Vikings-Colts Preview: Saturday is a Perfect Get-Right Spot For Minnesota's Defense

The Colts come to Minnesota with one of the worst offenses in the NFL — but a formidable defense.

It would be hard to draw up a better get-right spot for the Vikings' struggling, heavily-criticized defense than Saturday's matchup against the Indianapolis Colts.

All week, the discussion in Minnesota has revolved around Ed Donatell's defense, which has surrendered over 400 yards in five consecutive games and has allowed more total yards and passing yards than anyone in the NFL. The panic meter is completely full after last week's loss in Detroit, in which Jared Goff threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns without appearing to break a sweat.

Head coach Kevin O'Connell has made it clear that adjustments need to be made. Donatell spent his weekly press conference preaching confidence, while acknowledging that things need to improve. Patrick Peterson talked about the importance of communication and execution throughout every level of the defense, and stated the obvious: players aren't happy with these recent statistics and results.

The Vikings' defense is going to be a motivated unit on Saturday, and the state of the offense they'll be facing provides a fantastic opportunity to bounce back and put together a strong performance. The Colts come into this game ranked 32nd in offensive DVOA, 31st in EPA per play, and 31st in points per game (16.1). The Vikings have specifically been burned through the air, but the Colts are 32nd in passing DVOA and 29th in dropback EPA per play.

"On the defensive side, everybody's kind of on them at this moment," Justin Jefferson said. "I feel like they've got a lot to prove."

37-year-old Matt Ryan is the latest member of the Colts' veteran QB carousel in the post-Andrew Luck era, following Carson Wentz, Philip Rivers, and Jacoby Brissett. It hasn't gone well for the former MVP. Ryan leads the NFL with 13 interceptions, which is the same number of touchdowns he's thrown. His passer rating, QBR, and advanced metrics are all near the bottom of the league. Earlier this season, Ryan was briefly benched in favor of Sam Ehlinger, though that lasted just two games.

This is a great chance for the Vikings' pass rush — which had 26 sacks through nine games but has just four in four games since then — to get going. The Colts' offensive line isn't nearly what it once was, even though Quenton Nelson is still there at left guard. LT Bernhard Raimann and RG Will Fries are particularly exploitable. Ryan has been sacked 35 times, which is tied for the fourth-most of any quarterback. And he's been abysmal under pressure this season; among the 25 QBs with at least 100 pressured dropbacks, only Kyler Murray and Mac Jones have worse PFF grades on those plays. In addition to his 13 picks, Ryan's five lost fumbles trail only Trevor Lawrence.

The Colts have a great running back in Jonathan Taylor, a decent stable of pass-catchers led by Michael Pittman Jr, and a quarterback who has played a lot of football, but make no mistake: this is a very bad offense. In other words, if the Vikings' defense gets shredded again this week, it'll probably be time to consider drastic changes before the postseason begins. With Harrison Smith back, there's no excuse for coverage busts on the back end. The Vikings' four-man rush should be able to get to Ryan, but Donatell would be wise to send some well-timed blitzes at the past-his-prime QB as well.

Indianapolis' defense is another story, and the primary reason why they've managed to win four games this season. The Colts rank 12th in defensive DVOA, 9th in opponent EPA per play, and 8th in yards allowed. They're third in passing yards allowed per game and haven't let a single QB throw for 280 yards against them this season. Indy is coming off of giving up 54 points to the Cowboys before their bye week, but that was mostly due to rushing yards and short fields set up by the Colts' five turnovers.

The last time the Vikings played the Colts, back in Week 2 of the 2020 season at Lucas Oil Stadium, Kirk Cousins went 11 for 26 with no touchdowns and three interceptions in a 28-11 loss. It was one of the worst games of his career. Now, only four key Colts defensive players from that game — LB Bobby Okereke, DTs DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, and S Julian Blackmon — are still healthy and with the team. LB Shaquille Leonard and CB Kenny Moore II are injured, and other players have retired or changed teams. Still, that gives you an idea of what this defense has looked like for a few years.

It starts up front with the Colts. Buckner is one of the elite interior defensive linemen in the NFL, and Stewart is an excellent player as well. On the edge, the Colts added Yannick Ngakoue, who played for the Vikings in that last meeting and leads Indy in pressures (37) and sacks (8.5) this year. 2021 first-rounder Kwity Paye starts on the other side of the line. 

Even without Leonard, the linebackers (Okereke and Zaire Franklin) are quite good. And even without Moore, the secondary is solid. Former defensive player of the year Stephon Gilmore is still a shutdown No. 1 corner, although he'll have his hands full with Justin Jefferson. Isaiah Rodgers, the other CB, is an ascending player (and a dangerous return specialist). Safeties Rodney McLoud, Rodney Thomas II, and Blackmon are all reliable.

But the player to watch, above all, is Buckner. The Vikings have a struggling right guard in Ed Ingram, and who can forget what happened the last time Buckner faced a struggling Vikings right guard?

DeForest Buckner's hump move against Dru Samia is straight up insane. ELITE pic.twitter.com/hBsAsIMcUS

— Zach Hicks (@ZachHicks2) September 22, 2020

"I think (he's) one of the premier three-techniques in the league," O'Connell said. "Can really change the game. You've got to know where he is and account for him."

The Colts aren't quite as stout against the run as they are against the pass, so this will be a good spot for the Vikings to try to revive a running game that generated just 22 yards on 17 carries in Detroit.

Offensively, this will be another good test for Cousins, O'Connell, and company against a good defense. But all the pressure and focus will be on the Vikings' defense when the Colts have the football. Donatell's group has its back against the wall, and I'm very curious to see what kind of adjustments they make — and how they respond, in general — against an offense that hasn't gotten much going all year.

Remember, kickoff is on Saturday, not Sunday, at noon central time in Minneapolis.

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