Vikings-Buccaneers Preview: Top Storylines, Players to Watch, Opponent Q&A

The Vikings are in Tampa for a huge game against the Buccaneers in Week 14.

This is a big one. The Vikings (6-6) are headed to Tampa for a huge matchup with the Buccaneers (7-5) on Sunday. It's a game that has major stakes in the NFC playoff picture, with these teams currently occupying the two final wild card spots and looking to stay there.

It's a particularly massive game for the Vikings, whose likelihood of making the playoffs would be 72 percent with a win and 24 percent with a loss (per FiveThirtyEight). The Bucs can basically solidify their spot with a victory, as they'd have a 97 percent chance to reach the postseason with a win but only a 62 percent chance with a loss.

So who will get the job done? Tampa Bay is a 6.5-point home favorite and has had two weeks to prepare for this game, but has lost three of its past four games (with all three losses coming at home). The Vikings have won five of their last six, but struggled through what should've been an easy three-game homestand and are missing one of their best players.

Here's a look at some of the top storylines and players to watch when each team has the ball, along with insight from our Buccaneers publisher at the end.

When the Buccaneers have the ball

Key storyline: Can the Vikings get pressure on Tom Brady?

Mike Zimmer and the Vikings' defense are going to have their hands full. Even at 43 years old, Brady remains one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. More importantly, he has a great offense around him, with an above-average line and a stable of talented weapons. 

The big question is whether or not the Vikings will be able to make Brady uncomfortable. He ranks 23rd in passer rating when under pressure (per PFF) and is capable of turning the ball over, having thrown multiple interceptions in each of the last three home losses. When the pocket is kept clean, Brady ranks 12th in passer rating and trails only Aaron Rodgers in touchdown passes.

The Vikings have one of the weaker defensive lines in the NFL, meaning Zimmer may have to send blitzes to get pressure on Brady. But how often does he want to risk having Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski face single coverage? Zimmer has had an outstanding year as a defensive playcaller and the Vikings need him to win the chess match with Bruce Arians on Sunday.

When the Vikings are only rushing four, they need their unheralded group of defensive ends to win some reps and get to Brady. That group starts with Ifeadi Odenigbo, who had eight pressures last week and said he thinks the D-line is "getting hot at the right time." Odenigbo's matchup against Bucs left tackle Donovan Smith is an important one to monitor on Sunday.

Three players to watch

Vikings rookie cornerback Cameron Dantzler had a breakout performance against the Jaguars last week, ranking as PFF's top CB of Week 13 after creating two takeaways and displaying excellent coverage all game long. Now it's time to see what he has in store for an encore against a much tougher opponent. The Vikings need Dantzler and Jeff Gladney to play well against the Bucs' outstanding trio of receivers.

Eric Kendricks being out for the Vikings is big. They'll turn to veteran Todd Davis as a full-time inside linebacker alongside Eric Wilson for the second straight game. Davis playing well would go a long ways towards limiting Ronald Jones in the run game. "We just want these guys to go in there and play well and be themselves," Zimmer said. Todd Davis and Eric Wilson, those guys have done a nice job. They’re good football players. They’re not Kendricks but that’s OK."

The trio of receivers gets a lot of attention, but the Vikings need to find a way to slow down Rob Gronkowski, who had 106 receiving yards in Tampa's last game and is a major threat in the red zone. How Minnesota covers him will be very interesting. "We may have to have more than one guy on him," Zimmer said this week.

When the Vikings have the ball

Key storyline: Will the Vikings air it out if the run game isn't working?

All year long, the Vikings have stuck to the same offensive gameplan: run the ball with Dalvin Cook and utilize play-action to create big gains. Zimmer is an old-school coach who wants to have a run-heavy offense, and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak has a similar philosophy. Cook has touched the ball 30-plus times in four of the past six games, including an obscene 38 times last week.

The issue is that for as great as Cook is, running the ball as much as the Vikings do simply isn't the most efficient way to attack NFL defenses. It's going to be even tougher to do this week, considering the Buccaneers have allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL. Tampa's front seven is great at shutting down the run, so a huge performance from Cook seems unlikely.

The question, then, is what the Vikings will do if Cook isn't getting much space to work with. Will they stick with what they've done all year and continue running him into a brick wall, or will Kubiak adapt and put the game on Kirk Cousins' shoulders?

If the Vikings are going to win this game, Cousins needs to have a big-time performance. He's been fantastic over the past five weeks, but only one of those games came against a good defense. Now it's time to see if he can step up in a huge spot and lead his team to an important victory. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen shouldn't have much trouble getting open against Bucs corners Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting, but Cousins needs to deliver accurate throws – and he'll often have to do it while facing a lot of pressure from the Tampa defense.

Also, will the Vikings take more deep shots? They didn't throw deep until the second half against the Jaguars. Jefferson is too good to not be utilized on shot plays several times per game.

