Vikings' Mike Zimmer Given Fifth-Best Odds To Be First NFL Coach Fired in 2021

Would the Vikings fire Zimmer during the season if they get off to another awful start?

I don't know if it's accurate to say Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is "on the hot seat" heading into the 2021 season, but there's certainly a fair amount of pressure on him and GM Rick Spielman this year. It's reasonable to think that falling short of the playoffs for two straight years — which hasn't happened during the Zimmer era — could result in Minnesota's ownership making some significant changes.

The oddsmakers in Vegas seem to think those changes could even happen during the season. BetOnline recently released odds for the first NFL coach to be fired this year, and Zimmer came in with the fifth-lowest odds. Here are the top 11:

• Mike McCarthy — 15/2
• Vic Fangio — 8/1
• Matt Nagy — 17/2
• Jon Gruden — 10/1
• Mike Zimmer — 11/1
• Kliff Kingsbury, Zac Taylor — 12/1
• David Culley, Matt Rhule, Mike Vrabel — 16/1
• Matt LaFleur — 20/1

Every other coach has at least 25/1 odds.

This is just my opinion, but I'd be pretty surprised if Zimmer was fired during the season. Barring a completely disastrous start, which seems unlikely given the level of talent on this roster, I'd imagine Zimmer will get the entire season. Then, if the Vikings have missed the playoffs and the Wilfs don't like the direction things are heading in, I could see them firing Zimmer and potentially Spielman as well.

With that said, you never know. The Wilfs fired Brad Childress after a 3-7 start in 2010, replacing him with Leslie Frazier for the final six games of the season (Childress wasn't the first coach fired that year thanks to Wade Phillips, who was axed by the Cowboys after eight games). If the Vikings are somehow 1-5 at the bye week despite a relatively weak schedule (@CIN, @ARI, SEA, CLE, DET, @CAR) — which would be their second consecutive 1-5 start — it's not out of the question that Zimmer could be gone.

Zimmer, who is known as a defensive mastermind, will no longer have the excuses of injuries and inexperience on that side of the ball. The Vikings brought in Dalvin Tomlinson, Patrick Peterson, Xavier Woods, and Mackensie Alexander in free agency and will get back Danielle Hunter, Anthony Barr, and Michael Pierce after that trio missed essentially all of last season. That's seven impact additions to join Harrison Smith, Eric Kendricks, and Cameron Dantzler (who should theoretically be better in his second season).

Offensively, it'll be interesting to see how much freedom Zimmer gives new OC Klint Kubiak. If Minnesota remains overly conservative on offense despite having Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Irv Smith Jr. as pass-catching weapons, that will likely be due to decisions made by Zimmer moreso than Kubiak. If Zimmer keeps rookies Christian Darrisaw and Wyatt Davis on the bench and the offensive line struggles, that could be another strike against him.

What I'm saying is that there are definitely ways the season could go wrong that would reflect poorly on Zimmer in the eyes of the Wilfs. 

But even given that context, I think the chances of Zimmer being fired prior to the Monday after the final game of the year are very low. The Vikings are too talented to be truly awful this year, and let's not overlook the fact that Zimmer is a good coach. There's a reason he has the third-best winning percentage (.576) of any coach in franchise history and is the seventh-longest tenured coach in the league.

If you want to bet on this one, I think Gruden at 10 to 1 odds and Kingsbury at 12 to 1 are pretty good value. Zimmer being the first head coach to get the ax this year would shock me.

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