Vikings-Jaguars preview: Three key areas to watch on Sunday

On paper, this is a great opportunity for the Vikings to move to 7-2.

Dec 6, 2020; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) catches a pass in the third quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars defensive back Luq Barcoo (36) at U.S. Bank Stadium. / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

The 6-2 Vikings have a great opportunity to get their seventh win of the season on Sunday when they head to Jacksonville to take on a 2-7 Jaguars team that is expected to be without starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence due to a shoulder injury. It'll be Mac Jones at QB for the Jaguars, who are in the middle of another lost season. With that news, the line jumped from 4.5 to 7 points in favor of the visiting team.

The Vikings are 6-1 all-time against the Jaguars — who they play roughly once every four years — with the lone loss coming in 2001. This is a situation where if Minnesota plays up to its usual level, it should be able to take care of business against an overmatched opponent. But nothing's easy in the NFL, so the Vikings can't look past this one, especially with the red-hot Lions giving them such a small margin for error to remain in the NFC North race.

Here are three key storylines to watch in Sunday's game at EverBank Stadium.

1. Mac Jones against the Vikings' elite defense

There was a time, late in the Mike Zimmer era, where the Vikings had some bizarre struggles against backup quarterbacks. Between 2019 and 2021, they lost to the Chiefs' Matt Moore, the Bears' Chase Daniel, and both Andy Dalton and Cooper Rush with the Cowboys. Under Brian Flores, there's little reason to expect that to still be the case. The Vikings handled the Colts' Joe Flacco (whether he's technically a backup or not) quite well in last Sunday's win, holding him to 179 yards with no touchdowns and a pick.

This week, they'll face Jones, who hasn't started a game since last November. The 2021 Patriots first-round pick was a Pro Bowler as a rookie, but he threw nearly as many interceptions (23) as touchdowns (24) between 2022 and '23, so New England moved on and Jones took a job in Jacksonville as Lawrence's backup. Now he's got about as difficult of a challenge as you can have in your first start with a new team.

The Vikings' defense ranks first in DVOA by a healthy margin, second in opponent EPA per play, first in interceptions, seventh in points allowed per game, and tied for sixth in sacks (despite having a bye). Jonathan Greenard leads the NFL in pressures. Andrew Van Ginkel and Josh Metellus, among many others, have been fantastic. And this week, Minnesota could be getting top linebacker Blake Cashman back from a turf toe injury that cost him the last three games.

Jones threw for a career-high 382 yards and two touchdowns when he faced the Vikings on Thanksgiving in 2022, but that was against Ed Donatell's defense (and the Patriots still lost). He also went 0-2 against Flores' Dolphins as a rookie in '21. Jones will have some weapons to work with on Sunday — star rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr., RB Tank Bigsby, TE Evan Engram — but he could be in line for a long afternoon against Flores' aggressive, complex scheme.

2. The Cam Robinson revenge game

We've talked previously this season about the term "revenge game" and how it's often used facetiously. Well, in this case, it can be taken a bit more literally than usual. Robinson cleared concussion protocol ahead of the Jaguars' Week 8 game against the Packers, but was benched in favor of younger left tackle Walker Little, which reportedly frustrated him. A couple days later, he was traded to the Vikings, who needed a replacement for injured star Christian Darrisaw.

Just a few days after his first practice in Minnesota, Robinson went out and played well against the Colts, earning a game ball in the process. Now he gets a chance to return to Jacksonville and play against his former team, and you can bet he'll be fired up to have a strong outing and help the Vikings get the win. Robinson's primary matchup will be against Jaguars Pro Bowler Josh Hines-Allen, who ranks in the top ten in pressures and PFF grade among edge rushers this year. That should be quite the battle between former teammates who know each other well.

3. Can the Jaguars slow the Vikings' offense?

It's been a rough season for the Jaguars' defense in coordinator Ryan Nielsen's first season with the franchise. Jacksonville ranks 31st in defensive DVOA, 32nd in opponent EPA per play, 31st in yards allowed, and 30th in points allowed. Their pass defense, specifically, has been the NFL's worst (by a lot) in both DVOA and EPA. They're also tied for last with just five takeaways in nine games. That sets up nicely for Sam Darnold and his full complement of weapons — Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Addison, etc. — to have a big day on Sunday.

The Jaguars have a few quality pieces on defense, led by Hines-Allen and Travon Walker off the edge. Linebackers Devin Lloyd and Foyesade Oluokun are also good players. But the secondary — cornerbacks Tyson Campbell, Ronald Darby, Jarrian Jones; safeties Darnell Savage and Andre Cisco — has been a total mess. The defensive tackles haven't given them much either, even with former 49ers standout Arik Armstead in there.

This feels like a game where if the Vikings play up to their potential on offense, they should be able to cruise to at least 28 points, which is the average the Jaguars have surrendered this year. If they do that, it'll be rather difficult for Jones and the Jacksonville offense to keep pace.

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