The Vikings can set up McCarthy as a distributor in Kevin O'Connell's defined passing game, using play-action concepts to put him in a position to throw with better timing and rhythm," Bowen wrote. "McCarthy completed 76.3% of his play-action passes last season, putting up a Total QBR of 90.4. Those are outstanding numbers, and the fit works perfectly in Minnesota. Plus, McCarthy has the second-reaction skills as a passer to make plays outside of structure when necessary. He can use his legs to create throwing windows. The Vikings added veteran Sam Darnold in free agency, but McCarthy could be their long-term starter."

As Bowen describes, McCarthy's fit with the Vikings makes a lot of sense because of his proficiency in play-action passing. Kevin O'Connell could maximize McCarthy's game by putting him in positions to succeed in an offense loaded with skill position talent. McCarthy won't be on Kirk Cousins' level right away (or maybe ever) as a processor and pinpoint distributor from the pocket, but he has more ability to create outside of structure due to his mobility. He'll also be more than $40 million cheaper on an annual basis.

The Vikings could try to wait for McCarthy to fall to 11, but that's a dangerous game with the Giants at No. 6 and the Broncos and Raiders (12 and 13) looming as teams who could move up. Trading up to 4 or 5 feels like the sweet spot, even if they have to overpay a bit to make it happen.

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