Vikings-Colts preview: Three numbers to know about Indianapolis

The Colts are a middle-of-the-road team who could still give the Vikings some issues.

Oct 13, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Joe Flacco (15) stands in the pocket against the Tennessee Titans during the second half at Nissan Stadium. / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

One of the biggest stories in the NFL this week has been the Colts' decision to bench second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson after ten career starts and go with 39-year-old veteran Joe Flacco. That subplot will loom large over this Sunday's primetime game against the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium.

But what else is notable about the 4-4 Colts? As we look ahead to a night where the Vikings will be desperately trying to avoid a three-game losing streak, here are three numbers to know about the opponent that's coming to town this weekend.

0.249 — Flacco's EPA per play

It's a small sample size, but Flacco has followed up his Comeback Player of the Year-winning stretch with the Browns last season with even better play this season. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps this season, his EPA (expected points added) per play ranks fourth, trailing only Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, and Lamar Jackson. Again, small sample size, but it's an impressive number.

Flacco's best game came in Week 5 against the Jaguars, when he completed 33 of 44 attempts for 359 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no picks. He did lose a fumble in that game as the Colts fell 37-34 in Jacksonville. Sandwiched around that game were decent performances against the Titans and Steelers.

The Vikings have faced a good quarterback just about every week this year — Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford — so Flacco might be the worst QB they've seen since Daniel Jones in the opener. But make no mistake, Brian Flores and his defense would've almost certainly preferred to go against the young, mistake-prone Richardson. Flacco is a veteran who has seen it all and will look to replicate some of the things that Goff and Stafford did against this defense.

81.3 — Indy's team pass block grade

Flacco has the luxury of playing behind what might be the best offensive line in football. Not only do the Colts lead the league in PFF pass blocking grade as a team, they also lead the league in run blocking grade. It's an outstanding group, led by six-time Pro Bowler Quenton Nelson at left guard and four-time Pro Bowler Ryan Kelly at center. The tackles, Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith, are solid. And right guard Dalton Tucker has been OK stepping in for injured starter Will Fries.

Going against an offensive line this good will be quite the challenge for the Vikings' defensive front. They'll need to stop Jonathan Taylor and the running game, first and foremost, which isn't easy (getting LB Blake Cashman back from injury would be huge). And then they'll have to try to get pressure on Flacco, particularly via stud edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel. If Flacco has time to sit in the pocket, he has the weapons — Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Alec Pierce — to make things happen.

8 — One-score games Colts have played

Every single game the Colts have played this season, whether it's been Richardson or Flacco at QB, whether it's been in Indianapolis or elsewhere, has finished with a one-score margin. They have wins by 5 (Bears), 3 (Steelers), 3 (Titans), and 6 (Dolphins). They have losses by 2 (Texans), 6 (Packers), 3 (Jaguars), and 3 (Texans). It all adds up to a plus-3 point differential on the season.

The NFL record for one-score games (margin of 8 or less) in a season is 14, which is held by four teams, including the 2021 and 2023 Vikings. The Colts just need seven in their final nine to break that mark.

Indianapolis is a perfectly middling football team in numerous metrics. They're good enough to hang in every game, but not good enough to separate and blow you out. So unless the Vikings show up on Sunday night and get back to playing the way they did earlier this season, the safe bet is that we'll have another one-score game on our hands in Minneapolis.