Vikings' Cameron Dantzler Among Next Gen Stats' Top 10 Coverage Players of 2021

Advanced metrics indicate Dantzler is a better player than he's generally perceived to be.

Is Cameron Dantzler underrated?

All offseason, cornerback was viewed as one of the weakest position groups on the Vikings' roster and an area where upgrades were sorely needed. New general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah poured significant resources into that room, re-signing Patrick Peterson, adding Chandon Sullivan and Nate Hairston in free agency, and drafting Andrew Booth Jr. (42nd overall) and Akayleb Evans (118th).

The one starting-caliber player who's been there all along is Dantzler. Despite having just two seasons under his belt, the 2020 third-round pick is the longest-tenured corner on the roster other than 2019 seventh-rounder Kris Boyd, who is primarily a special teams player.

This is entirely subjective, but it seems like Dantzler is viewed by most fans as a passable starting corner who needs to improve to be in the Vikings' long-term plans. I'd imagine many have even penciled Booth into the starting lineup over him, despite the rookie's injury history.

Although Dantzler has struggled a bit with consistency and has had a few memorable gaffes on individual plays, his statistics are extremely impressive for a third-rounder's first two seasons. As a rookie in 2020, his 70.9 PFF grade ranked 20th out of 70 corners who played at least 600 snaps. Last year, his 73.8 grade ranked 16th out of 80 corners with those parameters, and his 90.9 run defense grade was by far the best among all corners. PFF grades are far from an end-all, be-all metric, especially for coverage players, but those numbers paint Dantzler as being closer to a star than someone in danger of losing their starting job.

It's not just PFF, either. NFL.com's Next Gen Stats just released their ranking of the top 10 coverage players of 2021, and Dantzler cracked the list at No. 7. Here's the explanation of how the list was formed by writer Nick Shook:

Now, here are some important notes about the parameters I used to separate the best coverage defenders from the rest. In order to qualify, players needed a minimum of 300 coverage snaps, 40 targets as the nearest defender and a catch rate allowed below expectation (meaning they're consistently breaking up passes that were likely to be completions). Also, qualifiers needed a negative targeted expected points added (a metric used to quantify how much an individual player impacts an opponents' scoring potential and the most important metric used in this exercise), a tight-window percentage of at least 20 (15 for linebackers, due to the nature of their position as second-level run defenders and coverage defenders) and a maximum passer rating allowed of 80.

And here are Dantzler's numbers, along with Shook's commentary:

Passer rating allowed:

74 

Catch rate allowed below expectation:

-7.4% 

Tight window pct:

20.6% 

Target rate:

19.6% 

Average separation:

2.8 yards 

Targeted expected points added:

-18.2

Seeing Dantzler here might come as a surprise, but the metrics for him were too good to overlook. He posted a targeted EPA of -18.2 (10th among DBs). Dantzler excelled at limiting yards gained by opposing pass catchers, allowing just 4.9 yards per target in coverage, one of the lowest rates in the NFL. He also tied for the fourth-fewest yards after catch per reception allowed at 2.3. A tight-window percentage of 20.6 just barely nudged him into qualifying for the list, but it allowed for folks like me to realize Dantzler was better in coverage than most realized.

Other cornerbacks in the top 10 include Xavien Howard, Jamel Dean, J.C. Jackson, Patrick Surtain II, and A.J. Terrell. That's pretty good company.

2022 is a big season for Dantzler, who has two years left on his rookie contract. If he can hold off a push from Booth for his starting role and continue to put up strong numbers with a little more consistency, he could be in line for a lucrative extension next offseason. But regardless of how this season ends up turning out, the advanced metrics indicate Dantzler should be getting a bit more respect than it seems like he does.

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