Vikings-Lions preview: Big questions, key matchups, and X factors

This is one of the biggest regular season games the NFL has ever seen.

Oct 20, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) prepares for the snap against the Minnesota Vikings during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

It simply doesn't get much bigger than this. The Vikings are Lions are set for an all-time regular season showdown on Sunday night in Detroit, an epic battle between 14-2 juggernauts with so much on the line. The winner gets the No. 1 seed and all the benefits that come with it. The loser makes history as the first 14-win team to ever open the postseason on the road. Even though neither team will be eliminated, this is absolutely going to feel like a playoff game. Get your popcorn ready — and maybe a stress ball.

Two big questions

Can the Vikings slow down Jared Goff and the Lions' offense?

After the first meeting between these teams, a 31-29 Detroit win in Minneapolis in October, I wrote about how Brian Flores has a Lions problem. The Vikings have lost four straight games against the Lions, with the last three coming since Flores took over as defensive coordinator prior to last season. Ben Johnson's offense has mostly had its way with Flores' defense in all three of those matchups. They've been remarkably consistent, scoring 30-31 points behind 381-391 yards each time.

Coached by Johnson and brimming with big-time talent at every position, this Lions offense is the NFL's best by many metrics. Goff is a perfect fit for the scheme. The weapons, highlighted by Vikings killers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs, are outstanding. The offensive line is elite. The creativity is unmatched. This Vikings defense has been one of the league's best all season, but they have their hands full once again.

It'll be fascinating to see what kind of adjustments Flores makes. The Vikings have to find ways to close down the running lanes for Gibbs and disrupt the easy pitch-and-catch connections from Goff to St. Brown. Flores is known for blitzing at high rates, but Goff has destroyed Minnesota's blitzes with the quick passing game in previous meetings. At the same time, dropping seven or eight into coverage hasn't really worked either. The Vikings need to limit the Lions' explosive plays while doing what they do best, which is impact the game with sacks and takeaways. As usual, the turnover margin may end up telling the story here. The Vikings' defense has come away with at least one in every single game so far.

Conversely, can the Lions' banged-up defense slow down Minnesota?

The Lions have been a shootout machine lately, which is why this game's over-under is all the way up at 57.5. Their offense is firing on all cylinders, but their injury-depleted defense has given up 34 points to the 49ers, 48 to the Bills, and 31 to the Packers in their last three games against teams other than the Bears. Now they're going against a red-hot Vikings offense led by Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson.

Since the first meeting, Detroit has lost its top cornerback (Carlton Davis III) and its top defensive tackle (Alim McNeill), as well as linebackers Malcolm Rodriguez and Alex Anzalone (though the latter could return from IR for Sunday's game). The pass rush has been a question mark since Aidan Hutchinson's early-season injury, and the loss of McNeill puts a lot of the pressure-creating onus on ex-Viking Za'Darius Smith.

The Lions are certainly not devoid of defensive talent. Their playmaking safety trio of Kerby Joseph, Brian Branch, and Ifeatu Melifonwu can absolutely change this game. But the pass rush is iffy and they're weak at cornerback with Amik Robertson and rookie Terrion Arnold. That's not the best recipe to slow down Kevin O'Connell's explosive passing attack. If Darnold continues to play the way he has over the past couple months, the Vikings should put up some points.

Two key matchups to watch

Justin Jefferson (and the Vikings' other weapons) against the Lions' secondary

It bears repeating that Jefferson has averaged 182.5 receiving yards per game in his four career outings at Ford Field. He's the type of superstar, on track to be an all-time great, who lives for these kinds of moments and stages. After a slight midseason lull, he has at least seven catches in five consecutive games, with 540 yards and five touchdowns during that span — highlighted by his dramatic game-winner against the Seahawks a couple weeks ago. Jefferson, who is 121 yards away from making some more history, will be looking to shine in the most important regular season game of his career.

If defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and the Lions go heavy on the safety help against Jefferson, Darnold and the Vikings have other weapons they can lean on. That starts with Jordan Addison, who has seven touchdowns in the last seven games and is among the NFL's very best No. 2 receivers. He's a big-time deep ball threat who is also a pretty complete player. It's also worth noting that T.J. Hockenson didn't play in the first meeting and has been an ultra-reliable third down target for Darnold since his return to action.

One last thing here: Keep an eye on the officials when Darnold airs it out. The Vikings have gained more yardage on pass interference penalties than any other team, the Lions — who love to play man coverage — have committed more DPI penalties than any other team, and Brad Rogers' officiating crew has thrown more DPI flags per game (24 in 14 games) than any other crew.

Dan Campbell against conventional wisdom

The Lions have become known for their extreme aggressiveness since Campbell took over as their head coach. That often manifests itself in keeping the offense on the field on fourth downs, where the Lions are in the top five in both attempts and conversion rate this season. But the Vikings' defense leads the NFL by a decent margin in defending fourth downs, allowing just 11 conversions on 31 attempts this year. In the October matchup, Campbell dialed up a fake punt from his own 33 on the game's opening possession and the Vikings stuffed it with ease. Two plays later, they led 7-0.

Detroit's fourth down attempts and trick plays have worked out very well this season, but there's always some risk attached to those decisions. That adds another intriguing element to this titanic clash.

Two potential X factors

Lions WR Jameson Williams

Williams was a complete non-factor last time, losing four yards on his only touch. But the third-year receiver is a big play waiting to happen. He's scored a touchdown in three consecutive games and has five receptions of at least 50 yards this season, tied for the most in the league. The Vikings must know where Williams is at all times and keep him from getting loose for a huge gain.

Vikings LB Blake Cashman

In addition to Hockenson, the Vikings will have Cashman on the field for this game after not having him in their only two losses of the season. They're 13-0 with their standout middle linebacker on the field. Cashman wasn't named a Pro Bowler, but he's arguably been just as impactful as star outside linebackers and fellow free agent additions Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel this season. He wears the green dot and is the hub of everything for Flores in the middle of the field. Cashman rushes the passer, he stops the run, he drops into coverage, and he'll be a central part of the Vikings' plans against Gibbs and St. Brown.

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