Three players to watch

Cook, Jefferson, and Thielen are obviously the Vikings' big three on offense, but I'm curious to see if tight end Irv Smith Jr. sees a decent number of targets on Sunday. He's listed as questionable while trying to return from a back injury, but is expected to play. Smith has a big opportunity in Tampa; he'll likely be playing the first game of his career in which Kyle Rudolph (doubtful, foot) isn't also present. The athletic Alabama product having a big afternoon would be huge for the Vikings.

This is going to be a difficult challenge for Vikings tackles Riley Reiff and Brian O'Neill as they face off against Bucs edge rushers Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. Barrett led the NFL in sacks last year and has had at least four pressures in every game this season. Pierre-Paul is dangerous too, as he leads the team and is tied for sixth in the league with 8.5 sacks this season.

One of the most obvious storylines is rookie safety Antoine Winfield Jr. facing off against his dad's former team. Winfield grew up cheering for the Vikings and starred at the University of Minnesota, and he's now a potential Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate in Tampa. "I’ve always loved the Vikings, watched pretty much all their games when I was growing up, so it’s going to be a cool experience being able play against one of my favorite teams," Winfield said. It kind of feels like a Winfield interception of Cousins is coming on Sunday, doesn't it?

Special teams player to watch

The Vikings need kicker Dan Bailey to have a bounce-back game. The veteran missed three kicks last week against Jacksonville – two extra points and a potential game-winning field goal – which doubled his total of missed kicks on the season. "I'm a little embarrassed about it, to be honest," Bailey said. "But it's just one of those things where you just have to move on and try to go knock the next ones through.”

Behind Enemy Lines: Five Questions with SI's Buccaneers site

To get some extra intel about the Buccaneers ahead of this game, I sent five questions to Zach Gooddall of SI's All Bucs. Here's what he had to say:

When Tom Brady chose to sign with Tampa, expectations went through the roof. What's the level of disappointment and concern surrounding the team's 7-5 start?

This month will likely determine that. The Bucs got off to a hot start this season with a 6-2 record but are 1-3 in their last four, each loss coming at home. Brady has played pretty well throughout the year, but we've seen Bruce Arians and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich lean on him too much recently while Ronald Jones has been rather unused despite ranking as the league's No. 4 rusher. A late bye week, you'd figure, will help the offense iron out its issues and allow Brady to play his best ball in December.

The Buccaneers seem to have been fairly up and down this year – two prime examples being the dominant win over the Packers and nearly getting shut out by the Saints. What do you think has caused that inconsistency?

Offensively, leaning on a 43-year-old Brady for an average of 41.5 passes per game over the last four has led to some interceptions. Jones has been productive when he's been fed and Arians insists that Jones is his "guy," but he's not showing it as Jones had 45 carries in the same stretch of games – 23 of them came against Carolina, Tampa Bay's lone win of the four. Brady isn't a gunslinger, and while Arians is known as a vertical-minded playcaller, he can't turn Brady into one this late in his career and expect great results. The saying is cliché, but if the Buccaneers can establish the run down the stretch, it should open up a lot more opportunities for Brady and limit his turnovers.

The Bucs are allowing the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL this season, setting up a fascinating battle with Dalvin Cook and the run-heavy Vikings. What makes them so good at stopping the run?

They have a solid group up front, but this inside linebacker duo is fantastic. Devin White and Lavonte David have combined for 87 stops, which PFF defines as a tackle that constitutes a failure for the offense. The two have tallied 21 run stops apiece and only four other teams have seen similar or better production from their LBs.

The Vikings may need to pass the ball a lot, and Kirk Cousins' targets will be heavily concentrated towards Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. What have you seen from Tampa's secondary this year, and how worrisome were the huge days from Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff over the team's past two games?

Tampa Bay's secondary, likely down a starter in cornerback Jamel Dean (doubtful, groin), has struggled dealing with up-tempo offenses to begin games, and that's allowed offenses to extend drives as games have gone on. Shoot, even Teddy Bridgewater came out 13-of-13 for 126 yards and two touchdowns against the Bucs a couple of weeks back before they recovered and put the game away offensively. Even though Dalvin Cook is a workhorse, Minnesota could benefit from targeting Thielen and Jefferson early and often to open up the run as the game goes on.

Lastly, let's hear your prediction for this one, which has massive NFC playoff implications. Who wins on Sunday and why?

Ultimately, I'm thinking the Bucs end their home skid after a week to self-scout and get back into a groove. The Bucs have struggled on third downs as of late and Minnesota won't make it easy to end that skid, but I'm going to give Brady and the firepower this offense possesses the benefit of the doubt as Brady has a pretty solid track record when it comes to winning December football games. Minnesota covers the 6.5-point spread but Tampa Bay takes it, 31-27.

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